Structuring Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers

[Qstick333]

Hello folks -

I have been playing exactas and trifectas for quite some time with reasonable success but have decided to make an attempt to play pick 3 and pick 4's. No pick 6's yet.

I'm hoping you guys can share either some preferred structures or resources that might point me in the proper direction. Tonight I played an won a Pick 3 that cost me $24 and returned $53. There must have been a better way. I also hit a double that paid 5.60, but that is a different story.

I appreciate any help you might be able to provide,

Zach

[MickJ26]

Since most tracks offer rolling pick 3's, you can pretty much pick out what you think is the most winable sequence. With the pick 4, the track makes the decision for you. Handicap the whole card and identify the most vulnerable favourites. If you can beat the chalk in at least two of the races, then you have a nice paying ticket. Always play the miminum base bet and if you like your ticket, play it multiple times to avoid the taxman. That's my strategy, good luck.

[Uncle Salty]

Steven Crist's book Exotic Betting lays out a pretty easy strategy for getting decent coverage on the Pick 3/4 while avoiding ballooning ticket costs.

[CBedo]

Sometimes when I'm betting small increments, I use a technique in the Pick 3 that I think I read in Mitchell's Commonsense Betting.

If you have 3 (or 4) horses per leg, instead of betting 3 x 3 x 3 for a $27 dollar wager, I'll choose a key horse in each leg (and try not to use more than one favorite as the key, two at the most), then bet three tickets, 1 x 3 x 3, 3 x 1 x 3, & 3 x 3 x 1. It's the same $27 cost, but I have the chance to hit it multiple times if more than one of my key horses wins. The downside I guess is that if one of your keys don't win, you can't hit the ticket, but I can live with missing it if I haven't done a great job of handicapping at least one of the races in the sequence.

I have also done something somewhat similar in the pick 4, but it is situational. To me, betting doubles and pick 3s I am willing to miss it to get value for my ticket. With a Pick 5 or 6, usually, I am trying to stay alive (I know you need value in all tickets, but you know what I mean). The pick 4 is my inflection point, and how I bet it depends on the sequence.

[Uncle Salty]

Originally Posted by CBedo

If you have 3 (or 4) horses per leg, instead of betting 3 x 3 x 3 for a $27 dollar wager, I'll choose a key horse in each leg (and try not to use more than one favorite as the key, two at the most), then bet three tickets, 1 x 3 x 3, 3 x 1 x 3, & 3 x 3 x 1. It's the same $27 cost, but I have the chance to hit it multiple times if more than one of my key horses wins. The downside I guess is that if one of your keys don't win, you can't hit the ticket, but I can live with missing it if I haven't done a great job of handicapping at least one of the races in the sequence.

I am going to have to try that one out. I use the method from Crist's book of 3x1x1, 1x3x1, and 1x1x3 every so often. The ticket cost is only $9, so it's a nice cheap bet for when you just want to have some action or you don't think you'll get a price on your key horses. But I always get burnt by not having enough coverage on it...I'll get a key horse home, but then one of the non-key secondaries will hit on the 2nd or 3rd leg and I'm out.

I am interested in the pick4 but I want to win one on paper before I start dishing out real money on that, as real coverage can get a bit expensive, even at a $.50 level.

[cnollfan]

Unless I love all three horses in the sequence, I won't bet any pick 3's that don't include a horse 6-1 or higher in at least one leg.

Pick 4's are the inflection point at which I am happy just to stay alive. I like using an A and B approach in the pick 4, betting all the combinations of 4 As, 3 As and one B, or 2 As and 2 Bs. It takes a few minutes to map out the bets but not that long now that I am used to the pattern. If I am off to a decent start in the sequence, I may use pick 3s or doubles to hedge with on subsequent legs.

I also don't like to use more than half the horses in a race. If I can't narrow it down to half of less, I will either use "all" (unless there is an absolutely hopeless horse ala Rick's Natural Star in the BC) or just pick one horse out to single. Using several horses while excluding several other horses you also think have a shot is a bad idea. You spend a lot of money but aren't really protected.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by CBedo

Sometimes when I'm betting small increments, I use a technique in the Pick 3 that I think I read in Mitchell's Commonsense Betting.

