Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 09-22-2023, 06:10 PM   #286
paulbenny
Registered User
 
paulbenny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 189
I realize that. The thing is, I did research for a living. I prefer to substantiate the details myself. I am trying to see something that might be different from what I have read here and it also pertains to who is not going through Oregon and the ownership of those smaller ADWs.

A case in point on information here is the notion that track takeout information is not available. I remember engaging a high-profile industry person who stated it was not on this subject so I worked through my connections and can send two emails out and get it pretty quickly for standardbreds too.

That being said I appreciate your point and I like grinding numbers and cross referencing what people state and doing original research. Thanks again.
paulbenny is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2023, 06:30 PM   #287
Sheffwed
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2022
Posts: 264
fairly certain

Quote:
Originally Posted by turfeyejoe View Post
Please tell us which tracks DON'T attract CAW play because I've yet to find one.
am fairly certain Presque Isle Downs doesn't have CRW action, and actually, there are some very good P4/P5 payouts there at times

they deserve more attention (but not from the CRWs...)
Sheffwed is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2023, 10:13 PM   #288
wisconsin
Registered User
 
wisconsin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Mukwonago, WI
Posts: 3,182
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheffwed View Post
am fairly certain Presque Isle Downs doesn't have CRW action, and actually, there are some very good P4/P5 payouts there at times

they deserve more attention (but not from the CRWs...)


They post payouts for $2, so they appear higher than they really are.
__________________
"I don't always frequent message boards, but when I do, I prefer PaceAdvantage."
wisconsin is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2023, 11:10 PM   #289
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,305
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheffwed View Post
am fairly certain Presque Isle Downs doesn't have CRW action, and actually, there are some very good P4/P5 payouts there at times

they deserve more attention (but not from the CRWs...)
Quote:
Originally Posted by wisconsin View Post
They post payouts for $2, so they appear higher than they really are.
I can't be the only one cracking up reading this.
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2023, 11:38 PM   #290
Sheffwed
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2022
Posts: 264
um

Quote:
Originally Posted by wisconsin View Post
They post payouts for $2, so they appear higher than they really are.
you do know you are allowed to bet $2 on a pick 4 or 5, just checking
Sheffwed is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-23-2023, 01:01 AM   #291
Sheffwed
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2022
Posts: 264
Well

Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
I can't be the only one cracking up reading this.
I suppose you arenít the only warped individual on here
Sheffwed is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-23-2023, 09:48 AM   #292
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/a...model-carries/

why would the racing industry cater to the retail bettor when their returns are so good from what is called "caw's".

Always follow the money, its the elixir.
eventually and perhaps even now, they will be betting against each other and when wrong the returns are large. I see it quite often in the win pools

Attached Images
File Type: png caw and adw.png (257.1 KB, 10 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-23-2023, 10:44 AM   #293
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
from note 2 on this thread.

"Ironically, the decision came after he made a winning bet on the 20-cent jackpot Pick Six at Del Mar. The winners paid $5.40, $14, $5.20, $56.80, $6.60 and $4.40 and the bet paid $3,216. Sumja is convinced it should have paid more and that the reason it didn't is because the CAW players swooped in and took home most of the pool."

I calculate the fair 20 cent ticket payout to be $6198.
I have got to believe the winners bought more than 1- 20 cent ticket.
Whales betting into this will soon become minnows.


computer aided whales, computer aided wages

Attached Images
File Type: png caw and adw-2.png (17.5 KB, 3 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill

Last edited by formula_2002; 09-23-2023 at 10:49 AM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-23-2023, 10:52 AM   #294
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,617
you guys need to keep betting against the CAW and see how long it takes to get rinsed out.
lamboguy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-23-2023, 11:09 AM   #295
castaway01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,804
Quote:
Originally Posted by paulbenny View Post
I realize that. The thing is, I did research for a living. I prefer to substantiate the details myself. I am trying to see something that might be different from what I have read here and it also pertains to who is not going through Oregon and the ownership of those smaller ADWs.

A case in point on information here is the notion that track takeout information is not available. I remember engaging a high-profile industry person who stated it was not on this subject so I worked through my connections and can send two emails out and get it pretty quickly for standardbreds too.

That being said I appreciate your point and I like grinding numbers and cross referencing what people state and doing original research. Thanks again.
I have to admit, I don't know if you're a real person. You worked in the industry for years yet you think that WE think that takeout information is not publicly available? Takeout information is discussed here in detail all the time.

I'm just kinda baffled, so I'll let you do your "research" for your next "article".
castaway01 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-23-2023, 11:25 AM   #296
paulbenny
Registered User
 
paulbenny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 189
I directly engaged a person at the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation who told me it was not readily available.

I am not here often but have increased my presence recently.

It is an important data point to me. If it is to others, it probably should be posted regularly here or at the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation as an alternative example or choice. If I can obtain it, then the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation certainly they can.

I believe it would be helpful for people to update their net takeout tables using the takeout real-time information and the rebates they receive to see what the best option is for them depending upon who they wager with.

Maybe one of the major ADWs should post the information for players.

