Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 12-12-2018, 05:06 PM   #91
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
I cleared up the misunderstanding with cj and we both agree that dirt is more tiring than grass. One only has to look at the times for dirt vs turf races, especially for the closing sectionals to see that dirt is more tiring despite the fact that the tighter turns on turf tend to slow horses down. there are several reasons why in dirt sprints there is an advantage to running faster than even pace early but the one you cite is not one of them. If the closers are too tired to catch the front runners then the leaders will be be even more tired from setting the early pace, unless the leaders are exceptional superior horses able to withstand a fast pace because they have a high cruising speed. However we are evaluating horses of similar abilities in order to compare the different surfaces.
Dirt is more tiring since on that surface their is more slippage, less traction and less energy return than on grass.

I have already posted several times the most likely reason why dirt sprints seem to violate the principle of advantage of even pace running so I will just briefly summarize by saying that the momentum generated by high early speed mitigates the tiring effect of setting a fast pace. This effect diminishes as the race distance increases.

As for the example of a superior horse overcoming the disadvantage of
having run a slow inefficient pace on grass, that just shows that running an inefficient pace (fast or slow) is a disadvantage that it takes a superior horse to overcome.
Horses have varying degrees of natural speed and stamina even when they have similar overall ability.

Front runners typically have more natural speed. So while they may be running faster in the early part of the race and using more energy, they may not be taking that much more out of themselves (or even as much) as the closers with less natural early speed that are trying to keep up.

That's why on dirt the closers have a tough time catching up even when they have similar overall ability and even though they are "distributing their energy more evenly". The surface is tiring and they are getting tired too.

The positional advantage of natural speed is sometimes greater than the amount of energy used getting that superior position.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 12-12-2018 at 05:07 PM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2018, 11:19 PM   #92
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Horses have varying degrees of natural speed and stamina even when they have similar overall ability.

Front runners typically have more natural speed. So while they may be running faster in the early part of the race and using more energy, they may not be taking that much more out of themselves (or even as much) as the closers with less natural early speed that are trying to keep up.

That's why on dirt the closers have a tough time catching up even when they have similar overall ability and even though they are "distributing their energy more evenly". The surface is tiring and they are getting tired too.

The positional advantage of natural speed is sometimes greater than the amount of energy used getting that superior position.
If they are using more energy early in the race to get superior position they will have less energy left at the end to to hold their lead. Superior position will be eaten up quickly if it uses up energy inefficiently, especially if used in a valley pace pattern. The fact that this is happening on dirt is irrelevant since the tiring dirt track will be just as tiring to the leaders as to the closers.

I think what you mean to say is that if they have natural speed they can run fast more efficiently and NOT use up a lot of energy in doing so, which I would agree with. This holds true on any surface

The main reason that sprinters can get away with inefficient pace patterns is not due to superior position but from the superior momentum they carry into the stretch from their early speed. Momentum can mitigate the fatiguing effect of early speed. If you've ever seen the extended sprints of 400 meters in human track, which are equivalent to 6 furlong races in horse racing, you will see the same principle of the momentum of early speed carrying runners who run fast early splits through the stretch even when racing on a very fast rubberized track.

The closers are dooming themselves if they try to play the speed horse's game and try to keep up with a pace out of their comfort zone. They do better if they run their even pace race and hope the leaders tire themselves out.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2018, 11:31 PM   #93
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,468
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
What you say here may be 100% true, but we are having a pace-handicapping conversation here...and I insist that a practical example of the applicability of certain pace-handicapping theories would lend a lot to our discussion. Yes...the overall object of this game is "finding value". But, IMO...that's a topic for another thread.
Yup. Let's see this stuff in action before the race is run.
If the winner pays 2-5, who cares? Let's see how we use the ideas on real life.

What about Aqu, Race 7 Thursday, 1 mile, OC 25k/nw1x NYB.
Might get 7 or 8 starters.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-13-2018, 03:36 AM   #94
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Race #7:

The early lead should be contested between the , and . The , and chasing, and the and trailing.