If you have 3 (or 4) horses per leg, instead of betting 3 x 3 x 3 for a $27 dollar wager, I'll choose a key horse in each leg (and try not to use more than one favorite as the key, two at the most), then bet three tickets, 1 x 3 x 3, 3 x 1 x 3, & 3 x 3 x 1. It's the same $27 cost, but I have the chance to hit it multiple times if more than one of my key horses wins. The downside I guess is that if one of your keys don't win, you can't hit the ticket, but I can live with missing it if I haven't done a great job of handicapping at least one of the races in the sequence.

.

Yes. But ouch does that hurt when the 3x3x3 would have put you up $500 and you're left holding $27 in losing tickets.
Consider both. One ticket 3x3x3 and one ticket with the other method.
You might get it up to 4 times.

[ten2oneormore]

I play rolling Pick 3's a lot.Most of the time I look for a sequence where I can start with a single and spread in the 2nd and 3rd legs.My single is never the favorite though and usually a mid to long shot.My thinking is that this almost assures me a decent payout given when the favorites lose in the 1st leg it knocks out a ton of tickets.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

I like betting 5-6 horses/5-6 horses/2 horses..I only bet it if i really think 2 stand out in the 3rd leg.. 50-60 dollar bet..Then if the payouts are good going into the 3rd leg, you can always put your 2 in 2nd for the tri If you can narrow the 3rd leg down to one..will drop you to 25-30 dollar bet. The wheel that horse 2nd in the tri..

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Yes. But ouch does that hurt when the 3x3x3 would have put you up $500 and you're left holding $27 in losing tickets.
Consider both. One ticket 3x3x3 and one ticket with the other method.
You might get it up to 4 times.

I agree with that, and have done that occasionally, but if you don't mind putting more money into the bet in the first place, then I'd customize the ticket a bit more with the least likely combinations bet for the minimum and the more likely combinations getting more. It doesn't make sense to me to spread too much just to try to hit it, and yes there are times when I had all three winners of HUGE pick 3s on my ticket and didn't hit it, but the probabilities are with me and I can live with that (although I'll whine about it when it happens, lol).

[arno]

When I am playing tracks with rolling pick threes I look to see what races have either a poor favorite and/or not an odds on favorite.

That race begins my pick 3 sequence.
I am always looking for the price in the first leg.

You would be surprised how the first race price influences the pick 3 price.

A sequence of 20/1, 5/1, and 2/1 will pay more than the sequence 2/1, 5/1, and 20/1.

So I am always top heavy in the first leg.

You will see me play 6 horses in first leg, 3 horses in 2nd leg, and 2 horses in 3rd leg much more often than 3 horses in first leg, 3 in 2nd leg and four in third leg even though they both cost $36 for a dollar.

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by arno

That race begins my pick 3 sequence.
I am always looking for the price in the first leg.

I have more of a "crush it" mentality when I find one of these. If I find bad favorite combined with a price horse or two I really like, I'll play ALL the pick 3s & doubles around it to try to make a score.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

Originally Posted by arno

When I am playing tracks with rolling pick threes I look to see what races have either a poor favorite and/or not an odds on favorite.

That race begins my pick 3 sequence.
I am always looking for the price in the first leg.

You would be surprised how the first race price influences the pick 3 price.

A sequence of 20/1, 5/1, and 2/1 will pay more than the sequence 2/1, 5/1, and 20/1.

So I am always top heavy in the first leg.

You will see me play 6 horses in first leg, 3 horses in 2nd leg, and 2 horses in 3rd leg much more often than 3 horses in first leg, 3 in 2nd leg and four in third leg even though they both cost $36 for a dollar.

I have to say thats part of the reason I like to throw 5 or 6 in the first leg, because if you can get a bomb in the first, you almost always get nice payouts..favorite wins the first leg, even with a price in the middle or on the end, you usually will be dissapointed..

[erikeepper]

Is it possible in USA to see what the P3/P4 is going to return IN ADVANCE?

[Uncle Salty]

Only before the last leg is run.