Thanks to HANA and BillW......

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Rook

You are doing them a disservice because you keep defending a circuit that charges the serious horseplayers the highest price to play. We would be far better off if all of us put our money into places that give us the lowest effective takeout.

Just because NYRA has big handles doesn't mean they deserve them. It is quite the opposite. They deserve us switching our handle to places like SUN, DED, TUP etc.

you make great points, one problem is if everyone started betting those other tracks I bet they'd raise their rates the way tampa has over the last few yrs.

[Rook]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

you make great points, one problem is if everyone started betting those other tracks I bet they'd raise their rates the way tampa has over the last few yrs.

You make a good point about Tampa. They have a way better reputation than they deserve. Their effective takeout rate is only a half point better than NYRA's, so that puts them right near the bottom of the list too.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Rook

You make a good point about Tampa. They have a way better reputation than they deserve. Their effective takeout rate is only a half point better than NYRA's, so that puts them right near the bottom of the list too.

...and the same thing will happen to the other tracks as they get more handle. That is the way it works. Pool size is just as important as takeout for me. Handle drives price, and there is a reason for that. People think pool size is more important than takeout for the most part. I think they are both important and need to be analyzed together. I bet nearly ALL tracks to varying degrees.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

...and the same thing will happen to the other tracks as they get more handle. That is the way it works. Pool size is just as important as takeout for me. Handle drives price, and there is a reason for that. People think pool size is more important than takeout for the most part. I think they are both important and need to be analyzed together. I bet nearly ALL tracks to varying degrees.

Are you currently betting NY as much as you did in the past?

[Rook]

Originally Posted by cj

...and the same thing will happen to the other tracks as they get more handle. That is the way it works.

That's the way it works as long as people keep putting up with crap like NYRA. It doesn't have to be that way. A track like Delta worked hard at increasing handle by beating NYRA's rates by more than 5 points this past meet. Their daily handle was up 13.8 percent this year.

That is the sort of track that should be supported with our wagers.

Originally Posted by cj

Pool size is just as important as takeout for me.

If you are among the tiny percent of bettors that can clearly overcome double digit effective takeout, that makes sense on a personal level. Otherwise, it is dumb over the long run.

As far as the interests of bettors as a whole, it isn't a close contest. High takeout is a killer, both to the bankroll and the future of the sport .

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by Rook

That's the way it works as long as people keep putting up with crap like NYRA. It doesn't have to be that way. A track like Delta worked hard at increasing handle by beating NYRA's rates by more than 5 points this past meet. Their daily handle was up 13.8 percent this year.

That is the sort of track that should be supported with our wagers.


If you are among the tiny percent of bettors that can clearly overcome double digit effective takeout, that makes sense on a personal level. Otherwise, it is dumb over the long run.

As far as the interests of bettors as a whole, it isn't a close contest. High takeout is a killer, both to the bankroll and the future of the sport .

You make some good points.....but taking the rebate out of the equation,if there were 10 tracks like Delta Downs I would be extremely confident in my long term success in this game.Give me a track with a boatload of horses who have respectable ability..(not populated with one-trick ponys who can only race well on the lead)...tons of different dirt races at slight changes of distances and Im a happy camper.

Are there any tracks you would not touch regardless of rebate?

[Rook]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

Are there any tracks you would not touch regardless of rebate?

Sure, there are a handful of tracks I have not enjoyed playing over the years even though I get a great effective takeout. Those tracks include ELP, FMT, SRP, ALB and ARP.

I can't blame those tracks though. They give me a good deal but my numbers just haven't worked there.

This is in contrast to the NYRA tracks which have really stacked the deck against the horseplayer.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Are you currently betting NY as much as you did in the past?

Not over the winter I didn't.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by Rook

Sure, there are a handful of tracks I have not enjoyed playing over the years even though I get a great effective takeout. Those tracks include ELP, FMT, SRP, ALB and ARP.

