Comparing race conditions, little help

[olelucky]

Hey all,

I get a little stumped when comparing race conditions and which should be a better field.

Looking at races coming up at Keeneland there is a 20k Claiming N2L for 3+, how should that race compare to a 30K open Claiming for 3 year olds only. For instance if you had a 3 year old with only 1 win would the 20k restricted with older horses be a tougher spot than the 30k without restrictions but for only 3 year olds.

[arw629]

Originally Posted by olelucky

Hey all,

I get a little stumped when comparing race conditions and which should be a better field.

Looking at races coming up at Keeneland there is a 20k Claiming N2L for 3+, how should that race compare to a 30K open Claiming for 3 year olds only. For instance if you had a 3 year old with only 1 win would the 20k restricted with older horses be a tougher spot than the 30k without restrictions but for only 3 year olds.

What are the purses for the race? Often times they can be a lot different than the claiming prices

[olelucky]

22k for 20 claimer and 28k for 30 claimer

[sour grapes]

i view open claimers as a higher class,Nw of 2 claimer are generally horses that have won a maiden claimer and are looking for a pretty soft spot normally even dropping in price as once you clear the maiden race you have less value as you have lost that condition.

[olelucky]

Appreciate the input, my confusions comes with the age difference, this time of year with young 3 year olds, does it matter that much running against older in the restricted race for less money. I thought the 2 might kind of even each other out and the class of race would be similar.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by olelucky

Appreciate the input, my confusions comes with the age difference, this time of year with young 3 year olds, does it matter that much running against older in the restricted race for less money. I thought the 2 might kind of even each other out and the class of race would be similar.

For class, speed and pace ratings, I compare 2YO to 2YO only all year and do not play 2YO races before July 4th. I compare 3YO to 3YO only until Labor Day.

After maiden and stakes races I don't often read the conditions like I used to unless there is an odd weight or winners condition being met. For the rest I rely on the equibase race ratings to be properly adjusted and use the class ratings accordingly. Pretty standard advice I have kept from the earliest days of my experience with handicapping. Good question btw.

[ultracapper]

A good tip is to always make a 3yo prove it against older before ever taking it seriously, regardless of the class conditions. 3yo first time against older are bankroll busters as a rule.

This time of the year, I'd give a little class advantage to the N2L for older.

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by olelucky

Hey all,

I get a little stumped when comparing race conditions and which should be a better field.

Looking at races coming up at Keeneland there is a 20k Claiming N2L for 3+, how should that race compare to a 30K open Claiming for 3 year olds only. For instance if you had a 3 year old with only 1 win would the 20k restricted with older horses be a tougher spot than the 30k without restrictions but for only 3 year olds.

I make a class ability number as part of my handicapping, and I made a chart to compare classes to make my figuring easier.

In your example I rate the open $30 as 4 levels higher than $20k nw2L.

My chart uses 20% difference per class level with 2 points lower for nw2L, one point lower for nw3L, and 3 points lower for state bred races.

So if your $30k race was limited to state breds nw3L I would rate it as equal to the open $20k nw2L.

I only use purse values for allowance, stakes, and MSW races.

[olelucky]

So the 3 yr old only vs the 3+ has no significance to you

[Murph]

Originally Posted by olelucky

So the 3 yr old only vs the 3+ has no significance to you

Not until later in the year in September. If a 3yo ends up facing older horses before then, I discount his/her chances.

[olelucky]

what about you John, does the 3 vs the 3+ not matter in your rating system?

[plainolebill]

N2L claimers are for horses that don't have much of a future, in Socal they aren't even good enough to run in those N2L starters.

Three year olds are competitive if they haven't proven themselves members of the legion of horribles. The 3yo only race can have horses with multiple wins.

I don't have any rules about age groups, I like it when 3yos start running against the stale 4yos.

[chadk66]

as a trainer I lived by this rule. never run a three year old against older horses unless you have no choice and it's very late in the year. this time of the year a three year old will get destroyed by older horses unless he's twice the best horse in the race.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by chadk66

as a trainer I lived by this rule. never run a three year old against older horses unless you have no choice and it's very late in the year. this time of the year a three year old will get destroyed by older horses unless he's twice the best horse in the race.

I have long applied your advice to my handicapping.

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by olelucky

what about you John, does the 3 vs the 3+ not matter in your rating system?

No, not when I make my ratings.

I do realize that the Kentucky Derby should not be rated as highly as the BC Classic, since the former is limited to 3 year olds. But I rate them as equal Grade 1 races.

My ratings, adapted from Scott's Performance Class Ratings, factor not only class, but field size, and how they ran at the finish against their competition.

So while the class adjustment is important, keeping it simple does not greatly effect my ratings.