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05-02-2018, 07:27 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Testing a new angle for the Derby - the picks derived from the angle
Using the Brisnet pp's, I downloaded the early pp's after the prep races were over three weeks before the Derby.
Then I downloaded the final version with the M/L odds and the post positions.
Comparing each of the 20 entered horses across the two sets of Brisnet pp's, I looked for any positive ( increased number value) in the last two races of each horse in two ratings: the RR and CR.
Here are the 4 horses I found:
1) Mendelssohn (the top ranked with an increase in an RR and a CR)
2) Magnum Moon
3) Solomini
4) Combatant
I will bet a 50-cent trifecta box and a $1 exacta box for a total of $36 bet.
Only for the K. Derby do I loosen rules of money management.
It's the one time you want to have fun in a sport that requires that you usually be cold blooded.
Good luck!
Bill C
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05-02-2018, 07:34 PM
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#2
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
Using the Brisnet pp's, I downloaded the early pp's after the prep races were over three weeks before the Derby.
Then I downloaded the final version with the M/L odds and the post positions.
Comparing each of the 20 entered horses across the two sets of Brisnet pp's, I looked for any positive ( increased number value) in the last two races of each horse in two ratings: the RR and CR.
Here are the 4 horses I found:
1) Mendelssohn (the top ranked with an increase in an RR and a CR)
2) Magnum Moon
3) Solomini
4) Combatant
I will bet a 50-cent trifecta box and a $1 exacta box for a total of $36 bet.
Only for the K. Derby do I loosen rules of money management.
It's the one time you want to have fun in a sport that requires that you usually be cold blooded.
Good luck!
Bill C
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If your angle has Mendelssohn #1 and Magnum Moon #2 than I think your on to something !!
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05-02-2018, 10:19 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Magnum Moon is only second in the sense that he beat the other two horses in the same race. Since the RR of all three horses (Magnum Moon, Solomoni and Combatant) increased by 1 for all three in one of their last two races, they are technically all tied.
I do note that for the last last race, having the shortest turn around time AND the highest RR for any horses in the last race, Magnum Moon, Solomoni and Combatant are unique for the current 20 Derby entries.
Sometimes divergent points of view regarding handicapping converge on one horse more often than others. I'm seeing that with Solomoni in more than than I can describe in this short space
Best,
Bill C
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05-02-2018, 11:01 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Owatonna, MN
Posts: 793
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BRIS Race Ratings
BCJuvy 118
ArkDerby 117
Rebel 117
SanFelipe 117
SA Derby 116
BlueGrass 116
Wood 116
FlaDerby 116
FtnYouth 116
Gotham 116
TampDerby 116
HolyBull 116
Risen Star 116
SamDavis 116
Southwest 116
LaDerby 115
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05-02-2018, 11:03 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Owatonna, MN
Posts: 793
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Bris RR and CR Ratings:
a) RR is the Bris Race Rating and measures the overall quality of horses which competed in a race: the higher the number, the tougher the competition.
b) CR is the Bris Class Rating measures a horse’s actual performance against this competition in a race: the higher the number, the better the horse performed.
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05-02-2018, 11:04 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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I'm not sure what you intended me to take away from your list of RR ratings for those Derby prep races.
Best,
Bill C
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05-02-2018, 11:10 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Owatonna, MN
Posts: 793
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
I'm not sure what you intended me to take away from your list of RR ratings for those Derby prep races.
Best,
Bill C
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I just thought I'd post em, since I wrote them all down when I was looking at the BRIS PPs yesterday. This seemed like the thread to do it in. Just a way to show what BRIS thought of the strength of each prep field.
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05-02-2018, 11:14 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Good idea and useful to have all the major prep races' RR ratings in one place that you can take in at a single glance.
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05-02-2018, 11:33 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: East Texas
Posts: 1,340
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What is the RR and the CR for Mendelssohn in the Dubai race?
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05-02-2018, 11:38 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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As far as I know, from the final Brisnet pp's for the Derby, there are none shown for that UAE race.
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05-02-2018, 11:52 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulerider
What is the RR and the CR for Mendelssohn in the Dubai race?
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I think i see what you might have in mind: my original post in the thread said I was looking at the last two races for each entrant in the Derby showing any increase in their last two races. In the early version of the Derby pp's the March 9th race for Mendelssohn (2nd race back) showed an RR rating of 116 for that race and a CR rating for the horse itself of 119 in that race. In the final Brisnet Derby pp's, those ratings jumped to 117 and 120 respectively.
Best,
Bill C
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05-03-2018, 01:13 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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How has this new angle done the past 20 years? Did you go back & get results?
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05-03-2018, 01:22 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: East Texas
Posts: 1,340
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
I think i see what you might have in mind: my original post in the thread said I was looking at the last two races for each entrant in the Derby showing any increase in their last two races. In the early version of the Derby pp's the March 9th race for Mendelssohn (2nd race back) showed an RR rating of 116 for that race and a CR rating for the horse itself of 119 in that race. In the final Brisnet Derby pp's, those ratings jumped to 117 and 120 respectively.
Best,
Bill C
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Yes. Thanks.
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05-03-2018, 01:22 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
How has this new angle done the past 20 years? Did you go back & get results?
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No, this is a brand new angle for me. I wanted to try something different for this year's Derby.
By the way, there are a few horses that have been prominently mentioned that regressed in either of their last two RR's And/Or CR's.
They are Hofburg, Good Magic and Audible.
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05-03-2018, 01:25 PM
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#15
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,310
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
No, this is a brand new angle for me. I wanted to try something different for this year's Derby.
By the way, there are a few horses that have been prominently mentioned that regressed in either of their last two RR's And/Or CR's.
They are Hofburg, Good Magic and Audible.
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Regressed? How so? Class-wise?
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