I can't blame those tracks though. They give me a good deal but my numbers just haven't worked there.

This is in contrast to the NYRA tracks which have really stacked the deck against the horseplayer.

Thanks Rook,
Of those only payed Ellis and it has not been kind to me either.

[acorn54]

Originally Posted by Rook

I come at it from a perspective of a guy who primarily wants to make money from betting and because of that the quality of the horses and jockeys is a relatively trivial concern. I'll leave that concern to the fan.

As far as the drug testing and the integrity of the races at various tracks, this would be worthy of a long and fascinating thread but I sure wouldn't be nominating NYRA as my shining example there either.

Louisiana and Pennsylvania are two states that don't have a great reputation on Pace Advantage, but they have been my most profitable states over the years.

When a bettor plays a broad range of tracks, the evidence becomes overwhelming that the circuits that have the lowest effective takeout are the ones where it is easiest to make money. NYRA is the worst place (followed by California) for the vast majority of players to come out ahead over the long run.

my betting records show that penn national and the louisiana circuit are some of the most profitable for me also. and yes the california circuit is at the low end of profitability for me, and new york is a mixed bag.
i will say with the evolution in racing to smaller fields as a whole and because of lower rebate since pinnacle quit taking horse bets in the u.s. i have less churn. i am also finding less opportunity for value bets and don't bet as much as i use to. i can't see how anyone can say the evolution of horsebetting over the past couple of years has been an encouraging trend for young blood to get invovled in horsebetting.

[KingChas]

Originally Posted by racingfan378

Saratoga is great, but us handicappers know it is tough as hell to have a winning year at the Spaaaaaaaaaaaa

Are you speaking for yourself or HANA survey members

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Rook

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Originally Posted by cj

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Originally Posted by Rook

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Originally Posted by cj

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Originally Posted by Rook

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Originally Posted by cj

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Why not break down some wager types?
Show what you mean by effective takeout, and be explicit about how people would access these rebates.

Then CJ or someone can counter by doing the same with any wager types that were left out (superfecta for example).

Doesn't seem like you guys are making much progress for either side of the debate over the last several pages.

[Rook]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Why not break down some wager types?
Show what you mean by effective takeout, and be explicit about how people would access these rebates.

Then CJ or someone can counter by doing the same with any wager types that were left out (superfecta for example). ..

It doesn't matter about the wager type because it is the same result. NYRA charges far more for their host fee than most other tracks.

When I talk about effective takeout, this is an example of what I am referring to: NYRA has a WPS takeout of 16%. Fort Erie has a takeout of 16.95%. For the casual fan that goes to the track a few times a year, NYRA is the better deal.

However, for the more serious player who has sought out rebates, Fort Erie has the much better pricing. This is because NYRA charges the ADW around 10% for their signal and smaller tracks like Fort Erie charge as low as 3%.

Since the ADW has only 6% to work with (NYRA 16% takeout -10% fee), the ADW can only afford to give the customer a 5% rebate, and retain 1% to cover costs. For the customer, the effective takeout is 11%.

With Fort Erie, since the ADW is charged 3%, the ADW has 13.95% to work with and can give the customer 11% rebate and the customer's effective takeout is 5.95%.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Why not break down some wager types?
Show what you mean by effective takeout, and be explicit about how people would access these rebates.

Then CJ or someone can counter by doing the same with any wager types that were left out (superfecta for example).

Doesn't seem like you guys are making much progress for either side of the debate over the last several pages.

I've never said a better takeout isn't a good thing, I've just said it is not the only thing. Pool size and takeout are both important factors.

Like I said earlier, it will take a lot of rebate points to make up for getting paid $1,000 for a superfecta that would have paid $5,000 at a track with a big pool. I don't really care about what tracks rook says people should bet, I care about the ones they do bet.

[Rook]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't really care about what tracks rook says people should bet, I care about the ones they do bet.

Too bad NYRA has been gouging you all winter. You could have been able to afford to bet a lot more there.