Derby Betting Strategy: Betting California Chrome

[Smarty Cide]

So now 2 weeks away from the Derby I usually like to start thinking of my betting strategy. Not necessarily exactly what horses im going to bet, but more so what kind of bets I want to make.

I have some futures bets alive:

Intense Holiday 15/1
Wildcat Red 50/1
Samraat 50/1
Uncle Sigh 75/1
Candy Boy 20/1
Midnight Hawk 25/1
Vicars In Trouble 20/1
Cairo Prince 12/1

Bayern at 75/1 but dont look like he will make it...

If any of those horses hit im getting paid 150 and upward as high as 750.

But I really think California Chrome is by far the best horse and yes, i understand its the derby and anything can happen. However im going to go all in on Chromeo here. But my question is, with odds possibly as low as 2-1 how do you bet him?

The first thing im going to do is bet a $2 ex box CC and ALL = $ 38

Then im thinking of doing some type of tri and super

for the tri something like cc w/ 10 horses w 11/horses which for $1 = $100

then some type of simalier super with a smaller amount of horses...


but was curious to others on California Chrome how were you thinking of betting him?

[Robert Fischer]

Can you picture what California Chrome's winning trip will look like ?

[Smarty Cide]

well here is the way i see it.... at least as of now without seeing the post positions...

California Chrome stalks a pace set by Wildcat Red and passes him down the stretch to pull away from the field... Wildcat Red puts up a big effort but he gets passed at the end by a closer maybe Wicked Strong. Wildcat hangs on for 3rd and some horse 'clunks up' for 4th. just passing tired horses... a horse kinda like a make music for me or went the day well... not sure who that is yet


at least thats one way i see it


but i really like Hoppertunity and Vicars in Trouble too... not sure how they play into it... yet

[bgbootha]

I really don't see CC dropping all the way to 2-1, it would be surprising to me if we see him less than 7/2.

[Smarty Cide]

at 7/2 its almost better for me to take 200 bucks and put it on him and scratch all the exotics...


on a side note, following up on my last reply... DANZA thats who clunks up for 4th... he looks like he will get better with distance...


California Chrome, Wicked Strong, Wildcat Red, Danza... super me

[Smarty Cide]

Ride On Curlin is a sneaky play on the bottom end of tri's & supers as well, he has a little Musket Man in him... if you know what i mean

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Smarty Cide

well here is the way i see it.... at least as of now without seeing the post positions...

California Chrome stalks a pace set by Wildcat Red and passes him down the stretch to pull away from the field... Wildcat Red puts up a big effort but he gets passed at the end by a closer maybe Wicked Strong. Wildcat hangs on for 3rd and some horse 'clunks up' for 4th. just passing tired horses... a horse kinda like a make music for me or went the day well... not sure who that is yet


at least thats one way i see it


but i really like Hoppertunity and Vicars in Trouble too... not sure how they play into it... yet

Betting your scenario is one way to construct some affordable extra tickets.

[Smarty Cide]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Betting your scenario is one way to construct some affordable extra tickets.

cc/ W wicked strong, hoppertunity / w wildcat red/ w chitu, danza, ride on curling

[davew]

Do you think he is a 'single'?

I like to spread on contenders of previous races and end a DD, P3, P4 on the single - depending on bets available and previous races.

[SharpCat]

If you really think California Chrome is the winner just hammer the daily double Wise Dan-California Chrome. It paid $19.80 last year Wise Dan-Orb and I would expect a similar payoff this year.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

No offense to you CC fans, but this thread is rekindling my interest in this year's Derby, which was looking like yet another suspect crop of so-so runners.

But now we have one horse with several nice races standing head and shoulders above the herd on paper, and the hype and expectations growing fast.

I won't be surprised if this year's chalk doesn't get a check.

At 4-1, California Chrome offsets the takeout, and makes this an interesting betting race indeed.

Granted, I rarely bet chalk and I'm always looking for reasons to bet against them, especially in a race like the Derby. Last year I ended up betting Overanalyze, but didn't put too much in the race because I figured Orb had a good shot to be part of it, and therefore spoil the value.

This year, the chalk is a California based horse with suspect breeding who likes to be near the front and already has 10 lifetime starts.

Many fans think CC is another Sunday Silence.

I think he might be another Houston.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

No offense to you CC fans, but this thread is rekindling my interest in this year's Derby, which was looking like yet another suspect crop of so-so runners.

But now we have one horse with several nice races standing head and shoulders above the herd on paper, and the hype and expectations growing fast.

I won't be surprised if this year's chalk doesn't get a check.

At 4-1, California Chrome offsets the takeout, and makes this an interesting betting race indeed.

Granted, I rarely bet chalk and I'm always looking for reasons to bet against them, especially in a race like the Derby. Last year I ended up betting Overanalyze, but didn't put too much in the race because I figured Orb had a good shot to be part of it, and therefore spoil the value.

This year, the chalk is a California based horse with suspect breeding who likes to be near the front and already has 10 lifetime starts.

Many fans think CC is another Sunday Silence.

I think he might be another Houston.

What's wrong with racing 10 times before the derby? It builds foundation, unlike Constitution that was forced to run a big race his 3rd time out & gets injured.

There's different type of bettors when it comes to the derby.......some always try to beat the chalk no matter what, some always bet the favorite & then you have the ones that try & find the best horse in the race looking to have a big outing, no matter if its the favorite or a 30-1 shot.

[ArlJim78]

people always seem to talk about not wanting to take the "chalk", as if win bets were the only wagering option. the wagering strategy offered here revolves around exacta's, tri's and supers, not eating 3-1 on a win bet.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by davew

Do you think he is a 'single'?

I like to spread on contenders of previous races and end a DD, P3, P4 on the single - depending on bets available and previous races.

you gonna go deep trying to beat wise Dan? Good luck

[tanner12oz]

I have a large field bet from pool 1 VERY live so I'm going to be going play roc and Cairo on top of some supers just in case..picks 4's all day long of course