Belmont Prediction

[dietant]

Order of Finish:
tri box
9 Revolutionary, 13 Unlimited Budget, 12 Palace Malice, 3 Overanalize.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by keithw84

I'm tossing both. I used to always bet the horse who I thought was 2nd or 3rd best in the Derby (e.g. Nehro) or who underperformed in the Derby to win the Belmont, and that strategy didn't do much for me. Of the Derby runners, I only like Overanalyze, and I will throw Orb in there too. Out of the newcomers to the TC races, I like Freedom Child. Planning to box all three in an exacta and bet Overanalyze WPS

Orb represents a tricky call.

The disadvantages I can see on him have to do with the third consecutive TC race which represents a very demanding task and the fact that perhaps he need a faster than average pace to fully present his effectiveness.

Beyond these, he is classier horse in the group (and probably of his age so far) and seeing him starting again means that he is in top shape. I was expecting him to dislike Baltimore based in his running style, pedigree and some reaction to his Derby performance but tomorrow's race makes he a prime contender again, especially over the wet track that we most likely we will have.

As I said before, the crowd will most likely underestimate his chances and send him to the post with slightly longer odds than what he deserves making him the 'pale' favorite of the race. In any race I would rather have a very clear crowd's opinion, concentrated to a single starter at odds on if possible (like in Big Brown ) rather than a favorite in his almost correct odds...

What is going to be decisive for my final bet will be the way the second tier horses are going to be perceived by the crowd. Golden Soul, Oxbow and Freedom Child can easily create a current of optimism among the bettors who will try desperately to beat Orb, opening the window for a large payout if all three of them will be proven 'empty' as I expect. Under this assumption and considering the large field this race can produce either large payouts (if Orb manages to run in the money) or even boxcars if he disappears from the board...

In anyway I am thinking about this race, the filly is always a factor and I hope she can repeat what Rags To Riches did several years ago..

[Dahoss2002]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i think FREEDOM CHILD gets it all. i would be in complete shock if that horse is not in the mix.

[LAP_520]

Looking at

#2 FREEDOM CHILD ( should get out in front... hoping he saves enough for the last 1/8 of a mile. Has stayed with ORB and REVOLUTIONARY in an earlier career race. Owners could only dream of "what would of been if he was able to get into K.D.)

#6 INCOGNITO ( would of been Mike Luzzi's ride)

#10 WILL TAKE CHARGE ( D W Lukas big boy on a monster track )

#11 VYJACK ( Rudy's charge )

#12 PALACE MALICE ( got to give Mike another chance on this hard trying fella)

#13 UNLIMITED BUDGET ( if track is still listed as anything but fast )

#4 GIANT FINISH ( if the race falls apart, Prado has been there before to light up the toteboard .. also has Dutrow in his corner )


Mixing and pairing...

Good Luck

[Phantombridgejumpe]

2/5 with
2/3/5/9 with
2/3/5/6/7/9/10/11/12/13/14 with
2/3/5/6/7/9/10/11/12/13/14

$43.20 Super needs to pay about $865 for
me to profit

Not one of my better plays ever, but what the heck

[Lord Longshot]

Exacta Box
WPS
Win
.10 cent Super Box

[CSR]

Small exacta in the slop and that's it for me.

/

[PhantomOnTour]

exacta:
w
w

win:

[iceknight]

WP on Will Take Charge and Overanalyze and Win bet on Revolutionary (if odds are more than 5-1)

Relatively fresher/two freshened horses
Overanalyze, Midnight Taboo (just them Langfuhr/Gulch genes), Revolutionary (<--has a nose for the wire)

*Really* good horses in mud for the long distance but maybe tired after long campaigns?
Orb, Will Take Charge

Overanalyze and Will Take Charge are here based on the trakus data analysis [from Pat Cummings' blog) from the sloppy/early fast paced derby)]
I have to think that Unlimited budget would come inside the top 4 or 5, so I will have to structure some 0.10 evil supers and throw her into those.

Exacta:
,, with
,,, and hoping that better prices comes on top!

BROOKLYN/BELMONT DOUBLE
,
with , ,

why is BC marathon winner going off at 11-1 now??? is the slop that bad?

[brdman12]

Tri- 14/ 5-9-13 $1 key-$6

Sup. wheel 5-9-13-14/ 5-9-13-14/ 5-9-10-11-13-14/ 5-9-10-11-13-14

10 cent sup $14.40

[depalma113]

Boxing the

[pandy]

I picked Revolutionary.

http://www.handicappingwinners.com/free_picks.htm

[Robert Fischer]

Contenders

FREEDOM CHILD - Top 2 races of this group.

ORB - A polished racehorse.

VYJACK - Worst trip in the Derby.

OVERANALYZE - Arkansas Derby merits respect.



Wagers

Using on top in multi-race wagers, and boxing them in exactas.

Singling Freedom Child on top in multi-race wagers, and top&bottom of in exactas.

Betting Freedom Child across the board

[Dahoss2002]

I got the double no matter who wins. 8$ worth if Freedom Child wins. Orb is obviously the worse payoff. Im gonna key 2 with 5-6-9-14 some wp money on 2, and an evil .10 super box 2-5-6-9-14

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by Some_One

Based on the early betting and further thought, Ill switch to 14