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06-21-2019, 11:16 AM
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#961
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Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
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Is Jason Zweig any relation to Marty Zweig, highnote?
I have never read of any reference to this. Jason has been a well known figure in business journalism for many yeara, and tje lste Marty was a legendary long time investor.
Thanks.
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06-21-2019, 12:06 PM
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#962
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
Is Jason Zweig any relation to Marty Zweig, highnote?
I have never read of any reference to this. Jason has been a well known figure in business journalism for many yeara, and tje lste Marty was a legendary long time investor.
Thanks.
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I have wondered the same thing. I think he probably is not.
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06-21-2019, 12:15 PM
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#963
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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They are NOT related.
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06-21-2019, 12:26 PM
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#964
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Also, the link to the study you sent about the 4% rule is applied to the SP500. The original 4% model was used on the Value Line Arithmetic Index. Zweig writes that if you want more trades use a 3% model and if you want fewer trades use a 5% or 6% model.
He also writes that the VL is more volatile than the SP and other major markets. Because of the higher volatility it works better. The VL will rise more in bull markets and will fall further in bear markets.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
I certainly know who Marty Zweig was , but I'm not a big systems guy , so never got interested in the workings of his 4% method.
Got up to some speed on it via the miracle of the internet . This paper is quite interesting and has an actual back test thru 2015 or so , which seems to confirms my theory (underperform since the glory days) . No idea how its done since 2015 (murphy's law , probably great, just to make me look bad)
The_four_percent_rule_applied.pdf
I was looking for a recent performance study, but strangely, quite hard to come by. Do you have the numbers ?
I do respect Zweigs notion that you don't stand there like a patsy when it hits the fan.
PS Your paper with Ziemba is nicely done.
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06-21-2019, 12:32 PM
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#965
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,657
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
highnote, the stock has nothing to do with you
As for waiting for a massive bounce before stepping in, I think this might have been good advice 20 or 30 years ago , not now.
Maybe this backtests well, maybe not, but I'd feel a bit awkward sitting around rooting for the S&P to move 100 points higher so I can hit the buy key
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it really doesn't bother me that you are making me look foolish. i posted a penny stock on the way to more than tripling in value, called it the greatest stock ever, which it was while it was going up, and then the sucker crashed like so many before it. i personally sold out of the stock when i doubled may money, turns out i sold to soon, in 3 days. in most peoples world that is pretty dam good trade. but you chose to relive something that happened 3 years ago.
you can keep on posting about this nonsense as long as it makes you happy. i promise you it doesn't affect anyone's life on this board or myself. if that is what your life is all about, keep on going.
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06-21-2019, 01:05 PM
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#966
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
called it the greatest stock ever, which it was while it was going up,
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See , thats the problem.
You misled people into thinking this was a good trade when it was just a wild gamble.
There are 100's of these every day. I prefer not to lead folks down the primrose path. But thats just me
As for PA , takes one to know one !
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06-21-2019, 01:50 PM
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#967
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,657
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
See , thats the problem.
You misled people into thinking this was a good trade when it was just a wild gamble.
There are 100's of these every day. I prefer not to lead folks down the primrose path. But thats just me
As for PA , takes one to know one !
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now why didn't you just say i misled people a year ago instead of carrying on like you have? there have been plenty of other great company's like Polaroid, Digital Equipment, Lucent Technoligies, Pan American Airlines, Eastern Airlines, Trans World Airlines and many others that were considered by most to be high quality company's that are all gone but not forgotten.
listen my good pal, if you think i misled you, please accept my deepest apologies and move on with your life.
good luck
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06-22-2019, 01:13 PM
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#968
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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I predicted based on the indicators I use that the SP500 would be at 2931 by June 15 -- a 15% rise over 6 months. It closed at a new high of 2954 on Thursday, June 20 -- up over 15% in the past 5 months months. So that was a pretty good estimate based on the December 26, 2018 close.
I will stay long for the foreseeable future, but will remain cautious -- about 75% in stocks and 25% in cash because there are other indicators that are not as bullish and the big indicator on December 26 may have run its course.
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
I have been maintaining a stock market timing model for the past 5 or 10 years that was devised by Martin Zweig. Last week I got the biggest buy signal that the model gives. It also gave a couple smaller buy signals a week or so earlier.
Check back here in 6 months. I estimate that the SP will rise by at least 15% by June 15, 2019.
Last time I made this prediction I got the direction right, but it took a little longer than 6 months to hit the target.
The cyclical low of the S&P was 2351 back on December 24, 2018. If it increased by 4% from that low to 2445, that would be a buy signal. It rose 4% by December 26. That signals a lot of buying momentum.