I also saw people referencing HANA which was incomplete. I have two sources that provided it real time. HPI had it but it was not comprehensive the last time I looked at it or it included the Canadian surcharge which made it cumbersome to deal with.

I am a corporate finance person who happened to work later in my career with the industry in very basic roles or in one case a somewhat inside NDA role and do not profess to be an expert as much as a thorough individual who does research on a variety of subjects far beyond horse racing and am skeptical of secondary source of information.

I appreciate your note regarding it being available here somewhere.
paulbenny is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-23-2023, 11:59 AM   #297
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by paulbenny View Post
I directly engaged a person at the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation who told me it was not readily available.

I am not here often but have increased my presence recently.

It is an important data point to me. If it is to others, it probably should be posted regularly here or at the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation as an alternative example or choice. If I can obtain it, then the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation certainly they can.

I believe it would be helpful for people to update their net takeout tables using the takeout real-time information and the rebates they receive to see what the best option is for them depending upon who they wager with.

Maybe one of the major ADWs should post the information for players.

I also saw people referencing HANA which was incomplete. I have two sources that provided it real time. HPI had it but it was not comprehensive the last time I looked at it or it included the Canadian surcharge which made it cumbersome to deal with.

I am a corporate finance person who happened to work later in my career with the industry in very basic roles or in one case a somewhat inside NDA role and do not profess to be an expert as much as a thorough individual who does research on a variety of subjects far beyond horse racing and am skeptical of secondary source of information.

I appreciate your note regarding it being available here somewhere.
additionally, if you want to get into the weeds, for each horse in a single race sum 1/(odds+1). that will give you the booking %. say it sums to 1.21, the 1/1.21 =0.826, 1-0.826 = 0.173 x 100= track take out %.

brisnet.com has what you may enjoy.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2023, 05:33 PM   #298
paulbenny
Registered User
 
paulbenny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 189
I did some more research and wanted to know from the standpoint of two levels: the appearance of the relationship and the legality of the relationship what people think.

My reading of the relationship between Elite Turf Club and Stronach along with NYRA Bets suggests that the latter two entities have an ownership interest in the former.

I want to caveat my question with pointing out the use of better data and access is not an issue here if people work hard and cut business deals and in this industry case it is rebates. That is business.

From an appearance standpoint--

The theory behind ownership could be strategic which is usually a short-term loss for a longer-term gain but ultimately it is about a gain in cash flow in the overwhelming majority of cases in the longer-term. The short-term is certainly for cash-flow without strict definitions of either short or long-term.

It seems to be a conflict of interest because cash-flows are coming back in part as an owner and as the service provider. It just does not look good on appearances since you are cutting business deals with a customer base which are different for valid reasons (I assume it is the volume of wagering) that are different from other customers and gain on both the business end directly and ownership end indirectly. In other words, you have an incentive to increase the action even more from Elite because of this relationship.

From the legal standpoint:

I would find it difficult to believe the attorneys involved in these companies and contracts have not been anything but very clear that there are no legal issues.

As a result, it seems like it just does not "look good".*

The question is why is there an ownership stake? Maybe for efficiency? Other non-cash flow reasons??
paulbenny is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2023, 06:59 PM   #299
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,946
I donít disagree that the use of rebates and allowing the caw to go directly in the tote and make thousands of bets as late as possible is a business decision. A terrible business decision because it drives the majority of the sports future customers away from the game. Driving away large numbers of customers who in the future might have supported your sport via food, drink. admission. and more importantly creating an exciting and electric atmosphere at least on some days is pretty idiotic. Driving the fish out of the game will ultimately lead to no game at all. But where I question the legality is in the tote access.

If some teams are using.tote access to decipher betting information (for example how much money has been bet on each combination in the pick 6 pool at any given moment) that doesnít strike me as legal. It certainly should not be legal. The argument is that they do not have this kind of access. I personally do not buy it. How can it be prevented and more importantly who has a will to police it?
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2023, 07:35 PM   #300
paulbenny
Registered User
 
paulbenny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 189
You raised an issue I did not even consider independent of the ownership issue. What you are stating never crossed my mind or has never been published in anything I have reviewed thus far.

I know the game as I have lived it live with a coffee and hot dog in the fall at Laurel is gone. It is sad.

The legal point you raise is very interesting and maybe this merits some review. If someone has direct access to information that is not available to other people wagering then that is wrong without question on appearances and certainly is a legal question I am not qualified to answer.

If the direct tote access is to gather information on pool totals that are not available to all, then that seems really problematic. I understand they can run numbers against each other in their computers but what numbers do they have access to?

I again emphasize that I view the appearance issue alone a problem regarding ownership.

Maybe people do not have the resources to challenge this access and at least dig into it further using attorneys.
paulbenny is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
How do you primarily find bettable horses?
Make a formal odds line - 21.70%
23 Votes
Rank the horses in order of preference & compare it to the odds - 21.70%
23 Votes
Feel - 12.26%
13 Votes
Only play against short priced horses I dislike - 5.66%
6 Votes
Look for value oriented trips, angles, situations - 33.02%
35 Votes
Other (describe) - 5.66%
6 Votes
Total Votes: 106
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:49 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.