The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code

Excerpt:

If everyday bettors found out that foreign computer nerds were siphoning millions, they might bring down the system

Excerpt:

Benter has few regrets. One relates to an attempt in the early 1990s to create a model for betting on baseball. He spent three summers developing the system and only broke even—for him, a stinging professional defeat. America’s pastime was just too unpredictable.

That failure, however, led to a second period of his career as lucrative as Hong Kong was. He worked with one of his baseball backers to start betting on U.S. horse racing. Parimutuel tracks are scattered around the country, and by the late 1990s it became easier to amass data on a lot of them. The U.S. business took off just as competition began eroding profits in Hong Kong. “There is a golden age for a particular market,” he said, fiddling with a stack of decommissioned casino chips. “When there aren’t many computer players, the guy with the best system can have a huge advantage.”

[PaceAdvantage]

This should be required reading for anyone who ever comes on here again and tries to tell us these whales are myths or that nobody can beat the game with an algorithm (they must be past posting), or whatever other nonsense people like to spout who can't fathom that smart folks with computers can absolutely make a killing at this game.

[JerryBoyle]

I'm not sure if I'm happy or deeply concerned that he's still betting and in the US...

[PaceAdvantage]

Alan Woods was a member here, by the way. His name on here was entropy.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Alan Woods was a member here, by the way. His name on here was entropy.

Well, I normally don't get involved in the personal stuff here but I will note that it's a shame Mr. Woods passed before having the chance to absorb LoneF's handicapping expertise.

Also, I didn't realize Benter was still involved with horse racing. I thought he was devoting all his time to his medical transcription company and philanthropy.

[jay68802]

Positive returns at the track.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code

Excerpt:

If everyday bettors found out that foreign computer nerds were siphoning millions, they might bring down the system

Excerpt:

Benter has few regrets. One relates to an attempt in the early 1990s to create a model for betting on baseball. He spent three summers developing the system and only broke even—for him, a stinging professional defeat. America’s pastime was just too unpredictable.

That failure, however, led to a second period of his career as lucrative as Hong Kong was. He worked with one of his baseball backers to start betting on U.S. horse racing. Parimutuel tracks are scattered around the country, and by the late 1990s it became easier to amass data on a lot of them. The U.S. business took off just as competition began eroding profits in Hong Kong. “There is a golden age for a particular market,” he said, fiddling with a stack of decommissioned casino chips. “When there aren’t many computer players, the guy with the best system can have a huge advantage.”

Nice lesson for all the sports betting addicts I know from among the horseplayer and poker player populations.

If this guy couldn't find an edge betting baseball, you don't have one.

[PaceAdvantage]

I thought this was one of the scariest lines from the piece:

"Thirty-two years after he first arrived in Hong Kong, Benter is still betting on horses at venues around the world. He can see the odds change in the seconds before a race as all the computer players place their bets at the same time, and he’s amazed he can still win."

If Benter is amazed he can still win despite the all the CRWs pouring money in at the last second, that doesn't leave much hope for the rest of us, who aren't anywhere near Benter's level...

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I thought this was one of the scariest lines from the piece:

"Thirty-two years after he first arrived in Hong Kong, Benter is still betting on horses at venues around the world. He can see the odds change in the seconds before a race as all the computer players place their bets at the same time, and he’s amazed he can still win."

If Benter is amazed he can still win despite the all the CRWs pouring money in at the last second, that doesn't leave much hope for the rest of us, who aren't anywhere near Benter's level...

He can see odds change it the seconds before a race begins. And the average player is watching the odds change once every 15 seconds or so. Like the old saying goes "You have to spend money to make money".

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by jay68802

He can see odds change it the seconds before a race begins. And the average player is watching the odds change once every 15 seconds or so. Like the old saying goes "You have to spend money to make money".

I didn't interpret his quote that way, but I knew at least one person would...

I see odds change in the seconds before a race begins...every single race I watch.

[jay68802]

I wasn't quite sure myself so I went with the fun way.

[lamboy]

it should be noted that his syndicate hit the Triple Trio after a 6 day carryover. When did they start betting into the pool? It's safe to assume they took a stab after the 3rd day's carryover which meant they bet and missed. Wouldn't they outlay a reasonable amount to hit it since they admittedly wanted to avoid the publicity? My point is - despite his considerable resources they still didn't connect so that leaves the rest of us dart throwers a chance to occasionally get a hit. Additionally, why did it take him this long to start exploring the impact of trainer changes??

[Denny]

If people have figured out how to beat the races, all the power to them.

Makes no difference to me whatsoever.

Adapt.

[Tom]

No one has proved to me that money is not pouring in after the gates open.
Or pouring out after.

[Andy Asaro]

He's profitable because of the enormous rebates he gets. My understanding that without the rebates he would have lost about 2% on average. I could be wrong but not mentioning the rebates in the article was malpractice IMO.

But he walked home with the money and that's all that matters when it's all said and done.