Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 03-22-2018, 11:20 AM   #1
Immortal6
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
Race 4 GP 3/22

Inspired by the thread in general racing talk about the major bet down, and subsequent easy win by Irad on Mr B yesterday, I'd like to get others insights into how they handicap the dreaded "about" 7.5 furlong turf races at GP. At first glance this field of 8 seems to be pretty competitive, when I have a minute over my lunch break I'll take a closer look at it and give my two cents. Thanks and GL to all!
Immortal6 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-22-2018, 11:57 AM   #2
shout1966
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 100
post the pp's if you have them plz.
shout1966 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-22-2018, 12:13 PM   #3
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
Two horse, chalky race.

My fair odds line:

8/5
9/5

Value clearly lies with Conquest Dynasty if that one goes off near M/L.

New trainer looking to get rid of the this quickly? And at a cut-rate deal?

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 03-22-2018 at 12:16 PM.
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-22-2018, 12:20 PM   #4
Immortal6
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
Quote:
Originally Posted by shout1966 View Post
post the pp's if you have them plz.
Google down the stretches free pps, sorry too hard to link from mobile.
Immortal6 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-22-2018, 12:21 PM   #5
Immortal6
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Two horse, chalky race.

My fair odds line:

8/5
9/5

Value clearly lies with Conquest Dynasty if that one goes off near M/L.

New trainer looking to get rid of the this quickly? And at a cut-rate deal?
I think you might be looking at yesterday's 4th race that I'm fairly positive conquest dynasty won at 5/2
Immortal6 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-22-2018, 12:40 PM   #6
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6 View Post
I think you might be looking at yesterday's 4th race that I'm fairly positive conquest dynasty won at 5/2
HAH! You're right...

Good thing I don't have a bet until 2:30 at Oaklawn on the agenda...(or maybe I don't!)
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-22-2018, 12:52 PM   #7
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
Found the right race...

7/5
5/2
5/1

Don't think the will go off much below M/L...seems vulnerable here chasing the , he doesn't seem to win unless he gets a nice easy lead. Even though my line says 7/5, I don't think I'd bet this one at 5/1 (computers aren't perfect, obviously).

Don't really like the other two all that much either after looking at their PPs.

I might actually go out on a big limb and throw my line away and just bet the at 30-1 on the M/L, only because he seems to have the best closing fig in the race, and that might be all that's needed to beat this kind of race today.
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-22-2018, 01:14 PM   #8
Immortal6
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
My Take:

The look like they need to be sent hard early to have much of a shot and don't look like they can sustain their speed. The with Irad intrigues me but his record at the distance and at GP make me say pass (from the win spot). is a toss. The looks like it needs a shorter distance, toss from win spot, maybe use underneath. That leaves us with the 2 ML favorites and .

Of these two I like the the best, come off a good race and a decent work. Out of 19 tries at the distance is 7-2-3. However he will likely be co-favorite with the I'll have to find some value in the exotics.

//
//
Immortal6 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-22-2018, 02:06 PM   #9
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Found the right race...

7/5
5/2
5/1

Don't think the will go off much below M/L...seems vulnerable here chasing the , he doesn't seem to win unless he gets a nice easy lead. Even though my line says 7/5, I don't think I'd bet this one at 5/1 (computers aren't perfect, obviously).

Don't really like the other two all that much either after looking at their PPs.

I might actually go out on a big limb and throw my line away and just bet the at 30-1 on the M/L, only because he seems to have the best closing fig in the race, and that might be all that's needed to beat this kind of race today.
Well, I'm right so far in that the isn't taking any action...yet...at 0mtp he's 5/2....

The and are too juicy to pass up here...those are my plays
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-22-2018, 02:13 PM   #10
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
Should have stuck with the line I made for yesterday's 4th....
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-22-2018, 02:23 PM   #11
Pensacola Pete
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 729
I would have selected 8-1 in that order, neither at the odds that were offered.
Pensacola Pete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:28 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.