Belmont Stakes

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

Mules, in a relative sense.

After the Derby, a lot of folks were crowning Orb as the next Man-o'-War or Secretariat. ...

Come now. You won't find one poster on here or elsewhere probably that said anything of the sort.

[OCF]

Thoughts on Golden Soul? Mike Welsch liked his last work at CD. I like his chance to get the distance. How do you think he'll like the Belmont surface?

[pondman]

Originally Posted by overthehill

I dont understand the people who are questioning why orb would be running int the belmont. Does anyone here think ORB will not be the favorite going in?

.

He'll wobble down the stretch. He's not the type of horse who runs 3 triple crown races in 5 weeks. I expect him to finish nearly last. They've got to show up for bonus and seed money.

The industry can bill it as a match race, but this one will probably be one of those "what the hell was that" race.

Expect anything to win. I got crushed in the Peter Pan by Incognito. He did okay once they made it to the rail. He's interesting at a huge price.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Come now. You won't find one poster on here or elsewhere probably that said anything of the sort.

Well, I may have exaggerated a bit. After the Derby, a lot of folks may not have proclaimed Orb to be Man-o'-War or Secretariat, but they sure thought he was a shoe-in for the Triple Crown:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...184131390.html
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/orb-s-r...164417093.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...cretariat.html
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/horse...potential.html

I've got a lot of respect for Shug and the connections of Orb - they've been a huge positive influence on the sport. I can understand how "Derby fever" and a win in the Derby after so many years can impair logical thinking.

What I don't understand is how Shug was so confident about Orb after his experience with Easy Goer getting beat in the Derby and Preakness. Easy Goer, IMHO, was a far superior horse, with a record of 20 starts, 14 wins, 5 seconds and a third, and $4.9M in earnings.

Maybe Orb will redeem himself, romp in the Belmont, Travers, and Breeder's Cup Classic, and make a believer out of me. But I'm not holding my breath.

[PaceAdvantage]

Start handicapping for an off track. The weather forecast calls for lots of rain Thursday night through at least Saturday morning/afternoon...

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Start handicapping for an off track. The weather forecast calls for lots of rain Thursday night through at least Saturday morning/afternoon...

Yikes, say it ain't so.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Start handicapping for an off track. The weather forecast calls for lots of rain Thursday night through at least Saturday morning/afternoon...

correct. This from NWS NYC:

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND TIMING FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOW TRACK...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THESE HEAVIER RAINS EAST ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AT ANY RATE...SYSTEM WILL HAVE A TROPICAL CONNECTION... COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT.

[precocity]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Start handicapping for an off track. The weather forecast calls for lots of rain Thursday night through at least Saturday morning/afternoon...

dam Palace Malice walking the dog like oxbow did in the preakness

[Golf man]

Unlimited Budget in the garden spot behind Freedom Child with Oxbow in close pursuit - my three top picks.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Golf man

Unlimited Budget in the garden spot behind Freedom Child with Oxbow in close pursuit - my three top picks.

I expect Unlimited Budget to be overbet as a female, with a female riding her, with the only trainer in recent years of a female Belmont Stakes winner training her.

[Robert Fischer]

I think Freedom Child will crush the field.
It would set up for highly contested battle for spots 2-4.
We could see the pace hurt those with tactical speed. Horses like Oxbow, Incognito and Unlimited Budget should flatten out in this scenario.
For the most part I think the closers will be coming up, and there's a bunch of them. Orb, Revolutionary, Overanalyze look like the best closers.

Then aside from that main scenario you have Midnight Taboo and Vyjack. They go against the grain of my scenario, but these are two of the best horses in the field and they are 30-1 and 20-1.
At the very least I want to blend them in with those 3 closers in the underneath scenario, and then blend all 6 horses in a scenario where Freedom Child merely contends.

w/

[Cratos]

If it rains and the Belmont track becomes muddy, Orb and Revolutionary will be the two horses to beat because they bring both “mud liking” breeding combined with stamina to this race.

Also I typically don’t put much credence in a jockey’s contribution to the outcome of a race except in the Belmont Stakes.

In today’s dirt racing, I think the Belmont is the only race on dirt in North America that is at 1 ½ miles or longer and how a jockey moves its horse during the race is paramount to winning.

Unquestionably, Angel Cordero ride of Bold Forbes to victory in the 1976 Belmont Classics rates up there as one on the best ever, but the worst ride came in 1987 with Chris McCarron aboard Alysheba. According to Alysheba’s trainer, Jack Van Berg, he had told McCarron that Alysheba could “gallop faster than the other horses can run,” and to let him go to the front.

But McCarron reined Alysheba in early, wanting to save him for a stretch run in the mile-and-a-half trip, but Alysheba got boxed in at the head of the stretch was unable to make a move until it was too late therefore missing out on a $5 million bonus for the winner of the Triple Crown at the time.

After another winning race aboard Alysheba a year later, McCarron in the winners’ circle said: “Jack, you're right. He can gallop faster than they can run” and Van Berg snapped back: “You're a year late and five million short.”

[porchy44]

Originally Posted by precocity

dam Palace Malice walking the dog like oxbow did in the preakness

Definitely possible.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by Cratos

After another winning race aboard Alysheba a year later, McCarron in the winners’ circle said: “Jack, you're right. He can gallop faster than they can run” and Van Berg snapped back: “You're a year late and five million short.”

Let's not forget that Alysheba had to go "off lasix" for that race. And yes, the horse won without lasix later in his career, but with only three weeks to adjust without it....?

I agree with your comment on the jockeys though - it's a rider's race in the Belmont....

[nijinski]

Originally Posted by porchy44

Definitely possible.

Well then there we be a nice feel good story and every Classic needs one .
His dam Palace Rumor was by fate , a survivor of the Ellis Park 2005 tornado
ripping through Burl McBrides barn , killing three of his horses and badly injuring the other four .
That night PR stayed at Hal Wiggins barn after she raced , rather than shipping the tired mare home to McBrides at Ellis . . Her luckiest day ! Many
lost lives in this horrific storm .
I believe Palace Malice was also Curlin's first US winner . Good stuff , he's still a bit immature looking compared to Orb but he's working great .

Orb , Palace Malice and Revolutionary ? I'm not seeing Oxbow finishing in
the top three Saturday .
I've thought that before about him though !