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Old 08-30-2023, 11:48 AM   #181
maddog42
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Handicapping does seem to be a math problem. Maybe 80 percent. Equine body language, Inside info and trip handicapping probably round out the rest. Those last 3 are a little harder to quantify.
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Old 08-30-2023, 11:56 AM   #182
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Exactly what does Pat achieve by "leaking" this information?

First, he does not help the small bettor by letting you know at which track this is occurring.

Second, he does not give insight on the data to let you know exactly how serious the net-negative on the small bettor might be.

Third, he effectively keeps this information close so that he gives a clear message that he can trade on data which is not available to the public.

Quite frankly, while Pat's intentions might have been pure here, he does nothing to help anyone other than of course pushing his own name forward as being right through a self-serving "I'm hearing big things" post.
Not sure what your post has to do with my post. I am not a huge Pat Cummings fan myself. I have yet to hear him call for the elimination of rebates along with a much lower takeout. That is the only thing that can save this sport. As far as what track it is, doesn't really matter. If they are showing a flat bet profit at one they aren't too far away at the others (if not already there). I have done the math a zillion times. You plug in the numbers and you get the net negative to the public. Your a big NYRA guy, O crunk posted the 10 year roi on non teams at NYRA. 27 to 28 % negative roi in just about every pool (I think wps was the lone exception). 70% of the retail dollar is gone. People don't need Pat Cummings to tell them they are getting shafted. They figured it out long ago. What more evidence do you or any of the decision makers in this industry need to realize that rebates have destroyed this game. All this industry does is tiptoe and dance around the obvious. Low takeout this pool, no caw in this pool. A whole bunch of little band-aids on a hemorrhaging patient. All these charity deals (cough, cough, business arrangements) and not one effort to fix the game the right way. Look at the Kentucky Downs thread. People are sick of this shit. Fix the game before it becomes too late. Many think it is too late already, I don't. But if they stick with the status quo, it is game over. What logic can possibly lead you to believe that his game in it's current state has a future when the current pricing model has led to a loss of 70% of the retail dollar in 20 years
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Old 08-30-2023, 01:38 PM   #183
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Not sure what your post has to do with my post. I am not a huge Pat Cummings fan myself. I have yet to hear him call for the elimination of rebates along with a much lower takeout. That is the only thing that can save this sport. As far as what track it is, doesn't really matter. If they are showing a flat bet profit at one they aren't too far away at the others (if not already there). I have done the math a zillion times. You plug in the numbers and you get the net negative to the public. Your a big NYRA guy, O crunk posted the 10 year roi on non teams at NYRA. 27 to 28 % negative roi in just about every pool (I think wps was the lone exception). 70% of the retail dollar is gone. People don't need Pat Cummings to tell them they are getting shafted. They figured it out long ago. What more evidence do you or any of the decision makers in this industry need to realize that rebates have destroyed this game. All this industry does is tiptoe and dance around the obvious. Low takeout this pool, no caw in this pool. A whole bunch of little band-aids on a hemorrhaging patient. All these charity deals (cough, cough, business arrangements) and not one effort to fix the game the right way. Look at the Kentucky Downs thread. People are sick of this shit. Fix the game before it becomes too late. Many think it is too late already, I don't. But if they stick with the status quo, it is game over. What logic can possibly lead you to believe that his game in it's current state has a future when the current pricing model has led to a loss of 70% of the retail dollar in 20 years
You post the same thing all the time and while I agree with you in concept, can you explain how RACETRACKS eliminate rebates when they are not the ones GIVING the rebates?
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Old 08-30-2023, 02:14 PM   #184
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You post the same thing all the time and while I agree with you in concept, can you explain how RACETRACKS eliminate rebates when they are not the ones GIVING the rebates?
Oh but tracks are absolutely giving rebates. This isn't 2005 any more. Most CRWs have deals either directly with tracks or with track affiliated ADWs.
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Old 08-30-2023, 02:40 PM   #185
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Given that the racetracks and the adws have a huge overlap in ownership I don’t think it would take a group of geniuses to proceed with no rebates. The problem is not that it cannot be done, the problem is the decision makers are convinced that rebates are the way. I apologize for repeating myself continually. Sincerely. I get tired of typing the same speech every month. That being said every bit of information that has come out supports my point of view. When I mention caws will still be very involved in this game the argument I faced was that if you take away rebates the caw would be gone, thus we need rebates. Based off of Pat Cummings’ tweet that is obviously not the case.

All I can do is explain it as I see it. I would hope the people that are responsible for the success of this industry would open there minds a little bit and realize that there is a better way. If not the few remaining horse players can hope and pray for lots of charity.

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Old 08-30-2023, 04:16 PM   #186
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... the argument I faced was that if you take away rebates the caw would be gone, thus we need rebates. Based off of Pat Cummings’ tweet that is obviously not the case.
may have been the second time I've read this, so I need to ask;

Are you saying that "Flat Bet Positive" refers to being positive before rebates?,

I'm not really 100% sure. I kind of thought 'FBP' was just an over-descriptive way of saying '+'.

I'm not really sure, but if 'positive before any rebates' is actually true, it's not only hard to believe, but it is also a symptom of undercapitalized and an innefficient CAW strategy which should be maximizing churn, not ROI.


If you aren't saying that "Flat Bet Positive" refers to being positive before rebates, are you inferring that a positive return with a rebate included means that CAWs would obviously stay in the game if they won 10% less?

- i would find that also hard to believe, less so 'obvious' to believe.
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Old 08-30-2023, 04:18 PM   #187
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All I can do is explain it as I see it. I would hope the people that are responsible for the success of this industry would open there minds a little bit and realize that there is a better way. If not the few remaining horse players can hope and pray for lots of charity.
I've always liked optimists.

