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Old 12-06-2018, 09:24 PM   #16
bobphilo
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Originally Posted by rispa View Post
Excuse me, that should read 2 full seconds slower than par; not lengths. Sorry for the confusion.



Thanks.
Ah, that does make a difference. I find that the 2 second mark for deviation from par is where the final time begins to be significantly affected. I haven't done it on a quantitative level but when a horse deviates from par by 2 seconds I give it's performance figure a plus mark indicating it's final time, not necessarily the winner unless it won, but its own final, time would be better had it run a more even pace for that track.
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Old 12-06-2018, 10:00 PM   #17
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my question would be..... WHY do you think turf and dirt are different as regards pace?
pretty sure the riders don't go out there and think...."we are on turf today.....we have to go slower early than if we were on dirt."
Here I am in agreement with you, though we are in the minority view. It seems that many feel that the laws of physics cease to exist when the surfaces change. Deviation from even pace is just as inefficient on grass, dirt or moon dust. The fact that more grass races than dirt races are won from off the pace has more to do with the self fulfilling prophecy that closers have the advantage on the grass. Actually riders, at least in the U.S. do go out their thinking, "This is turf, I have to go out slow early". The better horses are ridden inefficiently slow early and win due to their superiority despite their disadvantages sectionals.

The advantage of even pace running not only applies to different surfaces but also to different species of animals as proven by studies. It even applies to cars where maintaining a steady pace yields the most efficient MPG.

A similar situation used to exist in boxing (another sport tied down by tradition). It used to be believed that abstaining from sex would make a fighter stronger so since all boxers did this all the champions were abstainers and it was believed that abstinence was the way to train. It was also believed that boxers should not drink any water between rounds so, of course all the champions fought in a dehydrated state. This disadvantage was considered an advantage because, like in racing, convention trumped science. Why study the science when you can remain comfortable with the "good old fashioned traditions". Just like the old champs did.

I now suggest we retire to the nearest bomb shelter for daring to use science to debunk one of the sports sacred cows.
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Old 12-07-2018, 12:43 PM   #18
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Here I am in agreement with you, though we are in the minority view. It seems that many feel that the laws of physics cease to exist when the surfaces change. Deviation from even pace is just as inefficient on grass, dirt or moon dust. The fact that more grass races than dirt races are won from off the pace has more to do with the self fulfilling prophecy that closers have the advantage on the grass. Actually riders, at least in the U.S. do go out their thinking, "This is turf, I have to go out slow early". The better horses are ridden inefficiently slow early and win due to their superiority despite their disadvantages sectionals.

The advantage of even pace running not only applies to different surfaces but also to different species of animals as proven by studies. It even applies to cars where maintaining a steady pace yields the most efficient MPG.....
Try going to a beach and running on the packed wet sand versus knee-deep water. Running a mile under each condition should make you understand why certain styles fit certain surfaces better.

Horse racing is not a new game. Do you really believe that someone has not figured out the best way to win a race given a horse's attributes?
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Last edited by cj; 12-08-2018 at 02:04 PM. Reason: Fixed quote
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Old 12-07-2018, 02:19 PM   #19
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Do you really believe that someone has not figured out the best way to win a race given a horse's attributes?

That's right.

Dirt and turf are significantly different and the game has evolved to try to maximize efficient performance.

That doesn't mean they ride every race efficiently, just that in general; they are relatively efficient.
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Old 12-07-2018, 02:58 PM   #20
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another valuable piece of advice; I especially recommend verifying 'off-track' pace figures, be it dirt or turf.

