i love Justify, but he is a big time bet against on Belmont day

[Nitro]

I’ll jump in with a little red board fun bet that I made today with Justify/All/All for a very lucky Triple return. With the conditions and small field today I personally felt that Justify was a lock if everything went without any issues. I really didn’t anticipate it being that close at the wire.

But I personally agree with anyone who throws Justify out of even the Top 2 winning positions in the Belmont. He’s been exposed now as a tired animal, and without having the proper foundation it’s very doubtful he’ll be able to perform at its best on big sandy. You may disagree with the following but:
Had the Preakness been 1 & ¼ miles he loses. (Bravazzo probably wins)
Had the Derby been 1 & ½ miles he loses. (Audible probably wins)

I’ll take my chances in the Belmont (no matter what the track conditions are) and say unequivocally that Justify is a bet against. That is of course only if the field has more than 5 entries.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

1991: In 73 days, Farma Way won an allowance, the Grade 2 San Carlos (7f), the Grade 2 San Pasqual (8.5f), the Grade 2 San Antonio (9f), and the Grade 1 Big Cap (10f) in succession.

1990: In 84 days, Criminal Type won the Pimlico Special, the Met Mile, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Whitney (all Grade 1) in succession. Earlier in the year, in 77 days, he won 2 allowances, the San Pasqual, the San Antonio, and ran 2nd in the Big Cap.

1996: In 70 days, Alphabet Soup won the Pat O’Brien (G3), ran 2nd in the Del Mar BC (G2), won the Goodwood (G2, DQ’d), and won the BC Classic (G1).

1997-98: In roughly 90 days, Silver Charm ran 2nd in the Malibu (G1), won the San Fernando (G2), won the Strub (G2), and won the Dubai World Cup. At 3, in 98 days, he won the San Vicente, placed in the San Felipe and SA Derby, won the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

1992: In 82 days, Best Pal won the San Fernando (G2), the Strub (G1), the Big Cap (G1), and the Oaklawn Handicap (G1).

1997: In roughly 90 days, Formal Gold won the Brooklyn, placed in the Suburban and Whitney, won the Iselin, and won the Woodward. Also won his first 4 starts (maiden, 3 allowances) and ran 2nd in the Pennsylvania Derby in about 80 days.

1998: In 120 days, Skip Away won the Pimlico Special, the Mass Cap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Iselin, and the Woodward.

2016: In 81 days, Arrogate won a maiden, 2 allowances, and the Travers.

1995: In 103 days, Thunder Gulch won the Derby, placed in the Preakness, won the Belmont, won the Swaps, and won the Travers.

1999: In 82 days, Silverbulletday won the Davona Dale, the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Ashland, the Kentucky Oaks, and the Black Eyed Susan.

2008: In 103 days, Rachel Alexandra won the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Fantasy, the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose.

1998: In 89 days, Awesome Again won the Whitney, the Saratoga BC, the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and the BC Classic.

2005: In 96 days, Afleet Alex won the Mountain Valley, ran 6th in the Rebel, won the Arkansas Derby, ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness, won the Belmont.

2004: In 77 days, Smarty Jones won the Southwest, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

2007: In 106 days, Curlin won a maiden, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, placed in the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

The average lifespan for a Thoroughbred is 25-28-30.

Afleet Alex done by Spring at 3 years old
Smarty Jones done by Spring at 3 years old
Thunder Gulch done by Fall at 3 years old
American Pharoah done by Fall at 3 years old
Formal Gold done by Fall at 4 years old
Silverbulletday done by Spring at 4 years old
Pharma Way done by Fall at 4 years old
Arrogate done by Fall at 4 years old
Curlin done by Fall at 4 years old
Rachel Alexandra done by Fall at 4 years old
Awesome Gain done by Fall at 4 years old

Most of these raced 2 years total. Very few who are raced like this are still on the track at 5. In your list there were about 4?

That means they must be cared for, 24/7, standing around for about 22-27 years on average if they are not getting breeding fees.....

Everyone keeps saying the breeders are breeding too many horses, ,but it seems like many of our TBs who are over-raced don't have very long careers.

I talk to people who don't even remember horses who ran their hearts out in the KY Derby from just a few years ago, if they didn't run ITM.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

The pace was 140 Timeform, that is fast at that distance. It felt controlled probably to him after that Derby.