The and are the most likely leaders at the second call, putting the into chase mode. The having the best pace #'s can put away the and bids for the win. The only other horse to hold off becomes the .
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-13-2018, 10:01 AM   #95
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
not crazy about that 7th race

If the 1 entry gets a sub for Lezcano and enters BOTH, and takes money, the logical thing is take a good look at the 2. Could be some value there if the 2 isn't a total dud. (listen to Andy's take as well)

Have to think the more likely scenario is half of the 1entry scratching, and then both 1 and 2 vying for favoritism.

Doesn't leave a very big slice of the pizza, and I have a big appetite. I'll look elsewhere... (meaning Florida).

The 4 Gentle Annie is the filly that fits this thread's content (although the last couple/few pages of this thread feels like an old 15-round fight between tomato cans...).
The 4 made up some ground while wide in a slow-paced race last time. Of the 2nd/3rd/4th finishers, you could make a case that she was best. Her form suggests a possible key under the tri and super(and maybe under a $1 exacta) with the chalk up top. Unfortunately, she doesn't want to change leads and isn't even the longest shot (likely shorter odds than 3,7). Not really enough value, but if you read all this and have committed to playing a dimer super or something don't toss her from 3rd/4th.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-13-2018, 10:25 AM   #96
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
I think what you mean to say is that if they have natural speed they can run fast more efficiently and NOT use up a lot of energy in doing so, which I would agree with. This holds true on any surface.
That's not exactly what I am saying, but it's close.

I am saying that since horses have varying amounts of natural speed even when they have similar overall ability, running faster early will have different impacts on them.

However, I am also saying that if a horse with a lot more natural speed than his competitors uses "some" of it to open up a bigger advantage over them turning for home, it can improve his chances of winning unless he overdid it. If a horse is running well within himself, the extra length he opens up from running a 1/5 faster early can be worth more than the extra energy he used doing it.

Your theory implies that using that extra energy to open up an extra length would hurt his chances.

I also think that having extra natural speed and using it is way more valuable on dirt than turf because all the horses are tired at the end of dirt races. It's tougher to close down a horse that's in front of you when you are already tired, even if you are a little less tired than him.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-13-2018, 10:54 AM   #97
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Why are we handicapping a dirt race in a thread about turf racing?
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-14-2018, 10:18 AM   #98
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,468
Because I am an idiot!

How about we look at GP R11 Saturday - turf stake, TF figs available for it.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-14-2018, 12:03 PM   #99
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Thumbs up Let's see how we use the ideas on real life.

let's take a shot at the G2 Fort Lauderdale Stakes, R11 Gulfstream Saturday...

looks like a whopper

Honest Pace projection, and field of 14. Good race to try your turf pace stuff.


http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...8/summary.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Why are we handicapping a dirt race in a thread about turf racing?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post

How about we look at GP R11 Saturday - turf stake, TF figs available for it.
Interested in the TFUS projection and figures.
I don't remember my log-in from my PC for this device today, but if it is a race-of-the-day race, would enjoy discussion, and contribution.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

Last edited by Robert Fischer; 12-14-2018 at 12:06 PM.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-15-2018, 09:29 AM   #100
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
early thoughts pending replays, scratches

Looks wide open to me. Solid, but not 'dominant' contenders. Trips will be important today. Tough race for me to lean-down from a spread....

Whatta you think??



- ensures pace, 'last time was the time' (and by 'last time' I mean Saratoga)

Feels like an over-matched 'reach'. Brazil is outside my circle of competence, so I do not know with much certainty.

Form seems pretty straight forward overall (last race may have gotten a good setup), but figures to be slightly over-bet, due to his connections. Have to reluctantly include.

Morning line is awfully low for this one. Interesting long shot.

We should know who he is by now.

Tactics will be interesting. Exploited the off going recently, but the pace may be more testing here.

Decent horse and may be fair price underneath.

Threat to hit the board.

Have to watch replays, but looks over-matched.

