ML Odds Makers

[The Hawk]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

So...if the DRF isn't the most popular handicapping tool (and it is NOT)...why should we think that the Beyer figures are the "money movers" that you portray them to be?

Whoever says that any one factor is accountable for "driving the betting" is greatly underestimating the collective sophistication of the betting public. And the betting public has proven to be the sort of formidable opponent who should not be underestimated.

They are the money movers because they are the most widely available creditable figures around. And Beyer figures are the standard by which horses are measured, as you may have seen in nearly every commercial made of late for sires. More people may have Equibase PP's in their hands but you'll have a hard time convincing me -- or anyone -- that big players are betting big money solely using Equibase figures.

So on one hand you say the betting public is sophisticated and on the other you're saying they are driving the betting with Equibase PP's? You can't honestly believe that.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by The Hawk

They are the money movers because they are the most widely available creditable figures around. And Beyer figures are the standard by which horses are measured, as you may have seen in nearly every commercial made of late for sires. More people may have Equibase PP's in their hands but you'll have a hard time convincing me -- or anyone -- that big players are betting big money solely using Equibase figures.

So on one hand you say the betting public is sophisticated and on the other you're saying they are driving the betting with Equibase PP's? You can't honestly believe that.

I never said that the betting public is using the Equibase figures instead of the Beyers to "drive the betting". The speed figures are only a PART of the handicapping process...and the "big players who are betting the big money", whom you mention above...KNOW better than to over-rely on these speed figures when they commit their money to this game. Even Beyer himself has said that over-relying on the Beyer figures is the "road to ruin".

The betting public, as a whole, has become more rounded in their handicapping...and no single factor is enough to "drive the betting" anymore. Unless it's some sort of "inside information"...which the public isn't privy too. There are many top-Beyer horses who are ignored in the betting...and also many horses who get well-bet for no readily apparent reason.

Those "big players" who bet blindly on the Beyers do not affect the mutuel pools to a great degree...because they can't afford to remain in the game for too long.

[The Hawk]

[QUOTE=thaskalos]I never said that the betting public is using the Equibase figures instead of the Beyers to "drive the betting".

The speed figures are only a PART of the handicapping process...and the "big players who are betting the big money", whom you mention above...KNOW better than to over-rely on these speed figures when they commit their money to this game. Even Beyer himself has said that over-relying on the Beyer figures is the "road to ruin".

So you contend that players with large bankrolls don't use Beyers at all, even as one tool?

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The betting public, as a whole, has become more rounded in their handicapping...and no single factor is enough to "drive the betting" anymore. Unless it's some sort of "inside information"...which the public isn't privy too.

Your contention is that that are many tools. No argument. I think where we disagree is I strongly feel Beyers are the biggest factor in betting. If you and I were to independently make a ML -- me using DRF and you using anything else -- my line would be much more accurate, only because I'd be using the same data that the people contributing a large percentage of the handle are using. That's where we disagree.

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There are many top-Beyer horses who are ignored in the betting...and also many horses who get well-bet for no readily apparent reason.

Many? It happens, but not that often. Not talking about one race, but horses with a clear edge in recent Beyers are rarely not favored.

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Those "big players" who bet blindly on the Beyers do not affect the mutuel pools to a great degree...because they can't afford to remain in the game for too long.

This is true, and it also proves my point. They can't make money long-term betting strictly on Beyers because they can't get prices -- because the horses with the top Beyers are what people are betting on. They're usually favored. Hence, the Beyers drive the betting.

Just curious: If you were making a Morning Line, what PP's would you use?

[thaskalos]

[QUOTE=The Hawk]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I never said that the betting public is using the Equibase figures instead of the Beyers to "drive the betting".

The speed figures are only a PART of the handicapping process...and the "big players who are betting the big money", whom you mention above...KNOW better than to over-rely on these speed figures when they commit their money to this game. Even Beyer himself has said that over-relying on the Beyer figures is the "road to ruin".

So you contend that players with large bankrolls don't use Beyers at all, even as one tool?



Your contention is that that are many tools. No argument. I think where we disagree is I strongly feel Beyers are the biggest factor in betting. If you and I were to independently make a ML -- me using DRF and you using anything else -- my line would be much more accurate, only because I'd be using the same data that the people contributing a large percentage of the handle are using. That's where we disagree.



Many? It happens, but not that often. Not talking about one race, but horses with a clear edge in recent Beyers are rarely not favored.



This is true, and it also proves my point. They can't make money long-term betting strictly on Beyers because they can't get prices -- because the horses with the top Beyers are what people are betting on. They're usually favored. Hence, the Beyers drive the betting.

Just curious: If you were making a Morning Line, what PP's would you use?

I use the DRF...but I don't even look at the Beyer Figures. The speed and pace figures that I use are my own creation.

But I will do something all of next week to prove to you how wrong you are. I will meticulously go through every race at every track of the AM Form all week...and I will note how many of the favorites sported the highest Beyer figures. But first, you have to supply me with an example of what you mean by "highest Beyer figure horse". Which horse do you consider the top Beyer figure horse in the race? The one with the best LAST RACE Beyer figure? The one with the best Beyer out of its last TWO races? The last THREE races? Which one?

