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03-23-2018, 10:00 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
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Sunland Derby
Sunland Park, Race 11, 5:15 PM MT, Sunday, March 25, 2018
$800,000.00
Grade III Stakes
1 1/8 miles
Main Track
3 year-olds
Total Number of Picks On This Race: 652
Program # Picks Horse PH Odds
1. 68 All Out Blitz 7 - 1
2. 19 Dark Vader 28 - 1
3. 71 New York Central 6 - 1
4. 104 Hollywood Star 4 - 1
5. 100 Peace 9 - 2
6. 13 Shane Zain 41 - 1
7. 109 Prince Lucky 4 - 1
8. 40 Seven Trumpets 12 - 1
9. 65 Choo Choo 7 - 1
10. 22 Dream Baby Dream 24 - 1
11. 36 Runaway Ghost 14 - 1
12. 5 Fortified Effort 109 - 1
Publichandicappers like Hollywood star. I don't have the pp's, but will go w/the Oaklawn horse New York Central. Hit a good pick 4 on him earlier in the year
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03-24-2018, 05:40 PM
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#2
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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No obvious 'derby trail' horses, but it could be a good betting race.
There's several in here that are interesting at first glance.
had a rough post and trip in the Lecomte stakes. Moves Jones-->Pletcher.
Worked with 'Audible' a horse who has had success with Pletcher, and he outmoved Audible so badly that he had to wait on Audible on the turn. No way that he'll be the ml of 6/1 at post time. Great workouts have a way of being overbet, and fans will gravitate to Pletcher without a standout. However he does look a major player.
is a good value include on paper. Last couple races didn't seem to favor closers and he ran OK.
's pace figures are strong enough to warrant at least some replay watching. Not sure if he's up to this class of racing, but he's the local.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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03-24-2018, 07:45 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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looks like another decent betting race.
i haven't broken it down much after a cursory glance.
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03-24-2018, 07:57 PM
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#4
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
looks like another decent betting race.
i haven't broken it down much after a cursory glance.
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I agree and leaning toward Dark Vader 15-1. I know Eurton is high on him.
__________________
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03-24-2018, 08:27 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699
I agree and leaning toward Dark Vader 15-1. I know Eurton is high on him.
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first glance i like the inside.
1245
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03-24-2018, 08:39 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
had a rough post and trip in the Lecomte stakes. Moves Jones-->Pletcher.
Worked with 'Audible' a horse who has had success with Pletcher, and he outmoved Audible so badly that he had to wait on Audible on the turn. No way that he'll be the ml of 6/1 at post time. Great workouts have a way of being overbet, and fans will gravitate to Pletcher without a standout. However he does look a major player.
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i don't put much stock in workouts and warm ups. but if there is buzz about him you have to consider. tell me more. especially since you seems to think he;ll be short priced
could be a player as the lecomp is a throw out and pletch takes over
however,...imo the horse doesn;t look that strong on paper..but he has the right to improve.
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03-24-2018, 08:57 PM
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#7
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
i don't put much stock in workouts and warm ups. but if there is buzz about him you have to consider. tell me more. especially since you seems to think he;ll be short priced
could be a player as the lecomp is a throw out and pletch takes over
however,...imo the horse doesn;t look that strong on paper..but he has the right to improve.
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workout
https://www.xbtv.com/video/todd-plet...rch-17th-2018/
about 1minute on the video Prince Lucky starts to pull away. About 1:15 he has to wait on Audible.
While I was impressed, I've already been burned once this year with an impressive workout. Sometimes the other horse had a poor work. Sometimes the horse you like just happened to move prematurely(didn't seem to be the case here because of the rider on Audible visibly beginning to 'drive').
Gut says there is a decent chance that there will be 'buzz'
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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03-25-2018, 12:28 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
workout
https://www.xbtv.com/video/todd-plet...rch-17th-2018/
about 1minute on the video Prince Lucky starts to pull away. About 1:15 he has to wait on Audible.
While I was impressed, I've already been burned once this year with an impressive workout. Sometimes the other horse had a poor work. Sometimes the horse you like just happened to move prematurely(didn't seem to be the case here because of the rider on Audible visibly beginning to 'drive').
Gut says there is a decent chance that there will be 'buzz'
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i don't know what to make if this..good for lucky? bad for audible? negligible for both?
the next video after this one was audible a week later. he was whipped vs this unknown horse just yesterday. do you know who this horse was?
i do know that both lucky and the horse below were prompting audible, but audible couldnot keep up for the most part
https://www.xbtv.com/video/todd-plet...rch-17th-2018/
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03-25-2018, 12:55 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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half the field looks a little slow, or not the horse for the course, or might be lower stock.
#3 is eligible to get better, as with most but i think he's too cheap and not fast enough. i know some will like him, but he's one of my last throw outs. and if i dont like him i really can't lke #6 and #8 who was a little intriguing, but the last race was really poor.
roman's main player is the #4 here..if the 8 runs big i'll lose. the #10 was also beaten by ny central,,,,all of them seem a notch below imo
#9 has some gate speed and did run 144.2 on that GG surface in the 100k cal derby. there;s some questions about the dirt though, but he did beat dark vader on the turf which may mean nothing.
#11 looks pretty fast but don't they always run a little faster at sunland? i think you have to respect this horse and use him.
#12 the eleven beat him by 7L that's all you need to know
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03-25-2018, 01:15 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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the #1 and #4 seem like major players. natural progression, and or class or the right place at the right time.
i think the #2 and #5 are right beneath them and with a little luck either could be 1st or 2nd as well at a price
dont know what to do with the #7 first instinct is don't use..but if you cross out the lecomp and you have a horse with possibilities and one waiting to show he's classy enough and could beat better. barn change has to help, but he still has a lot to prove.
#11 dont like the post but he could bottom the field if he can get an easy lead. he looks fast enough. the horse that beat him when he was 2-5 (reride) is going to the UAE i believe
Last edited by boys at tosconova; 03-25-2018 at 01:18 AM.
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03-25-2018, 09:39 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Looking at the field, I think its safe to say no one will consider this a "key race" like last year...
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03-25-2018, 10:33 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 229
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Wow this is a tough race I'm going with the peace and the dream baby thinking there will be some pace to run into.
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03-25-2018, 11:07 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,631
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03-25-2018, 11:38 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 1,114
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When did Sunland get rid of their live streams/replays on the site? Dont think I'll even be able to watch this race.
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03-25-2018, 11:41 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet
Sunland Park, Race 11, 5:15 PM MT, Sunday, March 25, 2018
$800,000.00
Grade III Stakes
1 1/8 miles
Main Track
3 year-olds
Total Number of Picks On This Race: 652
Program # Picks Horse PH Odds
1. 68 All Out Blitz 7 - 1
2. 19 Dark Vader 28 - 1
3. 71 New York Central 6 - 1
4. 104 Hollywood Star 4 - 1
5. 100 Peace 9 - 2
6. 13 Shane Zain 41 - 1
7. 109 Prince Lucky 4 - 1
8. 40 Seven Trumpets 12 - 1
9. 65 Choo Choo 7 - 1
10. 22 Dream Baby Dream 24 - 1
11. 36 Runaway Ghost 14 - 1
12. 5 Fortified Effort 109 - 1
Publichandicappers like Hollywood star. I don't have the pp's, but will go w/the Oaklawn horse New York Central. Hit a good pick 4 on him earlier in the year
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I like the to improve, taking a shot with over
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