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Old 08-30-2023, 05:14 PM   #188
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may have been the second time I've read this, so I need to ask;

Are you saying that "Flat Bet Positive" refers to being positive before rebates?,

I'm not really 100% sure. I kind of thought 'FBP' was just an over-descriptive way of saying '+'.

I'm not really sure, but if 'positive before any rebates' is actually true, it's not only hard to believe, but it is also a symptom of undercapitalized and an innefficient CAW strategy which should be maximizing churn, not ROI.


If you aren't saying that "Flat Bet Positive" refers to being positive before rebates, are you inferring that a positive return with a rebate included means that CAWs would obviously stay in the game if they won 10% less?

- i would find that also hard to believe, less so 'obvious' to believe.
I'm pretty sure FBP means before rebates. That is the story. We know they are positive after rebates.
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Old 08-30-2023, 05:35 PM   #189
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I'm pretty sure FBP means before rebates. That is the story. We know they are positive after rebates.

Something about that does not ring true or within proper context.

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Old 08-30-2023, 06:13 PM   #190
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Jason, my instinct tells me they play at -4 to -5% overall with rebates in the 13 to 16 % range. So how are they climbing the mountain to flat bet positive assuming Pat's tweet is accurate. My guess is their dominance in the multi leg wagers, where they are able to properly weigh each horse in each race and bet as much as they need to (some combos they will have for 50 cents in a pick 5 others they may have for $4 other they may have for $12......) The huge rebates they receive really enables them to do so because they are basically betting risk free. Even if they go on a bad run the rebates will cover most of their losses during the bad run. The public on the other hand gets no rebates, has very limited capital to play with and for the most part can only play to hit once (due to limited capital). If the caw does have the ability to peek into the public's betting (once again not known, but I suspect some of them do) that would give them a ridiculous edge.

While their goal may be to play at -4 to -5% in the trifecta, superfectas etc, I think with the multi legs they have the ability to play at positive roi and churn a lot of money. JMO.
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Old 08-30-2023, 06:37 PM   #191
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Jason, my instinct tells me they play at -4 to -5% overall with rebates in the 13 to 16 % range. So how are they climbing the mountain to flat bet positive assuming Pat's tweet is accurate. My guess is their dominance in the multi leg wagers, where they are able to properly weigh each horse in each race and bet as much as they need to (some combos they will have for 50 cents in a pick 5 others they may have for $4 other they may have for $12......) The huge rebates they receive really enables them to do so because they are basically betting risk free. Even if they go on a bad run the rebates will cover most of their losses during the bad run. The public on the other hand gets no rebates, has very limited capital to play with and for the most part can only play to hit once (due to limited capital). If the caw does have the ability to peek into the public's betting (once again not known, but I suspect some of them do) that would give them a ridiculous edge.

While their goal may be to play at -4 to -5% in the trifecta, superfectas etc, I think with the multi legs they have the ability to play at positive roi and churn a lot of money. JMO.
thanks for the reply, P.

wasn't trying to challenge your statements so much as discuss stuff that I didn't understand.

the math part of my brain is in a coma or something but I've vaguely considered a couple different scenarios, none that make perfect sense.

you're ideas work as well as those if not better
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Old 08-30-2023, 07:11 PM   #192
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There are posters at PA who could make some good suggestions/guesses

you want an edge

i think you may actually want a high raw take (like a wager with 24% raw take stinks for an unrebated player vs a 15% p5, but they may give big rebates to CAWs in these pools)

i'd guess you'd prefer a lower minimum (even with being highly capitalized you like a low minimum to do as Poindexter mentioned and layer your wagers in various increments w/out pushing kelly criterion to hard)

at one popular locale the exacta pools wouldn't be a huge shock given the apparent high amount of inside information and a 18.5% raw take for 2 positions at $1 min.

a 50% p4 could be good at some tracks at 24% highly rebated

a 10% superfecta at a track like Turfway park where there are high variance , high field size, and 10c minimum at 24%? would seem golden

if they are in fact able to see more than 2 placings in probables/coverage-info those wagers would come to mind

I don't know the answers. You wouldn't usually want to flat-bet to profitability if you had the choice, but I guess it's possible depending on specifics.
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Old 08-30-2023, 07:58 PM   #193
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Flat bet profits before rebates is simply incredible when you consider the number of races they are betting. It's one thing to find a couple of overlays each day at each track you are playing. It's another to be playing almost every race at many tracks and show flat bet profits.

There are only a handful of factors that have a major impact on the results of races. Those are fairly well understood and available. Once you start digging into the weeds, you can find things that still have some value, but then you start eliminating races where those things are not present or that don't carry as much weight. So it gets harder to find an overlay.
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Old 08-30-2023, 08:11 PM   #194
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Flat bet profits before rebates is simply incredible when you consider the number of races they are betting. It's one thing to find a couple of overlays each day at each track you are playing. It's another to be playing almost every race at many tracks and show flat bet profits.
Not to mention that the size of their wagers should nullify whatever profit expectation they might have.
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Old 08-30-2023, 08:22 PM   #195
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Not to mention that the size of their wagers should nullify whatever profit expectation they might have.
I find it mind boggling.

Granted, I don't look at a lot of races. I pass the races where I know I don't have the knowledge or information needed to find a legitimate overlay. But when I do consider a race, I feel like I know almost everything I need to know to potentially find an overlay. Yet, I am constantly passing on races I handicap because the odds seem fair enough to not be worth a play. To find that many playable races, have the size of your bets reduce your advantage, and still have profits before rebates is amazing.
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