2014 Kentuck Derby Trends & Angles

[SecretAgentMan]

I know there are a lot of different trends & angles that involve this race every year......if you have any to add, please do.


Last 10 years, the derby horse has been won by a Kentucky bred horse.......

20 of past 21 derby winners have raced 2 to 4 times from Jan 1st up to the derby.......

No horse has won the derby if unraced as a 2 year old since 1882.......

Every derby winner last 10 years has raced within 45 days before racing in the derby.......

9 of last 10 derby winners have won a graded stakes race at least once.......

13 out of last 14 derby winners have raced 4 to 8 times in their career entering the derby......


Please add any that you are willing to share.........

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

No horse has won the derby if unraced as a 2 year old since 1882.......

Please add any that you are willing to share.........

There is also something (and I am at work and can't look up the specifics) about a horse that didn't WIN as a 2 year old. it isn't just racing at 2, but some heavy numbers about winning at two.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

There is also something (and I am at work and can't look up the specifics) about a horse that didn't WIN as a 2 year old. it isn't just racing at 2, but some heavy numbers about winning at two.

Found one........


9 of last 10 derby winners won at least one race as a 2 year old of 7 furlongs or longer

[horses4courses]

I find trends and angles in horse racing are, by and large, overrated.
In the KY Derby, I would say that is definitely the case.

As soon as one is shot down, another one springs up like a mushroom stool.

I'll say this with emphasis, though.
Please don't let my opinion stop anyone from sending $ in on their trend of choice

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I find trends and angles in horse racing are, by and large, overrated.
In the KY Derby, I would say that is definitely the case.

As soon as one is shot down, another one springs up like a mushroom stool.

I'll say this with emphasis, though.
Please don't let my opinion stop anyone from sending $ in on their trend of choice

Agreed on all counts

[sbcaris]

I disagree: I have been using certain angles for all three legs of the Triple Crown and some of them have been very lucrative. For example, horses who carry Buckpasser in the X passing position and have raced a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race have won much more than their expected share of Derbies, Preaknesses and Belmonts and many of these winners paid off at very solid prices: Super Saver 18 dollars, Summer Bird in Belmont around 12-1 and Drosselmeyer in the Belmont around 12 -1 etch

In fact, wagering only on the above types gets a high ROI in all three legs of the Triple Crown. (as found in my book-Analyzing the Triple Crown).

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I know there are a lot of different trends & angles that involve this race every year......if you have any to add, please do..

I looked at these one by one and here's my take

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Last 10 years, the derby horse has been won by a Kentucky bred horse........

Do they win at a greater rate than in other graded/similar races, or do KY breds, which greatly outnumber other statebreds anyway, just win lots of races nationwide?

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

20 of past 21 derby winners have raced 2 to 4 times from Jan 1st up to the derby........

I'd say most if not essentially all active 3YO race 2-4 times before May.

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

9 of last 10 derby winners have won a graded stakes race at least once........

Given the kinds of horses aimed for the Derby, this seems self evident.

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

13 out of last 14 derby winners have raced 4 to 8 times in their career entering the derby......

I'd say this is true of most actively-racing 3yos.

[keithw84]

In a different thread, someone suggested that a horse could be too seasoned going into the Derby - too many starts, started career too early at age 2, etc. Any credence to that idea?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by keithw84

In a different thread, someone suggested that a horse could be too seasoned going into the Derby - too many starts, started career too early at age 2, etc. Any credence to that idea?

What do you consider early? 6 of past 12 derby winners started their career in August or before.

[SecretAgentMan]

82% of derby horses past 10 years are Kentucky bred, so yes, its a huge advantage........so the 10 year bred in Kentucky trend isn't that important.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

82% of derby horses past 10 years are Kentucky bred, so yes, its a huge advantage........so the 10 year bred in Kentucky trend isn't that important.

I agree. Best Pal ran excellent in 1991. The right horse can do it.

[horses4courses]

We've had NY breds, PA breds, CA breds......just give me the right horse.
He could have been bred on Mars , for all I care.

Real Quiet won the Derby, and nearly the TC, with a gazillion starts before May.
Again, just give me the right horse on Derby Day.

Horses don't fit in pigeon holes.

[SecretAgentMan]

I like Cali Chrome right now & he's bred in Cali.......I just think he's mountains better of any other horse heading into the derby. Now we just gotta wait for post positions.

I would like to see him work over churchill tho......

[horses4courses]

For all you trend and angle players, here's a real doozy.
Enjoy......

http://www.xpressbet.com/ReadPostTime?id=8698

[Leparoux]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

We've had NY breds, PA breds, CA breds......just give me the right horse.
He could have been bred on Mars , for all I care.

Real Quiet won the Derby, and nearly the TC, with a gazillion starts before May.
Again, just give me the right horse on Derby Day.

Horses don't fit in pigeon holes.

Love this.