Bris in particular has a very difficult time with off tracks in their '+-' ratings. If you do not use replays and/or charts, and are a brisnet PP user, you may want to exclude possible plays from extreme pace on off tracks.
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Old 12-08-2018, 09:00 AM   #21
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Thanks for all the responses. Does anyone know if Beyer and/or if Timeform adjust their speed figures to counteract slow paces?
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Old 12-08-2018, 09:47 AM   #22
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[quote=AndyC;2404412]
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Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Here I am in agreement with you, though we are in the minority view. It seems that many feel that the laws of physics cease to exist when the surfaces change. Deviation from even pace is just as inefficient on grass, dirt or moon dust. The fact that more grass races than dirt races are won from off the pace has more to do with the self fulfilling prophecy that closers have the advantage on the grass. Actually riders, at least in the U.S. do go out their thinking, "This is turf, I have to go out slow early". The better horses are ridden inefficiently slow early and win due to their superiority despite their disadvantages sectionals.

The advantage of even pace running not only applies to different surfaces but also to different species of animals as proven by studies. It even applies to cars where maintaining a steady pace yields the most efficient MPG...../QUOTE]

Try going to a beach and running on the packed wet sand versus knee-deep water. Running a mile under each condition should make you understand why certain styles fit certain surfaces better.

Horse racing is not a new game. Do you really believe that someone has not figured out the best way to win a race given a horse's attributes?
Yes there is a difference between running on loose versus packed sand versus knee deep water. The one thing they have in common however is that that the most efficient way to run over either surface is to distribute your energy evenly.

Mistakes have been part of what was considered general knowledge for eons until myths were debunked by science. Medical treatment has been around a lot longer than racing and yet for centuries it was believed that bleeding a patient was the treatment of choice.

In sports, boxers believed for a long time that sexual abstinence was essential in training and fighters would let themselves get dehydrated because they thought they should not drink water between rounds. It's only relatively recently that the sport has turned to science and realized exercise physiology has thought them better. Some old diehard managers have still refused to change these beliefs.

Just because people have been doing something for a long time does not mean it cannot be improved. The quest for knowledge is an ongoing process.
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Old 12-08-2018, 10:30 AM   #23
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As far as figure makers adjusting the final figure for pace goes, I am pretty sure Timeform adjusts, Bris is computer generated and the adjustment is built in also, Beyer might but am not sure about them.

My question is why, as a handicapper, you would be using a race with such an extreme, to help make a decision on how talented the horse is? Such a extreme has already caused the original poster to question his own figures. It should also cause the handicapper to question the race for all the horses involved. You can not accurately account for the extreme and all of its affect on the outcome of a race. The only thing you can do is remove it from the process, and use other races to base your decision on.
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Old 12-08-2018, 12:08 PM   #24
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As far as figure makers adjusting the final figure for pace goes, I am pretty sure Timeform adjusts, Bris is computer generated and the adjustment is built in also, Beyer might but am not sure about them.

My question is why, as a handicapper, you would be using a race with such an extreme, to help make a decision on how talented the horse is? Such a extreme has already caused the original poster to question his own figures. It should also cause the handicapper to question the race for all the horses involved. You can not accurately account for the extreme and all of its affect on the outcome of a race. The only thing you can do is remove it from the process, and use other races to base your decision on.
TimeformUS does adjust its final figure for pace but Bris, Beyer, Equibase, T-Graph and Rags do not. The advantage of adjusting for pace is to give a horse credit for having run a race unevenly. It is an attempt to correct its final figure to what it would have likely run if it had run a better early pace. I do see your point that if a horse did run extremely an fast or slow early pace it would not be the best race to judge a horse's ability, especially if one uses the unadjusted final figure. In either case it is always better to use the last most representative race of a horse in terms of pace, distance, surface and trip. However, in many cases the horse's pace was enough to affect it's final figure but not enough to be a throwout. that's where a pace adjusted final figure is most useful. but not extreme enough to make That's what TFUS does when it gives the Spotlight Figure.
Just because the pce of the race was fast doesn't mean that the horse's own pace figure was fast too. It may have laid back off that hotpace. That's why you should use the individual horse's pace figure rather than the one for the leader.

