Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
You don't think there have been successful handicappers who just picked winners?
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Of course. But they were also picking overlays.
There is no other way to make money, other than to bet on horses who are paying more than they should. It's impossible to make money otherwise.
Let's make this simple. If you bet on three 2-1 shots, you should win once, on average, since 2-1 equates to roughly 33.33% chance of winning. If you only win once, you break even. You haven't bet on an overlay. You have to bet on horses who are paying more than they should, to make money. Even if you aren't actively making an odds line and "looking" for overlays, if you don't bet on horses that are paying more than they should (in the above example, betting on a horse with a 33.33% chance of winning that is going off at 5-2, which makes you money), you can not win. Thus you can not win if you don't bet on overlays.
If you're winning long term, you're betting on overlays, whether you are actively aware of this or not, you are betting on overlays if you are winning in the long term.