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04-12-2014, 07:52 PM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 735
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Wicked Strong Vs Danza
Who do you think is the better derby horse?
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04-12-2014, 11:35 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 2,194
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Danza runs the first six furlongs as the rabbit drops out while a resting Wicked Strong joins the field on the backstretch for a four furlong sprint to the wire and KD win.
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04-13-2014, 06:32 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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On TimeformUS numbers, Wicked Strong was faster. But, might as well use both of them.
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04-13-2014, 08:32 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 467
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One of them is a very likely Derby winner, the other barley belongs.
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04-13-2014, 09:25 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 142
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danza
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04-13-2014, 10:21 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Danza running almost as fast as Will Take Charge was pretty impressive. Granted, he had a good trip, but Wicked Strong's trip was pace aided. IMO, Danza is more impressive.
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04-14-2014, 12:19 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Danza got a beyer of 102 & Dance Fate received a 97......as for Danza vs Wicked, I like Danza better. I don't like horses that don't like running on certain tracks.
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04-14-2014, 04:36 PM
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#8
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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They are both tough to read.
Danza really got a dream trip in the Arkansas Derby. He also benefited from Bayern not exactly firing to expectations. To Danza's credit he did at least finish very well.
Wicked Strong also got a nice setup in the Wood. Social Inclusion did a lot of work and then Wicked Strong kind of idled into the stretch on the wrong lead and then changed righty, and had way more horse than anyone else. The Remsen was probably less impressive than it seemed at the time as well.
Wicked Strong could have some New York money and be backed much heavier, but he's also more likely to hit the board, as far as what information we can see.
 tough call
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-14-2014, 06:34 PM
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#9
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Scum Bum!
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,889
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
They are both tough to read.
Danza really got a dream trip in the Arkansas Derby. He also benefited from Bayern not exactly firing to expectations. To Danza's credit he did at least finish very well.
Wicked Strong also got a nice setup in the Wood. Social Inclusion did a lot of work and then Wicked Strong kind of idled into the stretch on the wrong lead and then changed righty, and had way more horse than anyone else. The Remsen was probably less impressive than it seemed at the time as well.
tough call |
It is a tough call! However, I voted for Wicked Strong. WS didn't have an easy trip, imo. He was wide on the turn, and when he switched leads mid stretch, found that extra kick and had a solid finish. In the Wood thread, I referred to this as a Derby winning move. Samraat, Uncle Sigh(trouble), and SI were his top opponents and nothing to sneeze at. With Danza, I was out at Keeneland all day, so admittedly, I was seeing double when I watched the AD, so, his performance is a bit fuzzy. Bayern who I haven't been high on regardless, didn't fire and I guess that helped the outcome. Obviously, I will rewatch it but if he ran fractions close to those of WTC, that's impressive in my book. I think we have to include them both in the exotics.
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04-14-2014, 09:58 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 142
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My problem with WS is he always seems a touch slow on the start which spells trouble for the Derby. I will be using him in the exotics but have a hard time seeing him win.
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04-15-2014, 07:27 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Wicked Strong has one thing going for him that Danza, Constitution and We Miss Artie don't; he's not trained by Pletcher. As great as Todd has been in Derby preps, he's terrible on the first day of May at CD.
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04-15-2014, 08:37 AM
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#12
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 735
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what are timeform numbers?
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04-15-2014, 09:55 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 8,429
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that's an easy one, Danza.
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04-15-2014, 12:30 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Considering Pletcher has been a 22-25% winning trainer for over 15 years, should a horse of his EVER, under any circumstances, be 40-1? Could be one of these situations similar to bridgejumpers; when a 20% plus trainer is that big a price, an automatic wager, even if small, is in order.
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04-20-2014, 03:36 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Valuist
Considering Pletcher has been a 22-25% winning trainer for over 15 years, should a horse of his EVER, under any circumstances, be 40-1? Could be one of these situations similar to bridgejumpers; when a 20% plus trainer is that big a price, an automatic wager, even if small, is in order.
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In the Ark derby, when I saw Pletcher have 2 entries, I asked my cousin, do you think Pletcher might pull the switcharoo, where everyone expects his better horse to win but the long shot comes in?
That's as far as the conversation went & after the race, we just looked at each other like, we should have had st least $10 to win on that 40-1 shot........
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