[The Hawk]

[QUOTE=thaskalos]

Originally Posted by The Hawk

I use the DRF...but I don't even look at the Beyer Figures. The speed and pace figures that I use are my own creation.

But I will do something all of next week to prove to you how wrong you are. I will meticulously go through every race at every track of the AM Form all week...and I will note how many of the favorites sported the highest Beyer figures. But first, you have to supply me with an example of what you mean by "highest Beyer figure horse". Which horse do you consider the top Beyer figure horse in the race? The one with the best LAST RACE Beyer figure? The one with the best Beyer out of its last TWO races? The last THREE races? Which one?

Let's average the last three, same surface.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by The Hawk

If you and I were to independently make a ML -- me using DRF and you using anything else -- my line would be much more accurate, only because I'd be using the same data that the people contributing a large percentage of the handle are using. That's where we disagree.

OK...let's do this. Let's you and I make a ML for a handful of these races.. You will rely on the Beyer figures...and I won't even LOOK at the Beyers. Let's see who makes the most accurate morning line.

[thaskalos]

[QUOTE=The Hawk]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Let's average the last three, same surface.

No distance requirements?

[The Hawk]

[QUOTE=thaskalos]

Originally Posted by The Hawk

No distance requirements?

Sure, sprints-sprints and routes to routes.

I just looked at Turfway's races today. In seven of the nine races the horse with the best last-out Beyer was favored (too many races with recent turf form or maidens with only a few starts).

[The Hawk]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

OK...let's do this. Let's you and I make a ML for a handful of these races.. You will rely on the Beyer figures...and I won't even LOOK at the Beyers. Let's see who makes the most accurate morning line.

I like this idea, and was actually going to pitch it to you, but I don't feel like I'll have the time to commit to it at the moment. It would be an interesting exercise, surely. Maybe in a couple of weeks. But I am still curious as to what PP's you would use.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by The Hawk

I like this idea, and was actually going to pitch it to you, but I don't feel like I'll have the time to commit to it at the moment. It would be an interesting exercise, surely. Maybe in a couple of weeks. But I am still curious as to what PP's you would use.

This is an excercise in futility, anyway. One using store-bought figs, the other using his own numbers--to do what? Find out which one can make the most accurate Morning Line vs. the actual post-time odds---in a few races?

If either of you are that good, and have that much time--post up a nice longshot next week. I'll be busy

-NCG

[pandy]

The morning line is something that many tracks don't take seriously, but they should. It's a service that the track provides to the public, and if they don't have a qualified handicapper making the line, it shows a disrespect to their customers. I agree that the NYRA line is good, as it should be, since NYRA has the best racing.

I've made the line for NYRA on occasion, filling in years ago, and I found it difficult sometimes because at that time they had a three day draw and they wanted all three lines done the same day. The third day was very tough because I had to handicap off of proofs that had pp lines missing (usually the horse's last race). On that day, my line sucked, but it wasn't my fault. I believe that this is still being done at some tracks and that's why you'll see certain days when the line is bad.

[The Hawk]

Originally Posted by pandy

I've made the line for NYRA on occasion, filling in years ago, and I found it difficult sometimes because at that time they had a three day draw and they wanted all three lines done the same day. The third day was very tough because I had to handicap off of proofs that had pp lines missing (usually the horse's last race). On that day, my line sucked, but it wasn't my fault. I believe that this is still being done at some tracks and that's why you'll see certain days when the line is bad.

When you had to handicap off proofs, and you thought the line sucked, was that he day you used Equibase PP's? And what did you use otherwise, when the lines were good?

[Ocala Mike]

When did you do that for NYRA, pandy?

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by The Hawk

The Equibase figures are useless when it comes to making a ML. No serious player uses them. You may feel they are not vastly inferior, and you may be right, but the fact is that most of the money in the pools is driven by Beyer Speed Figures. Yes, the basic data all comes from EQ, but if the Beyers are what dictates the handles, and a ML maker is not using them, how could he possibly make an accurate ML? If they are making the lines based on EQ figures, and those figures vary greatly from the Beyer figures, the ML will be way off, as the betting will lean toward the Beyer figures.

That's what I love about this game. If in fact you are correct bettors lean towards Beyer figures and away from Equibase figures in the pools, then bettors that weight Equibase figures in their handicapping, or note a significant disparity in a horse's Equibase and Beyer figures as part of their process, can glean excellent value when wagering.

Personally, I like it when a horse has a high Equibase figure in a race representative of today's conditions compared to the other horses in the race and at the same time has an average Beyer figure from that same race compared to the rest.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

That's what I love about this game. If in fact you are correct bettors lean towards Beyer figures and away from Equibase figures in the pools, then bettors that weight Equibase figures in their handicapping, or note a significant disparity in a horse's Equibase and Beyer figures as part of their process, can glean excellent value when wagering.

Personally, I like it when a horse has a high Equibase figure in a race representative of today's conditions compared to the other horses in the race and at the same time has an average Beyer figure from that same race compared to the rest.

They don't glean any value because the Equibase figures are awful.