Why a high win percent may not be a good thing.

[windoor]

Why a high win percent may not be a good thing.

Say what???

Do you really think you are doing something that no else does?
I got a pretty big head, unorthodox methods, so yea, I though so. Now I’m not so sure.

As I get more data to work with, I am noticing a trend.

Some months my spot plays do quite well when the average odd and win percent are in line with what I expected. There are times when the win percent takes a spike upward.

Whenever this happens, I see a steady decline in average odd. A couple of them go as far as to be non-profitable. Then the inevitable happens, and I get a long losing streak. After the losing streak is over, the average odd takes a spike upward and the plays become profitable again. This could be just random noise or a time that my plays happen to fall into a highly ranked speed or pace number.

Or it could be there are others that see what I see, but cannot survive the losing streak or lose heart and move on to something else when things turn sour.

I can’t help but wonder, if could predict when the losing streak is almost over or just jump in when the average odd goes back up, I might be able to time it for maximum gain. Then when the odds start to drop again, jump out to complete a cycle.

Does anyone else do this or see value in it? Or maybe I shouldn't do analysis when I am on my meds

Regards,

Windoor.

[Overlay]

I think spot plays by nature/definition are prone to the type of cycles you describe because they are too narrowly focused. Chances of success always need to be considered in light of projected rate of return. To me, the expansion of consideration to the full field, acceptable wagering value, and multiple fundamental handicapping factors (as opposed to a single overriding variable or angle) addresses the concerns you noted.

[Robert Fischer]

i'll tell you what i think about it Windoor

when it comes to MY game? = I want the HIGHEST WIN% i can grind out. To me that comes to playing as efficiently, as accurately as possible... It even comes to at rare times trading off a SMALL amount of ROI for that HIT RATE.

but i DO NOT look for the HIGHEST WIN% plays OUTSIDE MY GAME. And my game is not in the High Bracket. Every knucklehead with 2 bucks is betting that play, but worse, the big boys are betting that play. If it's me vs a 10% rebate with a organization that can afford to lose 10% more on top of that for laundering the currency, I'm not going to meet my goals in that bracket over any period of time.

You know I only get one shot in this game, and it comes from exploiting the nature of the PARIMUTUEL SYSTEM. and i have to just fight my way to as HIGH% inside that bracket.

[mannyberrios]

That is so true Mr. Fischer!

[Robert Fischer]

thanks Manny that's just how i see it

[Edward DeVere]

Originally Posted by Overlay

the expansion of consideration to the full field

The full field? The only horse I look at is my Stable Mail horse.

PPs are so yesterday.

[Dave Schwartz]

The full field? The only horse I look at is my Stable Mail horse.

PPs are so yesterday.

Well, Ed. How is that working for you?

[SchagFactorToWin]

Originally Posted by windoor

I can’t help but wonder, if could predict when the losing streak is almost over or just jump in when the average odd goes back up, I might be able to time it for maximum gain. Then when the odds start to drop again, jump out to complete a cycle.

This can't be done. One's win rate and payouts are mathematically random. The results of each individual race are not random, of course.

This is not to say that there are those who could not predict the streaks, just that the reason for them doing so is just random (luck). If I predict the flip of a coin correctly for ten flips, have I figured out a system for predicting coin flips? Of course not.

For the past 2 months, my EX payouts have been lower than average. The win rate, which was average, was not high enough to compensate. Afraid that it might be permanent, I decided to analyze the monthly variance. About half the month's had below average win rates and half above. The same for the payouts. So there is a 25% chance of having 2 months of lower payouts in a row. My conclusion is that I just need to ride it out.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by windoor

Some months my spot plays do quite well when the average odd and win percent are in line with what I expected. There are times when the win percent takes a spike upward.

Whenever this happens, I see a steady decline in average odd. .

What happens when you view anything under 4-1 as a push and sit out over time? If your ROI goes up then you've found what I call a gem. They're out there for the spot player. I've got a dozen of these personal cash registers. I've learned over time that these low odds streaks occur and it's a good time to do something else, and I'll make it easy on myself by hitting the conditional button at 4-1. I don't have what you call long losing streaks (my longest losing streak this year ran 6 races.) I have periods of none play, which could last a couple week or more at an individual track, due to low odds (which usually have a higher win percent.) But why risk you emotional health playing these? Take the big shots. This is the route to wealth.

