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03-22-2018, 02:46 AM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
As Tom Ainslie so wisely stated..."After every race, another system is born".
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Yawn. Now your sleepiness is making me sleeping. But I'll remain awake on this one.
The original poster asked any of us to look at the PPs and come up with a "cogent argument" of how Uncle B could have possibly won the race.
I never suggested I bet on him or predicted the outcome beforehand. To me this was a review exercise...something I thought most handicappers did to improve.
Of course, if you think you know all and everything already, I suppose you don't have to stay up and waste your time...you can simply just go back to sleep.
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03-22-2018, 02:49 AM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I wonder if YOUR machine works as well BEFORE the race as it does in "hindsight".
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Now that you admitted that my argument was indeed "cogent", my future can only be that much brighter.
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03-22-2018, 02:55 AM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Yawn. Now your sleepiness is making me sleeping. But I'll remain awake on this one.
The original poster asked any of us to look at the PPs and come up with a "cogent argument" of how Uncle B could have possibly won the race.
I never suggested I bet on him or predicted the outcome beforehand. To me this was a review exercise...something I thought most handicappers did to improve.
Of course, if you think you know all and everything already, I suppose you don't have to stay up and waste your time...you can simply just go back to sleep.
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Hold on...YOU are the one who told me to "change my machine"...but I am the one who "knows all and everything"?
__________________
Live to play another day.
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03-22-2018, 02:55 AM
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#34
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by affirmedny
if only you had "direct access to the pools" then you'd have seen it.....
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Seen what? I was watching the race...fairly certain Uncle B was being bet like a good thing the whole time.
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03-22-2018, 03:08 AM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Now that you admitted that my argument was indeed "cogent", my future can only be that much brighter.
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I've read enough of your posts here to know how "cogent" your arguments can get. But, since this is an open discussion about an interesting handicapping issue...I thought I'd try and present a counter-argument of my own. As I said before...we have differing handicapping opinions...and, deciding which one of us needs to "change his machine" isn't an easy matter.
I, personally, enjoy these kinds of handicapping "arguments"...and I sincerely hope that you feel the same. No "malice" was intended here on my part...of that I assure you.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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03-22-2018, 03:36 AM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,662
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Often times you can't put numbers on the horses in the race and for that matter the strength of the prior races may be compromised due to the pace. That is why handicapping is so very hard to so. If you can find a sweetspot between thosr 2 variables you have something that will overvome a lot
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03-22-2018, 03:43 AM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
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Quote:
I, personally, enjoy these kinds of handicapping "arguments"...and I sincerely hope that you feel the same. No "malice" was intended here on my part...of that I assure you.
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I'm with you on this. And I didn't detect any malice...maybe a bit of condescension though.
The whole "machine" thing by the way was not meant as a dig at your handicapping skills...more of a throwaway riff off your avatar.
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03-22-2018, 03:50 AM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
I'm with you on this. And I didn't detect any malice...maybe a bit of condescension though.
The whole "machine" thing by the way was not meant as a dig at your handicapping skills...more of a throwaway riff off your avatar.
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I sensed that from your "all and everything" reference...but I wasn't sure.
And...no "condescension" was intended either, on my part...and I apologise if it came across as such. I am wrong much too often in this game to consider myself anything more than a "perpetual student".
__________________
Live to play another day.
Last edited by thaskalos; 03-22-2018 at 03:55 AM.
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03-22-2018, 04:38 AM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
If you can put your hands on the PPs for today's eighth race at Gulfstream Park, I want someone to put together a cogent argument for how in the world the following happened:
- Uncle B won the race
- Most shocking, how he went off as the 3-1 second choice
Discuss.
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1- UNCLE B set the NTR for newly-introduced About 7 1/2f in his last outing (2/24/18).
2. The final time of that race (1:28.04) was indeed a serious one. Stakes winners at this distance have produced slower times so I definitely think the horse belonged. His effort was good in that race.
3- The field quality, overall, didn't appear to be out of his reach based on the race conditions and horses entered. It wasn't as if he was facing graded-types. OC30/SAL16k was pretty much within his reach. Looked like a good spot for an improving horse coming off sharp record-setting effort.
4- Stretch-out was no concern as sharp winners of 7 1/2f races can easily stretch out to up-to 1 1/8m without any difficulty.
5- That 15/1 ML looked totally ridiculous given the facts above. 3/1 might be a little low. 5/1 would've been more reasonable but I think there were some barn action there as well in addition to very obvious overlay plays.
Last edited by GBL; 03-22-2018 at 04:52 AM.
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03-22-2018, 07:49 AM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 4,149
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The recent claim seems to be the thing about this one. LK is a trainer to watch.
I looked on thorograph RedBoard Room and the 7 earned an 8 in prior race while the 3 earned a 9 that day. Others had run faster though.
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03-22-2018, 08:40 AM
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#41
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
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It's Gulfstream.
What did you expect, honest racing?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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03-22-2018, 11:01 AM
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#42
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,363
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I just don't get how this horse went off at 3-1.
His last race speed figure was a real cut or two below practically the rest of the field. This was one of the toughest fields he had ever faced on the turf and he was stretching out to boot.
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BRIS disagrees with this. Their speed figures had his last race a cut or two above the entire field except Royal Blessing.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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03-22-2018, 11:51 AM
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#43
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by therussmeister
BRIS disagrees with this. Their speed figures had his last race a cut or two above the entire field except Royal Blessing.
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Everyone must be using BRIS then...because both Beyer and TFUS didn't see it that way...
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03-22-2018, 11:54 AM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 100
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If you look at his last race it will answer your question. He was sharp, he was bet to EVEN money, he had Irad and Irad stayed. The ml was a obvious joke, an could be seen thru obviously when he goes off 3/1. Also look thru his pps he has been bet down to 3-1 or less in 4 of his previous 5 races. Also just how much of a class jump was this race.
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03-22-2018, 12:05 PM
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#45
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shout1966
If you look at his last race it will answer your question. He was sharp, he was bet to EVEN money, he had Irad and Irad stayed. The ml was a obvious joke, an could be seen thru obviously when he goes off 3/1. Also look thru his pps he has been bet down to 3-1 or less in 4 of his previous 5 races. Also just how much of a class jump was this race.
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All I did was look at his last race...still can't believe the BS.
The field yesterday towered over what he faced in his last.
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