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Old 09-14-2023, 12:00 PM   #16
classhandicapper
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
On form lines he clearly took a step back unless you think Mirahmadi is on the upswing.
We all know he took a step back, we are debating degrees.

On one set of figures it was extreme and on another two sets it was less.

That's the question.

I won't argue that Mirahmadi is a legit stakes horse, but I will argue he ran way way better in that last maiden race than it looks. He was very wide pushing a very fast pace (bad enough) on a day where my flow data suggests that pushing a fast pace was worse than usual (even worse). I had him on my "horses to watch" list to play back. The fact that I didn't play a cold exacta with him underneath the winner has had me pissed off since they ran the race.
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Old 09-14-2023, 12:40 PM   #17
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I wouldn’t base a negative opinion of Prince of Monaco on Mirahmadi. The barn thought highly enough of Mirahmadi to debut him in a stake. He came back and sat on a dead rail second time out before running way better than it looks in the route race. He wasn’t the average 3 race maiden you’d see in a race like this.

Wasn’t Prince of Monaco always going to regress here after getting a monster setup in a super fast race in the Best Pal?
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Old 09-14-2023, 12:50 PM   #18
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Especially ones two months away, where you not only don't know who's running, or what their pps will look like?
yea, you know it. get those future book bets in.
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Old 09-14-2023, 12:58 PM   #19
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I think Mirahmadi looks like he might be better than Denman's Call, from a few years back.
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Old 09-14-2023, 03:49 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
We all know he took a step back, we are debating degrees.
That's why I qualified the statement with "clearly", as in a distinct step back rather than a questionable one.

Quote:
I won't argue that Mirahmadi is a legit stakes horse, but I will argue he ran way way better in that last maiden race than it looks. He was very wide pushing a very fast pace (bad enough) on a day where my flow data suggests that pushing a fast pace was worse than usual (even worse). I had him on my "horses to watch" list to play back. The fact that I didn't play a cold exacta with him underneath the winner has had me pissed off since they ran the race.
I'll take your word that Mirahmadi was up against it in his two turn maiden failure in terms of race dynamics, but to say he ran a good race is pushing it.

The horse came off the turn and bore out horrendously then lugged in dramatically when overcorrected before the jock had no choice but to snatch him up and hold him steady to the wire. That's not the mark of a horse that is on the upswing.

In his earlier losses he was devoid of both speed from the gate & the front-running style favored by Baffert. He finished both races like a horse that is not being allowed to develop his natural running style. Baffert did the same thing last year with Doppelganger (like Mirahmadi, a son of Into Mischief) & derailed that horse's 3yo year before getting utterly humiliated by Brittany Russell this year when she took over & let the horse come off the pace. She was rewarded with a Grade 1 win in the Carter.

You can say Baffert may have bent Mirahmadi to his will finally as the horse was able to make the lead in the Futurity, although I don't think there was much speed lined up to begin with. And at the end of the day, he is still a maiden. He didn't make any false moves in the stretch this time but he had to be pushed to switch leads & the jock was giving him reminders on his right shoulder lest he bear out again.

Baffert has been desperate with this horse after looking foolish with all the hype ahead of that weak Fasig Tipton Stakes where he made no impression on a horse that came back to get buried in the Best Pal. He's already tried stretching him out with disastrous results. Maybe he can throw him on the turf next & then try claimers after that, looking to follow Charismatic's career arc.

To me, he looks like this year's version of Hejazi. I guess that's a compliment since that one eventually broke his maiden...
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Old 09-15-2023, 12:14 PM   #21
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That's why I qualified the statement with "clearly", as in a distinct step back rather than a questionable one.
I'm not sure if you look at multiple sets of figures, but we are talking about significantly different views in this case. That's why I pointed it out.

This kind of stuff is a pet peeve of mine. It's not that I think I can do better, but if you use figures as an important input you will often interpret race results (and create betting lines) that are dramatically different depending on whose figures you use. So IMO it's worth noting these differences when they occur before pulling the trigger on a bet.
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Old 09-15-2023, 11:15 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I'm not sure if you look at multiple sets of figures, but we are talking about significantly different views in this case. That's why I pointed it out.

This kind of stuff is a pet peeve of mine. It's not that I think I can do better, but if you use figures as an important input you will often interpret race results (and create betting lines) that are dramatically different depending on whose figures you use. So IMO it's worth noting these differences when they occur before pulling the trigger on a bet.
Fair enough, but aside from figures, rudimentary inputs like the form of the beaten field help shed light on the result, especially if competing figure-making methodologies can't come up with a clear consensus.

I'd imagine that it's something of a good thing that different sets of figures can draw different conclusions & have their relative strengths and weaknesses in a pari-mutuel betting environment.

Meanwhile, another angle to consider is who was missing from the Del Mar Futurity field. Mission Beach went to the Hopeful & bombed in a meltdown event. Muth, second in the Best Pal, went with him, only to be scratched (he worked a few days later at Del Mar but did make the trip to NY). Impressive maiden winner, Pastor T, who broke his maiden well despite being caught wide throughout was tragically injured when working presumably for this race.

So not only was Prince of Monaco's performance underwhelming, it also took place in a very watered down affair, where one might expect conditions were ripe for another facile if ultimately slower effort.
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Old 09-16-2023, 10:57 AM   #23
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Fair enough, but aside from figures, rudimentary inputs like the form of the beaten field help shed light on the result, especially if competing figure-making methodologies can't come up with a clear consensus.
.
100% agree

I was finally able to prove to myself that combining figures with a more qualitative approach produced superior results to the figures alone using an automated class rating and my database a number of years ago. So if you actually start digging into fields, looking at the field qualitatively, looking at who beat who by how much with what trip, it’s going to give you a clear edge over just figures. And because it’s a lot of work to look up every field to see the quality top to bottom (as you obviously know), most people don’t do it.

That has been my approach for a long time. It’s finding the right balance and what to do when those kinds of comparisons disagree with the figures significantly that still gets tricky.
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Old 09-16-2023, 02:40 PM   #24
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100% agree

I was finally able to prove to myself that combining figures with a more qualitative approach produced superior results to the figures alone using an automated class rating and my database a number of years ago. So if you actually start digging into fields, looking at the field qualitatively, looking at who beat who by how much with what trip, it’s going to give you a clear edge over just figures. And because it’s a lot of work to look up every field to see the quality top to bottom (as you obviously know), most people don’t do it.

That has been my approach for a long time. It’s finding the right balance and what to do when those kinds of comparisons disagree with the figures significantly that still gets tricky.
I have been messing around with how I pick horses this summer in relation to more a power ranking type system..it has not been successful.

Going back to trying to figure out what it will take to win the race figure wise, is a horse capable of doing that, and will they get that type of trip setup to make it happen.
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Old 09-17-2023, 09:55 AM   #25
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Going back to trying to figure out what it will take to win the race figure wise, is a horse capable of doing that, and will they get that type of trip setup to make it happen.
I used to start with a figure and adjust it for prior trip. Then I’d make my pace projection for today and consider other relevant factors. But when I would see all the figure discrepancies from source to source (some quite large) it would rattle me unless I had a strong opinion on who had the race right. Now I think more along the lines of figure ranges and ask “does this horse fit on figures” and try to separate them qualitatively and using other factors.
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