Old Question Same answers?

[wiretowire68]

Just looking at a cheap claiming race and how certain softwares depending on how they calibrate or if you have the choice in terms of setting your preferences. As well as, the overall thought process which goes into the picking of a winner and of course getting your price whatever the horse wins at or you get stiffed on your pen and paper method etc.

I know as a Valuecapper owner... that MP always used lay offs as Anti-Value in terms of making your decisions in terms of the price you want. However, as the game continues to change, better medications, "more caring trainers" or not..lol. I guess I was wondering what people thought or do they think the way I do in terms of the older days of racing whereby you ran your horse a million times then gave him a break or are the trainers with success i.e. Chad Brown, Baffert, Pletcher etc. who can a) afford to let them mature, grow, be healthy etc. i.e. Chad actually went to Cornell to become a Vet.

My thinking is how do you play your layoffs, statistics, horse body language, do you lay off, depending on the amount of lay offs in the field, strong work tab, etc. etc.

[MJC922]

I look at spacing between races. A layoff means different things for different horses. For some horses every race is practically a layoff; in that case a top effort and coming back quickly is something I'd play to regress. Recency is just a lot different than the old days due to medications and withdrawal times etc sometimes the extra time is needed to not get an overage from something they've been using during the time off 'therapeutically' we'll be kind to the HBPA folks. The barn is going to usually want money down when they have everything the horse 'needs' or at least what they think it needs to be more confident in the bet. That kind of timing just doesn't work so well off two weeks rest anymore and running dehydrated horses on lasix also adds to the time needed to recover. So the whole thing now is pretty much geared for the layoff being a positive but at the same time if I see a horse running consistently every 3 weeks or so and then is suddenly off for 12 I'm looking at that differently. Yes of course there's all kinds of other stuff you can bring to bear, is it taking money, who is riding, paddock and post parade etc. There's a ton of stuff there which can be 'tells' for people who know what to look for and have those kinds of skill sets.

[lefty359]

I agree. Trainers these days get layoff horses ready to go. So if a horse has good numbers and good odds, it's a play.

[castaway01]

I don't think a layoff is positive or negative anymore. It's so routine that the fear of betting against layoff horses is largely gone. That also takes the financial value out of the layoff. Sure, there are exceptions every year where trainers go on runs and you can take advantage, but you have to be very in tune with a particular circuit (which the "whales" often are as well).

[thaskalos]

If the past performances show that a trainer sends a particular horse to the starting every 3 weeks...then I consider a layoff of longer than a month to be a negative. But if the trainer has shown more "patience" with the horse...then the layoff is a minor concern. In any case...a layoff in a cheaper race always gets a raised eyebrow from me.

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by castaway01

I don't think a layoff is positive or negative anymore. It's so routine that the fear of betting against layoff horses is largely gone.

This seems dead on.


A decent trainer might bring a horse back ready, or might work a horse a couple races into shape. Really hard to know which. If the odds are good, I will bet a layoff horse anytime.


One thing I have noticed at lesser tracks. A lot of times with old broken down claimers, the layoff horses are really strong after their rest.

[Saratoga]

Just to jump in here a little....

The power of a database .....

This is a start where a deep dive can be analyzed

Trainers that had $15 or better since Jan 2023.....

[JohnGalt1]

Defining a layoff has changed over time.

When I started handicapping in the 1980's most authors used 21 to 28 as a layoff line. They reasoned that a horse that doesn't run at least once a month is not earning it's keep. I did too.

William L. Scott was one. He developed Form Factor Ratings in his books, HOW WILL YOUR HORSE RUN TODAY, and TOTAL VICTORY AT THE THREACK.

The form factors were rated with 3 letters representing recency, running line and stretch. Example N+N

Since topic here is lay off horses. I will explain how I handle this.

Scott used 28 days, but between 21 to 28 day he required a workout. It would receive an N for the first letter. With no work outs it would receive a O, If over 28 days, he labeled the form factor as an L for layoff. If workouts of 4f withi two weeks of today's race the rating is L/w. If regular workouts or 5f, the rating is L/w!

He also gave a horse + if its last race was 7 days or less.

I now use the standard 45 days as a layoff line. I don't use the O rating. And because I believe that recency is important, I give the horse a + for 14 days and a red + for seven days.

One other factor I use is one of Ed Bain's trainer angles for layoff horses. 30% with at least 4 wins.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

but at the same time if I see a horse running consistently every 3 weeks or so and then is suddenly off for 12 I'm looking at that differently.

This may be mostly relevant for high class horses that work regularly.

When that happens the first thing I look for is a long gap in the workouts. If the horse typically works between races, but I see a huge gap, I'm going to be more skeptical than if I see the usual pattern of maybe 2 weeks rest after a race and then a workout once a week leading up to the next race.

[shoelessjoe]

Thanks Saratoga for posting that

Whatever happened to the 15 days cutoff from Larry Vogele.

Jeff

[JohnGalt1]

I forgot to add How I rate horses off 6 months or more. I use LL for long lay offs.

And unraced horses I give a w with 4f workouts or w! with 5f workout(s). No workouts or 3f workouts, I leave blank on my worksheet.

[wiretowire68]

Great opinions. I know trainers are handicappers as well and it comes with experience, male, female, issues vs getting fit, money in the barn or lack thereof.. Like I said when I began the thread, there are many factors that are at play and obviously, the barn, the owner, the trainer, the money. Like to me the best two claiming trainers in terms of success are Maker, Linda Rice, Broberg etc. To be a great claiming trainer is to understand the look of a horse and its earning potential for the ownership and then the their is the whole business model.. I would venture to say that layoffs are about how to juggle the issue of money, fitness and the amount of patience mixed with experience.

I use to see 30-45 days. Now big difference between high percentage trainers who are not involved the claiming game. However, again, was looking not just about claiming but the whole layoff question which to me in a computer, considering making adjustments for what is considered a Layofff and then a Long Layoff.