Dirt to Turf Speed

[ccmd00d]

Hi All,

In general how does dirt sprint speed transfer over to turf sprint speed? See race 3 from Tampa today, won by No Mercy Percy.

Horse had only run on Dirt and posted works only on Dirt as well. Pace Projector did predict horse would be near the lead.

Horse came out and vied for the lead, overtook the favorite in the turn and out dueled the 9 coming from off the pace. Horse did only have 7 starts and breeding suggested she was be decent in Turf sprints as well. For whatever reason I originally didn't give this horse a real look. 8-1 would have been nice!

https://imgur.com/a/Vf2k8GT

[Tom]

Interesting you posted this - I was thinking on this very topic today.
The Lecomte winner came from a slow-paced dirt race but ran credibly. Two back, he had good pace on turf, a new pace top, actually.

That is not the only race like this I have seen in recent day, so I have been re-thinking this whole situation.

Normally, I do not use any turf races to handicap dirt races, period.
But I think that whole idea needs to be re-looked at.

Interested in others opinions.

[classhandicapper]

I've done some testing on it.

I make some adjustments (downgrading turf speed relative to dirt speed) that have improved my overall pace projections a bit (tested). However, I still find a LOT of horses that showed speed on dirt that I'd expect to show even more speed in slower paced turf races that wind up showing no speed at all on turf.

At this point I'd say when I see a horse showing speed on turf, I expect a bit less speed on dirt, but when I see a horse showing speed on dirt it's more of a question mark as to what he'll do on turf than the other way around.

I'd also say it's easier for dirt speed to transfer to turf in sprints than routes.

Intuitively if the horse has shown speed on both surfaces or is clearly way better on one surface than the other, you should be able to do better than general rules, but I never actually tested that with data.

It's an interesting topic if you are trying to make pace projections. So far I don't have any really good answers.

[Tom]

Myself, I am only interested in turf speed to dirt.
Thanks for your input.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I've done some testing on it.

I make some adjustments (downgrading turf speed relative to dirt speed) that have improved my overall pace projections a bit (tested). However, I still find a LOT of horses that showed speed on dirt that I'd expect to show even more speed in slower paced turf races that wind up showing no speed at all on turf.

At this point I'd say when I see a horse showing speed on turf, I expect a bit less speed on dirt, but when I see a horse showing speed on dirt it's more of a question mark as to what he'll do on turf than the other way around.

I'd also say it's easier for dirt speed to transfer to turf in sprints than routes.

Intuitively if the horse has shown speed on both surfaces or is clearly way better on one surface than the other, you should be able to do better than general rules, but I never actually tested that with data.

It's an interesting topic if you are trying to make pace projections. So far I don't have any really good answers.

You probably remember, horses with my best early speed rating moving to turf for the first time were one of my favorite bets, and they continue to be. They have been a + ROI play for me for a long time.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by cj

You probably remember, horses with my best early speed rating moving to turf for the first time were one of my favorite bets, and they continue to be. They have been a + ROI play for me for a long time.

Flat bet them all, regardless of odds?....Is there a minimum odds requirement, and is this for all turf races, no matter the distance?

[cj]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

[/B]
Flat bet them all, regardless of odds?....Is there a minimum odds requirement, and is this for all turf races, no matter the distance?

Sorry, it was for sprints. I've given away enough though, you can take it from here. It isn't something that comes up every day.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by cj

Sorry, it was for sprints. I've given away enough though, you can take it from here. It isn't something that comes up every day.

Thanks CJ.....Might add this to tourney play if the price is high enough.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

You probably remember, horses with my best early speed rating moving to turf for the first time were one of my favorite bets, and they continue to be. They have been a + ROI play for me for a long time.

I do remember you telling me about those. That's why when I was studying it I made sure to break it out between sprints and routes too. I guess I should have been playing them all along.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Sorry, it was for sprints. I've given away enough though, you can take it from here.

Yeah man! I know you are super generous with info and data, but you have to hold back a little.

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by Tom

Myself, I am only interested in turf speed to dirt.
Thanks for your input.

Like you I don't make pace ratings for other surface races when run on another surface. But a recent race on another surface to todays I consider for conditioning.

One angle I read about and use only when going from turf to dirt, is if it runs a good or fast race within 14 days of todays race. I rate it a super workout.

[jay68802]

With more turf races being carded now days, we are getting more horses going from dirt to turf. And are getting more turf races with cheaper conditions. To me, it would be logical that the races would be run more like dirt races than turf races. And more races would be won by horses showing a high early speed rating. Just a theory on this.