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by pondman

I don't have what you call long losing streaks (my longest losing streak this year ran 6 races.)

6 races, wow! I sometimes have longer losing streaks than that multiple times in a day!

[windoor]

Originally Posted by pondman

What happens when you view anything under 4-1 as a push and sit out over time? If your ROI goes up then you've found what I call a gem. They're out there for the spot player. I've got a dozen of these personal cash registers. I've learned over time that these low odds streaks occur and it's a good time to do something else, and I'll make it easy on myself by hitting the conditional button at 4-1. I don't have what you call long losing streaks (my longest losing streak this year ran 6 races.) I have periods of none play, which could last a couple week or more at an individual track, due to low odds (which usually have a higher win percent.) But why risk you emotional health playing these? Take the big shots. This is the route to wealth.

I have been using the "conditional" button for odds more and more on some plays, but others I just ride it out. As I get more data to examine, I might change that.

Losing streaks? My longest occurred Dec 2010. 38 in a row, (from a spot play that consistently shows a 27% win rate) a low odd horse to break it and a 40+ odd a few races later to wipe it out.

I still have many in the teens and a few in the low twenty's from time to time for some of the plays.

I just get the sense that others see what I see and jump on the wagon for a time, driving down the odds until a good losing streak comes a long. They get off or go broke, I stick around and reap the benefits when things turn around. Maybe losing streaks are a good thing. Or maybe it's just my imagination.

Regards,

Windoor

[Robert Goren]

There is nothing random about long losing streaks. After a few loses in row on horses that you were sure were going to win, you start to change things. That only makes things worse. These streaks play with your head and the more you try to adjust the worse it gets. Sometimes you just have to take a week or so off.
The deceiving thing about systems is that they sometimes appear to work at all tracks and in all climates. That is never true. What works in New York in July might not do so well at Tampa in January.

[InControlX]

Winning and losing streaks are statistically certain on large samples, as has been discussed on other PA threads for years.

Here's a little spot play test trick a very good handicapper taught me which grades the strength of the spot play and it's susceptibility to chaos. Go back through your spot samples and move any wins by less than 1 length to the loss tally, i.e., evaluate by "secure" wins. If this drops the winning percentage by more than 15% the play is probably weak and chaos will have a major affect on it.

ICX

[NYPlayer]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

There is nothing random about long losing streaks. After a few loses in row on horses that you were sure were going to win, you start to change things...

It's nearly impossible to win every race, but usually when I start experimenting is when I start getting into trouble. I find it's easy to get fooled because when things are going well, i.e. I'm finding several prime plays, then having some losers in there isn't so bad, because you still manage to stay ahead, but then you get some bad days and all of a sudden it seriously impacts the bankroll. Long term success all comes down to playing selectively on the races where you know you have an edge.

[Robert Fischer]

RANDOM LONG LOSING STREAKS??

IT DEPENDS...

It's all relative

It's all relative


first you have to understand the reality of the thing
after that... semantics can twist around anything for the sake of argument, but that is just a fleeting entertainment...

step into my Bobby Fischer CLASSROOM
and lets do a couple EXAMPLES

we see a 2-1 shot that is BETTER than 2-1!
*(and in Bobby's Classroom the odds don't change late)
how much better than 2-1?? is our pick??
Hes so much better than 2-1 that he should be 1.7-1
his $2 ROI is $2.20
thats 10% interest on our long term investment
@ 2-1 his win% should be one outta three 1/3 or 33% of the time
but this OVERLAY is going to win 37% of the time !!! YES!
we'd be a ****ing fool if we did'nt INVEST in this play!!!
this play is the reason long-term players play.

the MAXIMUM Consecutive Losses that we should expect on a 37% winner like this is 20 losses in a row.

We should not lose more than 20 in a row if we are guaranteed to have accurately estimated the hit% here. That doesn't mean that at some point we may not lose 18 in a row(****) and then win one and then lose 5 in a row... that can happen too... It doesn't mean we HAVE to lose 20 in a row... but if we play long enough it's a mathamatical certainty that eventually we will have a losing streak in that ballpark... and it shouldn't really exceed 20 or so... (now that doesn't mean to get into a martingale scheme up around 19 losses!!! please don't do that!)

