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08-09-2011, 11:54 AM
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#1
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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MAKING $30,000 A MONTH PLAYING EXACTAS
Imagine if you could just break even playing exactas.
One of the things needed would be to find at least an average of 9 daily tracks that could absorb a $13 exacta bet without drastically changing the payout.
Using a study I'm demonstrating in the "Selections Forum"
it's possible to bet an average of 16 exacta combiations in just about EVERY race and POSSIBLY break even or better.
$13 bet x 16 plays x 9 races per card x 9 cards per day x 30 days = $505440.
At that level of play, the NYRA ADW gives a 6% rebate... abt $30,000
Possible? 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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08-09-2011, 12:10 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,481
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by formula_2002
Imagine if you could just break even playing exactas.
One of the things needed would be to find at least an average of 9 daily tracks that could absorb a $13 exacta bet without drastically changing the payout.
Using a study I'm demonstrating in the "Selections Forum"
it's possible to bet an average of 16 exacta combiations in just about EVERY race and POSSIBLY break even or better.
$13 bet x 16 plays x 9 races per card x 9 cards per day x 30 days = $505440.
At that level of play, the NYRA ADW gives a 6% rebate... abt $30,000
Possible? |
Why play so many exactas? You can increase the bet per exacta to $50+ and have a better roi than spreading around.
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08-09-2011, 04:59 PM
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#3
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Spiderman
Why play so many exactas? You can increase the bet per exacta to $50+ and have a better roi than spreading around.
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If I break even at $13 a pop, I'm still even at $50.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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08-09-2011, 07:29 PM
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#4
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Grinding at a Poker Table
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,902
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I would venture to say "not possible". If someone proves this wrong, great for them and it would truly be an AMAZING feat.
My opinion is based on the general info you presented. The average exacta payout at all tracks over the past 12 months is around $80. With 16 exacta combinations, you need to get back an average $2 exacta payout of $32 per race played to break even. To do so one's hit rate would need to be 32/80 or 40%.
No one is going to come remotely close to an $80 average $2 exacta payout with a 40% hit rate, using only 16 exacta combinations per race, playing just about every race on the card, and do so month after month for an entire year.
We all like to dream, but the reality of racing does not support this dream.
Can a person hope to make a profit playing exactas by using a sound methodology and being selective in the races they play? That is an entirely different dream. 
Disclaimer: Although I have yet to achieve success over the past several years  , my "dream" for the above goal is still alive.
Last edited by Track Collector; 08-09-2011 at 07:31 PM.
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08-09-2011, 08:29 PM
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#5
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Track Collector
I would venture to say "not possible". If someone proves this wrong, great for them and it would truly be an AMAZING feat.
My opinion is based on the general info you presented. The average exacta payout at all tracks over the past 12 months is around $80. With 16 exacta combinations, you need to get back an average $2 exacta payout of $32 per race played to break even. To do so one's hit rate would need to be 32/80 or 40%.
No one is going to come remotely close to an $80 average $2 exacta payout with a 40% hit rate, using only 16 exacta combinations per race, playing just about every race on the card, and do so month after month for an entire year.
We all like to dream, but the reality of racing does not support this dream.
Can a person hope to make a profit playing exactas by using a sound methodology and being selective in the races they play? That is an entirely different dream.
Disclaimer: Although I have yet to achieve success over the past several years , my "dream" for the above goal is still alive. |
THE ODDS ARE THAT YOU ARE PROBABLY RIGHT.
I'll try to prove you right, and hope I'm wrong
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...39#post1141439
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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08-10-2011, 12:30 AM
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#6
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AllAboutTheROE
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 2,411
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Track Collector
I would venture to say "not possible". If someone proves this wrong, great for them and it would truly be an AMAZING feat.
My opinion is based on the general info you presented. The average exacta payout at all tracks over the past 12 months is around $80. With 16 exacta combinations, you need to get back an average $2 exacta payout of $32 per race played to break even. To do so one's hit rate would need to be 32/80 or 40%.
No one is going to come remotely close to an $80 average $2 exacta payout with a 40% hit rate, using only 16 exacta combinations per race, playing just about every race on the card, and do so month after month for an entire year.
We all like to dream, but the reality of racing does not support this dream.
Can a person hope to make a profit playing exactas by using a sound methodology and being selective in the races they play? That is an entirely different dream.
Disclaimer: Although I have yet to achieve success over the past several years , my "dream" for the above goal is still alive. |
I tend to agree with most of this, but a hit rate of 40% might not be that difficult to get (at what price is the question as usual). If you think about it, in a 7 horse field, there are only 42 exacta combinations, so if Formula is playing 16 combinations, randomly he should have a hit rate of over 38%.
__________________
"No problem can withstand the assault of sustained thinking" -- Voltaire
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08-10-2011, 02:36 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,655
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I have been following your selections and am curious how you decide on number of entries to box?
I would have a hard time boxing 4 horses in a 6 horse field or 7 horses in an 11 horse field.
$13 bet would depend on size of pool and number od winning tickets
your big win today 3rd mountaineer paid 267.80 from pool of 31,973
19% exacta takeout->25,898 returned ->96.5 $2 tickets
if you added another 6.5 tickets pay-off closer to -> 251.40
much bigger impact in smaller pool
less (percentagewise) on shorter priced winner
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08-10-2011, 07:30 AM
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#8
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
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your big win today 3rd mountaineer paid 267.80 from pool of 31,973
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if you were able to break even in the win pool, the min payoff for that exacta would be $297.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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08-10-2011, 11:25 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by formula_2002
If I break even at $13 a pop, I'm still even at $50.
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I think what he is saying is if you are more selective, you will probably increase your ROI. Systematic wagers are almost always doomed to fail. There may be a few exceptions (boxing 1-2-3 in the exacta at the old Sportsmans) but eventually the public catches on.
I have to agree w/Spiderman; less number of wagers, but larger amounts.
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