*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

This is the "secret play" There is no button for it--you just click the porche-looking logo--and if any plays they will appear. Today at Tampa if you would have clicked the logo--this is what you would have gotten:



Actually, it isn't a secret play...we just were short one button, so we improvised.

I found this play studying the pp's...and noticed a horse back to the races in a matter of days. This is immediately after the horse ran one of his worst races showing. You have to wonder why--if this horse can barely get out of his own way...why is he back so fast?

I'll let you take a guess...either the horse's connections haven't got a clue--or the trainer is smart as a whip and is hoping for a big score on his "worst race last" horse.

[sharkey11]

NCG question just how are you interpiting the DD numbers are you looking for overlays in the odds calculated to the ML or the odds shown at the track thanks CFS

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by sharkey11

NCG question just how are you interpiting the DD numbers are you looking for overlays in the odds calculated to the ML or the odds shown at the track thanks CFS

You click the DD Calculator:








Then find the DD "will-pays" in the tote area. Simply transfer those odds into the WILL-PAY boxes on the DD calculator. The will-pay amounts are divided by the horse's ML, to get the odds. It has nothing to do with the win pool for this race. Since the first end of the double is already over--those will-pays will never change. They don't allow any more betting after the 1st part of the double-thus the reason they never change.




The top-3 choices ran 1-2-3. I used this race because it was easier to explain--they don't all win, of course.
I gotta tell you, this is a lot of fun, and you can win yourself some money with careful wagering. I play my spot plays and the DD's now--and not much else. Have fun--NCG

[sharkey11]

ok NCG i thank you for the explanation. was the 5 @ TAM yesterdays 2nd race a DD play then i used it as one . just checking to see if im using it corectly and thanks

[NorCalGreg]

A customer recently asked if HDW files work with Pace-View products.

This is directly from Steve the programmer:

"HDW files absolutely will NOT work unless they are jCapper files from the jCapper program. The Jcapper program downloads HDW files and then will produce a data file with exactly the same file structure as a BRIS data file but it has to start with HDW."


So there ya go

[OzYank]

Hi Greg,
Question about your Platinum Power numbers in the new Trainer Moves program. Have you tweaked the formula calculations?
Reason I ask is that I noticed the #1 Power number in race 1 at Parx tomorrow shows in your Best 5 and Platinum programs but in Trainer Moves it has the
#1 + #2 PN - Plat shows + and TM shows +

Edit: I also noticed that the actual number value is slightly different in Trainer Moves, for example I have seen it range from 1 pt to about 5 and in the case above the 6 horse has no number value at all in TM

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by OzYank

Hi Greg,
Question about your Platinum Power numbers in the new Trainer Moves program. Have you tweaked the formula calculations?
Reason I ask is that I noticed the #1 Power number in race 1 at Parx tomorrow shows in your Best 5 and Platinum programs but in Trainer Moves it has the
#1 + #2 PN - Plat shows + and TM shows +

Edit: I also noticed that the actual number value is slightly different in Trainer Moves, for example I have seen it range from 1 pt to about 5 and in the case above the 6 horse has no number value at all in TM

I was wondering about that myself...this is today's Parx Trainer Moves TOP POWER:




That big winner in the 2nd--I noticed on PLATINUM POWER it was a different horse than Trainer Moves shows. I'll alert the programmer to the issue, and hope he can fix the glitch there.

Thanks Oz

-NCG

[OzYank]

No worries mate.....
If I had to take a guess I imagine his equation to calculate the PN is using your new speed calculations you mentioned whereas its the best 3 of last 4 races...that could easily change the PN value and rankings.

Apart from that am loving it so far......all your products actually!!

[NormanTD]

Originally Posted by OzYank

Hi Greg,
Question about your Platinum Power numbers in the new Trainer Moves program. Have you tweaked the formula calculations?
Reason I ask is that I noticed the #1 Power number in race 1 at Parx tomorrow shows in your Best 5 and Platinum programs but in Trainer Moves it has the
#1 + #2 PN - Plat shows + and TM shows +

Edit: I also noticed that the actual number value is slightly different in Trainer Moves, for example I have seen it range from 1 pt to about 5 and in the case above the 6 horse has no number value at all in TM

Hey Oz. How ya doin?

Greg said he would let me field this question for him since I have all the code here in front of me.

I need to do this in a way that will not give out the exact formula for POWER NUMBER. It's top secret and only Greg and I have the security clearance to see it but..............

The POWER NUMBER uses the trainer win percentage in the calculation.

Platinum only looked at the trainer stats in the current year and then if some criteria is not met, it would then look at (and use) trainer stats for current year and previous year.

TRAINER MOVES looks first at this meet stats and then will move to current year stats if some criteria for this meet is not met. Then, if meet stats and current year stats still do not meet some criteria, it will look at stats from this meet, current year and previous year and then on top of that, there must be some criteria met for the combination of meet, current year and previous year.

So I hope I answered your question. If not, let me know and I'll take another shot at answering.

Steve aka NormanTD

[oughtoh]

Power Numbers seem to work fine. Parx race 1 $16 winner. Race 6 $22 winner and with second power horse a $1 exacta that paid $98. In the first at Mahoning Valley paid $37.60. If you used the horse from early speed, 12-1ml, it paid $18 with a DD of $574. So that is 3 nice winner from the 1&2 power number. I was planning on playing today, but something came up unexpectedly that I had to take care of. This was the first day I looked at the program. Real easy to use.

[OzYank]

Thanks for the explanation - I was just checking that something hadn't gone awry as I had all 3 products open and noticed the differences....so bet on both hahahahaha. However will take that all into account for future handicapping and betting.

I did have a problem today with the scratching interface for MVR, any scratchings after the 3rd race all were off by one, so if I wanted to scratch the 5 it looked fine until i saved and when i went to that race the 5 was still showing but the 6 was gone etc. Easier to just adjust it on the fly as I noticed it so not sure if it was a dodgy data file I got from BRIS.

Anyway thanks again !!!!!!

[oughtoh]

Well I finally sit down to play the last race at Parx, have to bet on the phone since I live in Az now, my daughter calls with a problem. When I finally get her off the phone the race was long over. The power numbers were 4&13. 13 won and paid $27.80 exacta with the 4 paid $144. The early speed numbers were 6&11, which came in 3rd and fourth for a 50cent tri for$945 and a 10 cent super for $991. Hope someone got these at Parx today and cashed some tickets, unlike me.

[NorCalGreg]

So...if you're in PLATINUM...use that power number. If in TRAINER MOVES use that one. There is almost no difference- or a point or two, in most cases.

Here's a spot play I came up with today. You can add your own rules if you can improve it--post here and let us know if you don't mind:




*you'll notice I left JLO CAN DANCE off...there were too many from the 4th on the list-indicating a tough race. Why bother? The perfect opportunity is when a longshot is the only horse that made the "top-15" list. The 3 horses from the 8th all ran 1-2-3.
-NCG

[wolsons]

Hit a nice easy one in 3rd at PRX today -#7 Hizamm came up with DD odds of 8.8-1, next lowest odds were 16-1, Hizamm won at $25.00, this one stood out like a sore thumb!

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by wolsons

Hit a nice easy one in 3rd at PRX today -#7 Hizamm came up with DD odds of 8.8-1, next lowest odds were 16-1, Hizamm won at $25.00, this one stood out like a sore thumb!

That simple DD play is pretty darn good! Steve, I believe most horse bettors...if they have to do any work at all (like filling in the will-pay boxes) would rather just click a button and be done with "handicapping"

I didn't get a chance to do any DD plays at Parx today...glad you caught that one!

-NCG