Day 1 - Breeders' Cup favorites - throw outs, or must use?

[horses4courses]

Of the 4 races BC on Friday, I will likely betting as follows:

Juvenile Turf

Throw out.
Hootenanny is the likely favorite.
Nice horse, but I won't be using him.
Several Euros, and Imperia appeal more.
The oddsboard with under 10 minutes to post will dictate
whether I have any involvement at all.


Dirt Mile

Must use.
Goldenscents will be short, and rightfully so.
Fed Biz will take plenty of action, and has a big shot.
The others? Apart from Tapiture, I can't see it happening.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Throw out.
Sunset Glow may well burn me here, but I'll take a shot.
Euros Qualify and Osaila, Graham Motion's Rainha Da Bateria,
Chad Brown's Lady Eli and Sivoliere, plus assorted longshots,
all have chances. Demand value.

Distaff

On the fence here.
Untapable will be favorite, and she'll take beating.
I may take a stand against her, though, with
Don't Tell Sophia, Iotapa, Tiz Midnight and Belle Gallantey
all having chances, plus the fact that French connections
think L'Amour De Ma Vie will handle dirt, is interesting.
If she goes off at huge odds (20-1+), I may bite.


What do you think about Friday's races?

[horses4courses]

I did make one glaring omission from the Distaff.

Close Hatches is terrific.
A win here will lock up an Eclipse award, and she could do it.
Her price, 3 or 4-1, isn't too tempting, though.

[biggestal99]

For me juvy turf comes down to two horses. Wards hoot and obriens war envoy.

Any hoss that can win at keeneland, travel to ascot, rip them there, come back to the states, than travelto france, run a bang up second in the morny, than back to the states and a trip to callie, the horse has been working lights out, no reason to think he can.t get a mile. 4-1 and he'll get some money from me.

War envoy is a stone closer who ran a big one atlongchamp and as we well know obrien hosses are live. Must use both h0ot and war envoy.

Allan

[taxicab]

The two dirt races are giving me fits.
I don't know if I want to take eighty cents on the dollar on Goldencents.
He's run 2nd in six of his last nine.
His two most recent wins came with the benefit of major track biases.
Here's the problem.....
I still haven't figured out who to try and beat him with.
For what it's worth Bronzo is 11 for 19 lifetime with a Gr. 2 & 1 blowouts in his last two.
Tapiture is an honest dude....he might be decent.
Big Bane Theory is an Artie Schiller,they run on anything......plus he's out of an Alysheba mare(good dirt breeding there).
I have it down to those three.

Two things are bothering me about Untapable.
She was all over the track in the stretch of her most recent....I never like that.
When she ran @ Santa Anita last year she was awful.
She might not like this oval.
Close Hatches still might be the one.
I never like to give up on a filly off of one bad race.

I think Imperia is easily the best 2yo grass Colt in NY......that's good enough for me in this race.
I'm with H4C.....I don't care for any of the Ward runners on Friday.

The Juvy Filly Friday is the most wide open race of the weekend......usually that means bombs away.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by taxicab

The two dirt races are giving me fits.
I don't know if I want to take eighty cents on the dollar on Goldencents.
He's run 2nd in six of his last nine.
His two most recent wins came with the benefit of major track biases.
Here's the problem.....
I still haven't figured out who to try and beat him with.
For what it's worth Bronzo is 11 for 19 lifetime with a Gr. 2 & 1 blowouts in his last two.
Tapiture is an honest dude....he might be decent.
Big Bane Theory is an Artie Schiller,they run on anything......plus he's out of an Alysheba mare(good dirt breeding there).
I have it down to those three.

Two things are bothering me about Untapable.
She was all over the track in the stretch of her most recent....I never like that.
When she ran @ Santa Anita last year she was awful.
She might not like this oval.
Close Hatches still might be the one.
I never like to give up on a filly off of one bad race.

I think Imperia is easily the best 2yo grass Colt in NY......that's good enough for me in this race.
I'm with H4C.....I don't care for any of the Ward runners on Friday.

The Juvy Filly Friday is the most wide open race of the weekend......usually that means bombs away.

Take the 80 cents on the dollar with Goldencents. A complete standout. The only horse that could possibly beat him is Fed Biz. And I give him only a 25% chance. The rest are hopelessly over matched. Bronzo should be in an allowance race. Just like Mystery Train had no business coming over here and running against top quality. Tapiture and Pants on Fire should round out the super.