Now lets use the lesson we just reviewed in ROBERT FISCHERS CLASSROOM... matterfact lets get up and stretch and walk over to ROBERT FISCHERS LOUNGE AREA and talk LONG RANDOM LOSING STREAKS (by the way i'm selling some of this Virtual Real Estate...)
So is 20 losses a "Long Random LOSING STREAK"?? (LRLS from hence forward)
No! (Not unless we mean "long" in the sense of "long yet expected" or "random" in the sense of "random,... but hey - everything is random, random")
20 or 15, 18,12,17... are all completely normal Losing Streaks that are going to happen if we play enough horses.
A 37% winner is not a particularly low percentage. It is actually a HIGH percentage wager among win bets (for example a 5-1 shot, hardly a big longshot, wins 17% of the time or 20% less often!)

As Robert Goren and NYPlayer have so accurately pointed out in this thread - the booby-trap is the temptation to start changing your strategy when you lose several in a row...
SO it is worth noting that it is in fact very difficult AND VERY IMPORTANT to differentiate between regular dips in NORMAL PROBABILITY VS. U STINKING!!! LOL
no joke!

now let's look at my buddy Joe and his trifecta
first
LETS HAVE A VOTE- BACK TO THE CLASSROOM OR STAY IN THE LOUNGE AND HAVE COCKTAIL TO FINISH UP WORK??

OK. Stay in Robert Fischer's Lounge Area wins (virtual laziness? c'mon guys!) free open bar while I go over the:
FINAL EXAMPLE.

So, my buddy Joe = he's known as Joe or Joey Triactor (which is weird because he is from Jersey, not Canada...)

He only plays Trifectas.(Actually I've seen him make all kinds of wagers, but I'll admit, he has hit some nice tris)

WARNING: ANGLE AHEAD
He looks for for vulnerable favorites - and they just have to be vulnerable in the win slot(he often uses these favorites in another position in the tri, how? I have no idea...),
AND large pools, a strong opinion on another winner, a strong opinion on one mid-to-long odds runner
AND HE ALWAYS BETS STRAIGHT TRIS.

he sez to me "Jay"(Bobby Fischer is only my P.A. name), "Jay,... always bet straight, never box""Unless you REALLY give two horses the same chance, and the price is too high to refuse, always play it straight - never box"...

so I thought it'd be interesting to use his play for a final example here.
With my help he has broken down his percentages(i think in terms of the percentages to help me figure out later if the bet was any good - AND to adjust my percentages to reality if they aren't coming close) to me so I feel confident using them. He's a real character, and he can be a bullshitter, but I looked at the numbers and they seem ok to me.
So he's got the QUALIFICATIONS (listed somewhere above in this post) met, and he has the PROBABILITIES for a typical bigValue trifecta(we'll use the numbers 5-7-3) listed as follows (WARNING: ANGLE AHEAD):

1. #5(1st place) he gives the winner about a 20% chance to win
2. #7(2nd place) he gives the 7 a 15% chance to come exactly 2nd
3. #3(3rd)he gives the 3 a 15% chance to come exactly 3rd

so his 5-7-3 straight TRI which he has estimated conservatively as paying $3,000 has a .0045 chance to win(.20x.15x.15=.0045). This means 45 times out of every TEN THOUSAND plays. in PERCENTAGE FORM it is .45% not to be confused with 45%.
Now this is a GREAT play. Joey Triactor's $2 ROI on this play?? = $13.50
THIRTEEN... FIFTY...

thats a SIX HUNDRED SEVENTY FIVE PERCENT increase on the dollar!...

Just for fun I looked up Joey Triactor's maximum consecutive loss streak
2042
TWO THOUSAND FORTY TWO
2,042 MAXIMUM CONSECUTIVE LOSSES


soooo... .... like I said "It depends... it's all relative...." for Joey Triactor - a 500 race losing streak is NOT a long losing streak at all.




Hope you enjoyed the virtual Lesson and/or Example. Good Luck