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Old 02-03-2019, 01:21 PM   #16
Robert Fischer
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what a poor betting race this was, but didn't Mucho Gusto run better than a 90 Beyer?

Just 'feels' low, based on what I could see visually.

I know you can't always literally compare figs but Tax/Not Brady/Braintrust(96), and Soldado(91) are scrubs next to Mucho Gusto(90)...
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 02-03-2019 at 01:25 PM.
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Old 02-03-2019, 02:17 PM   #17
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In fairness Mucho Gusto didn't race much. It's not crazy to say Gunmetal Gray is a "scrub". His last win was meh... We haven't seen much talent from California race as 3YO thus far.
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Old 02-04-2019, 08:31 AM   #18
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Scrubs is kind of harsh but I don't think any of these are likely to hit the Derby exacta. That said, all three prep winners over the weekend were Buckpasser-x. I believe the next six horses behind Justify in last year's Derby were Buckpasser-x.
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Old 02-04-2019, 10:01 AM   #19
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It feels to me like there is a large gap between Improbable and Game Winner to the rest of the California horses this year, this winner included. I would ship to avoid those two horses if I was a trainer there.
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Old 02-04-2019, 11:21 AM   #20
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Gun metal Gray fits the mold of the horse who rounds out the derby super finishing 4th.
Or a horse like Gato del Sol or Giacomo whose consistency rewards him when there is a giant pace collapse.

Gunmetal Gray, despite not threatening the winner, displayed a powerful turn move in the Robert Lewis. He must have made up about 5 or 6 lengths around the far turn to reach the field after losing contact down the backstretch.
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Old 02-04-2019, 11:31 AM   #21
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It feels to me like there is a large gap between Improbable and Game Winner to the rest of the California horses this year, this winner included. I would ship to avoid those two horses if I was a trainer there.
Mucho Gusto was sent hard from the gate in the Los Alamitos Futurity and conveniently ended up taking out 3 of the 4 non-Baffert starters (Savagery, Extra Hope, Dueling) when coming in slightly into the first turn. Despite playing the "second stringer" in there, he did give Improbable some resistance up to the 1/16th pole.

Interestingly, Mucho Gusto is now the 3rd winner out of the Los Alamitos Futurity. Savagery, after getting fried in the Sham, wheeled back a week later and crushed by open lengths in a wet-fast allowance sprint. Extra Hope won a mile allowance race by open lengths on a sloppy track. The other 3 Los Al starters haven't run back.

In the Lewis Mucho Gusto showed a new dimension and was allowed to settle, finishing emphatically, which allays some of the fears that he's not a route-type.
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Old 02-04-2019, 01:35 PM   #22
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It feels to me like there is a large gap between Improbable and Game Winner to the rest of the California horses this year, this winner included. I would ship to avoid those two horses if I was a trainer there.
I'm starting to think there is a large gap between those two three year old colts and all the rest of them. The only other horse I was impressed with is Hidden Scroll yet he still needs a class test. It's somewhat early and a few others could yet pop as Justify did last year and Always Dreaming the previous. This makes for a logical pool 2 exacta box using the three above and the all others option.

Baffert is highly likely to spit his top two. Game Winner is targeting the San Felipe and I'd venture a guess Improbable will head for the Rebel. Baffert has annihilated the Rebel this decade winning six of the last nine renewals. Even if Game Winner dominates at Santa Anita, having Improbable at Oaklawn opens the door to score runner up Derby points without shipping. A third place finish in the Santa Anita Derby when accompanied by previous Derby points might be enough to secure a gate.
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Old 02-05-2019, 12:17 AM   #23
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Or a horse like Gato del Sol or Giacomo whose consistency rewards him when there is a giant pace collapse.

Gunmetal Gray, despite not threatening the winner, displayed a powerful turn move in the Robert Lewis. He must have made up about 5 or 6 lengths around the far turn to reach the field after losing contact down the backstretch.
His race is much BTL.
Speed played well at Santa Anita Saturday.
The inside played even better.
Of the top two coming out of that race,I think Gunmetal is the better horse.
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Old 02-05-2019, 12:21 AM   #24
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Interestingly, Mucho Gusto is now the 3rd winner out of the Los Alamitos Futurity.
For some reason the Los Al Futurity always plays strong on the exit.
The fields are never large.....but the race always produces.
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Old 02-05-2019, 12:24 PM   #25
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Or a horse like Gato del Sol or Giacomo whose consistency rewards him when there is a giant pace collapse.
The winner of the last five Kentucky Derby renewals was in the top three at every call. Perhaps it's just a streak or perhaps the nature of the horse/race is changing to favor speed but, for now, I will be leery of horses coming from off the pace for the top prize in that contest.
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Old 02-05-2019, 12:50 PM   #26
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The winner of the last five Kentucky Derby renewals was in the top three at every call. Perhaps it's just a streak or perhaps the nature of the horse/race is changing to favor speed but, for now, I will be leery of horses coming from off the pace for the top prize in that contest.
While you certainly point out a valid stat some context would be all 5 were very well bet, 2 on off tracks, and two would become triple crown winners.

I do think the points system has eliminated some of the cheaper speed, now we are left with legitimate speed horses like Justify and Promises Fulfilled.
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Old 02-06-2019, 12:20 PM   #27
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It feels to me like there is a large gap between Improbable and Game Winner to the rest of the California horses this year, this winner included. I would ship to avoid those two horses if I was a trainer there.
Forgetting about Instagrand?
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Old 02-06-2019, 02:40 PM   #28
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Forgetting about Instagrand?
The horse ran a couple blazing sprints last summer but we don't know how far this guy can go. Based on the dosage point distribution and sire I'm guessing this colt will ultimately be closer to a Promises Fulfilled type versus a classic distance winner but we shall see.

Interesting recent workout pattern: slow-fast-slow-fast. Probably getting some foundation while attempting to rate more. His first route race flashing a lot more class than he's faced will be interesting.
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