Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 08-08-2018, 03:47 PM   #31
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
IMO, the dynamics were definitely bad for the inferior speeds trying to keep up with Diversify, but imo that's not automatically the same as saying they were bad for Diversify.

When a track is favoring speed or one of the speeds is dominant, it will sometimes torch the others and go on to victory despite fast fractions.

That's kind of what I am getting at with Diversify and Mind Your Biscuits.

Everyone is going to look at this race and say:

Diversify set a fast pace, killed the other speeds, and won as much the best. Mind Your Biscuits ran OK for 2nd but generally got a good setup. That's a reasonable conclusion and will probably be correct.

My contention is:

It's at least reasonable to wonder if the sealed Saratoga racetrack got speed favoring with all the water on it as has been the case on other days like that. If it did, sure, Diversify won. But perhaps people are overrating his performance and the difference between him and Mind Your Biscuits. He may have actually been a dominant speed on a speed favoring surface and actually got about as good a set of conditions as he's going to get.

On another day, with someone better than Dalmore as the chaser, and an honest track, he could be less of a lock than the 3/5 he's going to be.
I don't disagree

I didn't articulate, but my comment about the 'dynamics' was more in reference to the track configuration being near the 1st-turn going 9F @ 'Toga, and how Mind Your Biscuits was able to take that wHITNEY-1st-turn within his comfort zone(in a weak field, where others did not have that luxury). I didn't learn a lot about MYB going 9 or 10, and as a default, he's still a 1M/7F in my book.

I agree with you about the pace dynamics. Diversify got to play catch-me-if-you-can, Dalmore is not a serious graded stakes horse and had to work on the 1st-turn. Tapwrit would be interesting if he were a price in a marathon race. Backyard Heaven has teased us, but realistically has yet to establish himself as a serious graded stakes horse either.

Diversify is the coolest horse in the world, but he's still a long shot to continue this brief 'dominance' of the division, and the Suburban was the time to have bet him.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-08-2018, 06:24 PM   #32
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
I don't disagree

I didn't articulate, but my comment about the 'dynamics' was more in reference to the track configuration being near the 1st-turn going 9F @ 'Toga, and how Mind Your Biscuits was able to take that wHITNEY-1st-turn within his comfort zone(in a weak field, where others did not have that luxury). I didn't learn a lot about MYB going 9 or 10, and as a default, he's still a 1M/7F in my book.

I agree with you about the pace dynamics. Diversify got to play catch-me-if-you-can, Dalmore is not a serious graded stakes horse and had to work on the 1st-turn. Tapwrit would be interesting if he were a price in a marathon race. Backyard Heaven has teased us, but realistically has yet to establish himself as a serious graded stakes horse either.

Diversify is the coolest horse in the world, but he's still a long shot to continue this brief 'dominance' of the division, and the Suburban was the time to have bet him.
The problem with modern racing is that Diversify would be perfect to come out to DMR and face Accelerate for the title of king of the handicap division. But you know, it's just IMPOSSIBLE to run a fit horse on 2 weeks rest.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-09-2018, 11:26 AM   #33
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,455
Like they used to.....
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-09-2018, 11:56 AM   #34
Lemon Drop Husker
Veteran
 
Lemon Drop Husker's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
Really turned out to be a shit race.


Sure, we'll get a gaggle of excuses for the track condition, the long wait, and all that garbage, but the reality is that a front-runner got out of the gate and put this field to bed in 2 strides in a 9F race.


And behind him, a 1 turn sprint/closer put the rest away.


The entire rest of this field belongs in overnight stakes races at smaller venues...., but as our older male division sits, they are still supposed 'contenders'.



Not gonna lie, the old war horse/bridesmaid Hoppertunity is starting to look better by the day if West Coast and Accelerate aren't able to run come November.
Lemon Drop Husker is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-09-2018, 01:35 PM   #35
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
Not gonna lie, the old war horse/bridesmaid Hoppertunity is starting to look better by the day if West Coast and Accelerate aren't able to run come November.
I'm a big Hoppertunity fan, but I can't see him winning a race like the Classic. If the older division gets decimated one of the 3yos will develop enough to beat Hoppertunity.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-09-2018, 10:39 PM   #36
Lemon Drop Husker
Veteran
 
Lemon Drop Husker's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I'm a big Hoppertunity fan, but I can't see him winning a race like the Classic. If the older division gets decimated one of the 3yos will develop enough to beat Hoppertunity.

Good Magic is the 4/1 favorite at Wynn for the BC Classic
Lemon Drop Husker is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:59 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.