So I'm looking at a target for the SP of at least 2811 -- up 15% from December 26's close, but more likely 2931 based on the close of January 7, 2019.
The following indicator is why I am so bullish:
On January 7, the NYSE Advancing Stocks to Declining Stocks ratio over a 10 day period was greater than 2-1. That is a huge buy signal based on momentum. It has only happened twice since 1993. It happened in March of 2009 at the bottom of the financial crisis when interest rates dropped and the Fed started QE. It happened in July 2016 when everyone thought Hillary was a lock to win the presidency -- investors saw stability in that not much would change from the Obama presidency.
There was also another strong indicator on December 26, 2018 when the NYSE Advancing volume to declining volume ratio was greater than 9-1 -- it hit 24-1. It takes a lot of buying to get to that ratio. Money is flooding into the market.
The last time the Adv/Dec vol ratio was greater than 9-1 was on January 29, 2016. July 2016. Before that it was October 5, 2015. There were a bunch of 9-1's back in late 2008 when the market was volatile. There were also a bunch of 1-9's which signaled a lot of selling. The market didn't know which way to go.
Then on March 23, 2009 the Adv vol to Dec vol ratio hit 48-1! The bull market was in full swing at that point.
The ratio was 24-1 on December 26, 2018. That's only half as strong as March of 2019, but it is the strongest and only one since election day November 7, 2016 when everyone thought Clinton would be the president.
Since Trump got elected there have been 6 or 7 days where the Declining volume exceeded the Advancing volume by a ratio of 9 to 1. This is not meant to be a political thread, but only to show that there was a lot of uncertainty during Trump's first two years in office. Not all of the uncertainty was due to him, but, nevertheless, it happened during his tenure.
However, it looks like that uncertainty has been priced into the market and now the market should do well over the next 6 months.
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06-24-2019, 12:10 AM
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#969
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Did you see on Friday that the US Manufacturing index just came in at a NINE YEAR LOW! What happened?.. ...Oh, and Gold is currently trading at $1409 as I post this. The next level of resistance will be at $1450.
However, the Stock Market will probably continue higher through the end of the 2nd quarter June 30th, propped up with the expectation of a July rate cut....We'll see.
Trump of course will continue to pat himself on the back for the Stock Market rise, making all the mindless minions think that the economy is going gangbusters, even though stocks have returned just 2% over the last 18 months.....
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06-24-2019, 12:50 AM
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#970
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Did you see on Friday that the US Manufacturing index just came in at a NINE YEAR LOW! What happened?.. ...Oh, and Gold is currently trading at $1409 as I post this. The next level of resistance will be at $1450.
However, the Stock Market will probably continue higher through the end of the 2nd quarter June 30th, propped up with the expectation of a July rate cut....We'll see.
Trump of course will continue to pat himself on the back for the Stock Market rise, making all the mindless minions think that the economy is going gangbusters, even though stocks have returned just 2% over the last 18 months.....
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Never pegged you for a wind blower...who knew?
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06-24-2019, 12:51 AM
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#971
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
See , thats the problem.
You misled people into thinking this was a good trade when it was just a wild gamble.
There are 100's of these every day. I prefer not to lead folks down the primrose path. But thats just me
As for PA , takes one to know one !
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AK...the defender of idiot penny stock traders everywhere!
Thanks for doing the valuable public service that you do.
Where would we be without you?
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06-24-2019, 08:59 AM
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#972
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Did you see on Friday that the US Manufacturing index just came in at a NINE YEAR LOW! What happened?.. ...Oh, and Gold is currently trading at $1409 as I post this. The next level of resistance will be at $1450.
However, the Stock Market will probably continue higher through the end of the 2nd quarter June 30th, propped up with the expectation of a July rate cut....We'll see.
Trump of course will continue to pat himself on the back for the Stock Market rise, making all the mindless minions think that the economy is going gangbusters, even though stocks have returned just 2% over the last 18 months.....
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First Quarter GDP was up 3.1%. Don't mistake the stock market for the economy as a whole.
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06-24-2019, 09:27 AM
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#973
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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The stock market of course is a function of the economy. But it's not a perfect predictor. An old saying is the market has predicted 5 of the last 2 recessions.
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06-25-2019, 04:16 PM
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#974
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
AK...the defender of idiot penny stock traders everywhere!
Thanks for doing the valuable public service that you do.
Where would we be without you?
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Same place you are now.
My assistance does not predict anyone will benefit.
In fact, I'm sure few do, as stupid is epidemic.
But thanks for asking .
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06-28-2019, 04:09 PM
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#975
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
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S&P new all-time high? Not quite I guess.but close....Interesting...
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 06-28-2019 at 04:11 PM.
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