Last time was probably the time (for superfecta players??). Have to watch his bcmile. Probably a bum who will be overbet for his BC form, but worth some replay booth time.

over-matched

over-matched

over-matched

looks like a decent horse. Posted way out wide. Wonder if they will scratch or take a shot stalking 3-wide?
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-15-2018, 10:22 AM   #101
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Why are we handicapping a dirt race in a thread about turf racing?
Because the principles governing efficiency in energy distribution apply to all surfaces, all distances, all species, all moving objects, including cars. The laws of physics apply to everything.
The related side issue that has come up is how the few "apparent" exceptions can be explained by referring to other variables, such as how the concept of momentum and variations in comfort pace zones allows for dirt sprints to seem to vary from efficient even energy distribution as seen more clearly in turf routes.

The central issue on this thread remains efficient energy distribution and how other factors influence it under different circumstances - surface, distance. This is the aspect that Class and myself are discussing here.

If we seem to be going off on a tangent, though still related, it can be moved to it's own thread. Depends on how limited the parameters of the discussion should be. Either way is fine with me.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-15-2018, 10:49 AM   #102
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Because the principles governing efficiency in energy distribution apply to all surfaces, all distances, all species, all moving objects, including cars. The laws of physics apply to everything.
The related side issue that has come up is how the few "apparent" exceptions can be explained by referring to other variables, such as how the concept of momentum and variations in comfort pace zones allows for dirt sprints to seem to vary from efficient even energy distribution as seen more clearly in turf routes.

The central issue on this thread remains efficient energy distribution and how other factors influence it under different circumstances - surface, distance. This is the aspect that Class and myself are discussing here.

If we seem to be going off on a tangent, though still related, it can be moved to it's own thread. Depends on how limited the parameters of the discussion should be. Either way is fine with me.
Why don't you just assume that all of us accept your physics explanation? It is now time to move on to applied physics and how to use it in the handicapping process. Take your shot at the proposed race and show us how to apply your knowledge.
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-15-2018, 11:11 AM   #103
elhelmete
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,731
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC View Post
Why don't you just assume that all of us accept your physics explanation? It is now time to move on to applied physics and how to use it in the handicapping process. Take your shot at the proposed race and show us how to apply your knowledge.
Yeah this has taken on Cratos-like silliness.

And what is being mis-used here is the oversimplification of "it's physics, it's always right." While that is true, what is so, so wrong about just saying it and walking away is very simple: no horse ever gets a perfectly efficient (from a physics perspective) trip in a race.

I took a race driving class (cars) and the instructors made this point over and over again. You know the geometrically perfect "line" around the track, you know your tire and suspension settings intimately, you know your gearing and engine output, etc., but one other driver makes one odd move on you and you cannot use all that physics knowledge in a 100% efficient way. He said forget about the "racing line," the line you need to know is the line to win the race.
elhelmete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-15-2018, 11:19 AM   #104
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete View Post
Yeah this has taken on Cratos-like silliness.

And what is being mis-used here is the oversimplification of "it's physics, it's always right." While that is true, what is so, so wrong about just saying it and walking away is very simple: no horse ever gets a perfectly efficient (from a physics perspective) trip in a race.

I took a race driving class (cars) and the instructors made this point over and over again. You know the geometrically perfect "line" around the track, you know your tire and suspension settings intimately, you know your gearing and engine output, etc., but one other driver makes one odd move on you and you cannot use all that physics knowledge in a 100% efficient way. He said forget about the "racing line," the line you need to know is the line to win the race.
Targeted Bullseye Post....
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-15-2018, 11:51 AM   #105
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete View Post
Yeah this has taken on Cratos-like silliness.

And what is being mis-used here is the oversimplification of "it's physics, it's always right." While that is true, what is so, so wrong about just saying it and walking away is very simple: no horse ever gets a perfectly efficient (from a physics perspective) trip in a race.

I took a race driving class (cars) and the instructors made this point over and over again. You know the geometrically perfect "line" around the track, you know your tire and suspension settings intimately, you know your gearing and engine output, etc., but one other driver makes one odd move on you and you cannot use all that physics knowledge in a 100% efficient way. He said forget about the "racing line," the line you need to know is the line to win the race.
Please go back and read my posts where I have repeatedly stated that while even distribution of energy is an advantage, there are other factors, such as gaining position to avoid getting caught wide on turns, avoiding trouble, etc, involved which sometimes makes it wise to run a race inefficiently.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:37 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.