Last edited by bobphilo; 12-08-2018 at 12:22 PM.
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Old 12-08-2018, 02:28 PM   #25
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.....Yes there is a difference between running on loose versus packed sand versus knee deep water. The one thing they have in common however is that that the most efficient way to run over either surface is to distribute your energy evenly........

Just because people have been doing something for a long time does not mean it cannot be improved. The quest for knowledge is an ongoing process.
You beg the question, "What is distributing energy evenly and how does that relate to running style?" And as with humans aren't horses also physically different from one another? One horse might be capable of running faster while another might have more stamina.
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Old 12-08-2018, 03:03 PM   #26
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You beg the question, "What is distributing energy evenly and how does that relate to running style?" And as with humans aren't horses also physically different from one another? One horse might be capable of running faster while another might have more stamina.


often overlooked in "energy distribution" stuff is that we have to go around turns...

Turns change distribution... prerequisite of certain fundamentals and behavior...

and then there's 'relative position' ... it's like market position... or 'leverage'... We talk about lone speed all the time. We talk about having the inside on a turn or the outside on an extended backstretch... and the contenders themselves can create something from position by forcing rivals to work...

and there's even more than that...


It's not like putting your camry in 'cruise control'
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 12-08-2018 at 03:05 PM. Reason: [B]"energy distribution"[/B] stuff
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Old 12-08-2018, 05:10 PM   #27
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often overlooked in "energy distribution" stuff is that we have to go around turns...

Turns change distribution... prerequisite of certain fundamentals and behavior...

and then there's 'relative position' ... it's like market position... or 'leverage'... We talk about lone speed all the time. We talk about having the inside on a turn or the outside on an extended backstretch... and the contenders themselves can create something from position by forcing rivals to work...

and there's even more than that...


It's not like putting your camry in 'cruise control'
I agree with your viewpoint. I think it is important to agree on the meaning of terms such as "energy distribution" to avoid misunderstandings.
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Old 12-08-2018, 08:27 PM   #28
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I agree with your viewpoint. I think it is important to agree on the meaning of terms such as "energy distribution" to avoid misunderstandings.
Energy distribution means exactly what it says. How a horse distributes its energy over the course of the distance run. The most efficient distribution of energy comes with even pace running. This is generally indicated by even sectional times with the exception of splits that are run around a turn since it requires additional energy used in the form of centripetal force to keep from drifting out. Because of this a horse can run a slightly slower split around a turn and still said to be running even pace.

An exception I have noticed to the advantage of even pace running is in dirt sprints. This is likely due to the momentum gained by a faster than optimal early pace in these races which mitigates the fatigue caused by running faster than even pace early. One sees a similar effect in 400 meter races in human Track (equivalent to 6F horse races) where the momentum gained in the first quick 300 meters helps carry the runner's speed through the final 100. As the race distance stretches out from these extended strints the advantage of even pace distribution of energy dominates.

There is also an exception to optimal even pace energy distribution in dirt 6F dirt sprints having to do with slippage, traction and energy return of dirt vs grass and synthetic surfaces which is a bit more complex which I will cover in a later post. These exceptions are still consistent with the laws of physics.
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Old 12-09-2018, 11:39 AM   #29
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Thanks for all the responses. Does anyone know if Beyer and/or if Timeform adjust their speed figures to counteract slow paces?
TimeformUS adjusts their final figure based on early pace, both slow and fast (mostly based on 1st call). They also give the final figure before it is adjusted for pace. Beyer, Bris, Equibase and the Sheets (TG and Rags) do not. TG and Rags do adjust for ground loss.

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Old 12-09-2018, 11:49 AM   #30
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Back to the OP question.
If the race is 2 seconds slow, was it because of the track (a soggy bog) or riding tactics.

If it was track condition, I would not use that race to handicap another race unless the conditions were the same.

Just because you can adjust a race doesn't mean the horse can adjust to the conditions.

Draw a line through that race. If you don't have another paceline to use, maybe that horse you are looking at isn't a good contender to begin with.
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