He didn't sound evasive, unlike Smith, who was barely intelligible, he sounded sincere. I guess for me, I have to put more weight on the perspective of the participant, not the observer. He could feel his horse under him and Justify beside him, CJ couldn't.

As an aside, Smith's comments fit better as an excuse as to why Justify lunged into Good Magic at the top of the stretch, rather than as an answer to the question asked. All that stuff about the track being too narrow, wtf?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by papillon

He didn't sound evasive, unlike Smith, who was barely intelligible, he sounded sincere. I guess for me, I have to put more weight on the perspective of the participant, not the observer. He could feel his horse under him and Justify beside him, CJ couldn't.

As an aside, Smith's comments fit better as an excuse as to why Justify lunged into Good Magic at the top of the stretch, rather than as an answer to the question asked. All that stuff about the track being too narrow, wtf?

once piece of advice, dont listen to riders..... period.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by metro

Would add in American Pharoah who in the span of 84 days won the Rebel, Ark Derby, KY Derby, Preakness and Belmont.

Yeah, that was a glaring omission to say the least, especially since he fit the full criteria. Thanks.

There's got to be many more. Maybe Cigar, Summer Squall, Kotashaan, etc.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Everyone keeps saying the breeders are breeding too many horses, ,but it seems like many of our TBs who are over-raced don't have very long careers.

And there are many others who are under-raced and don't have very long careers, either. Who knows what's happening behind the scenes with those types?

But, yes, these sorts of highly concentrated campaigns at the top level ultimately undo the horse in one way or another. Most of the above were felled by injury or went off form badly relative to their respective peaks.

I talk to people who don't even remember horses who ran their hearts out in the KY Derby from just a few years ago, if they didn't run ITM.

Even worse is some of the subsequent careers of those Derby also-rans. A lot horses that don't make the grade for the breeding shed, simply keep running. They have long careers...but in a bad way for the most part.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

once piece of advice, dont listen to riders..... period.

Exactly!!!!!

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I dont think the issue for Justify is running at two

Its being asked for his top efforts in a very compacted period. He had to win the maiden, he had to win the Alw, he could maybe have gotten there with a second at SA, then win the Derby, and now the Preakness

No margin for error and no breathers.

I would like to see some comparisons, all horses of every age, with a similar set of graded races (3 grade 1's) and two other races in 90 days. Now a 5th at 110 days.

Probably have to go back to the early 80's. Unheard of in modern racing from my, albeit, average memory.

How many days between American Pharaoh's Rebel and Belmont?

Rebel
Arkansas Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness
Belmont

[clicknow]

Didn't Mubtaahij have a somewhat arduous racing schedule when he came over for the derby? I think he ran 2 back to back races that were about Preakness length, in the same month?

Maybe I'm thinking of another horse, too tired to look it up.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

How many days between American Pharaoh's Rebel and Belmont?

Rebel
Arkansas Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness
Belmont

This is 6 though!!!

[Rex Phinney]

Justify is not going to have to work early on in the Belmont as he did today.

Of course Bravaso and others looked great closing but that’s only because they had Good Magic to soften Justify up. I don’t think there is anyone else in this crop who can push him that hard that long. I don’t think Good Magic will run in the Belmont, this poses a problem if you’re trying to beat Justify.

The way the Belmont is run these days is slow to start and even slower to finish. The guts that Justify showed today tells me betting against him could be a mistake. Those conditions today where awful, and it’s the second time in 14 days he’s dealt with it and he hasn’t blinked yet.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by cj

How many days between American Pharaoh's Rebel and Belmont?

Rebel
Arkansas Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness
Belmont

84 days?

[depalma113]

I didn't get to play this weekend because my father passed away. Way too many important family issues to deal with to worry about betting a horse race. I did get to watch it though. Good race.

I did post somewhere last week that I thought it was a race between Justify and Good Magic with Bravazo as the only horse with a chance to pull the upset. So I don't get any money this week, but I'm happy my handicapping was spot on and I needed a little happy right now.

[JustRalph]

Condolences.......

[Thomas Roulston]

Instilled Regard all the way in the Belmont - provided that it's a dry track.