Dr. Z's Beat The Racetrack -- republished

[highnote]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I think we'll have to politely agree to disagree on this one. IMO...when the wager depends entirely upon the spotting of "inefficiencies" in the mutuel pools, and the majority of the mutuel pool is comprised of money that is wagered AFTER any meaningful "investigative" calculations could possibly be made...then this is a "big deal" indeed.

People haven't stopped betting the lotto either. Can we draw a meaningful conclusion from THAT?

I assume you bet when you think you have an edge. If you actually have an edge then the pools are inefficient.

Occasionally, people do find inefficiencies in some lotto games, but that is rare. So put those in a separate category.

For the vast majority of people there is no edge, or if there is an edge it would take years if not lifetimes for the inefficiencies to be proven valid. I'm talking about the case of betting unpopular numbers. When you play unpopular numbers you don't increase your chances of winning, but you do increase your chances of being the only winner and taking down the entire pot for yourself.

But put those people in a separate category, too. They're in the minority.

That leaves the vast majority of people playing with no edge. Why do they play? Because it is cheap entertainment and because of the chance of a life-changing score.

Most people don't expect to make a life-changing score in horse racing. Sometimes a person might buy a quick pick ticket on a superfecta and win $10,000, but that's hardly enough to buy a yacht and a mansion.

Most horseplayers have to deal with late odds changes, but still bet. There is a small minority of horseplayers who win despite the late odds changes.

I look at the toteboard and can get a pretty good idea of what a horse is going to pay. I told friends two days before the Belmont Stakes that the bet to make in this year's race was Justify to place and show because he was probably going to pay $3.60 to win, $3.60 to place and $3.00 to show. It happens all the time that the marquee horse takes all the win money, but people ignore place and show. You don't need a toteboard to know that.

If you are an astute handicapper and familiar with your home track you can make a pretty good estimate of how the final pool will end up. Sometimes things turn out differently than expected, but in my experience, there is order in the pools.

[acorn54]

i have to agree with thaskalos on this one. i used dr z in the 80,s, even then much of the time i found myself having to guess the final show-place pools. the author also mentioned in the book, if late money makes finding a few +ev opportunities, then take a hiatus until some one, or two weeks later. i also looked at the progression of money growth in the book. For about 1/2 the time it was in the red.(there is a graph showing this in the book)
anyway i bought it for 20 bucks in the eighties and sold it on ebay a few years ago for 65 bucks. probably the easiest profit i ever made from horseracing!

[ARAZI91]

Carey's book is available here unabridged as a free download. You only have to register with the site for access http://www.predicteform.com/Form-Cycle-Analysis

[highnote]

Originally Posted by ARAZI91

Carey's book is available here unabridged as a free download. You only have to register with the site for access http://www.predicteform.com/Form-Cycle-Analysis

This might give you the best ROI of any horse racing system!

[highnote]

Originally Posted by acorn54

i have to agree with thaskalos on this one. i used dr z in the 80,s, even then much of the time i found myself having to guess the final show-place pools. the author also mentioned in the book, if late money makes finding a few +ev opportunities, then take a hiatus until some one, or two weeks later. i also looked at the progression of money growth in the book. For about 1/2 the time it was in the red.(there is a graph showing this in the book)
anyway i bought it for 20 bucks in the eighties and sold it on ebay a few years ago for 65 bucks. probably the easiest profit i ever made from horseracing!

I have had good results using the Dr. Z system for the past 25 years. I still use it. For handicappers new to the game it is a good introduction to one area of horse race betting -- seeing the horse racing market as a financial market like the stock market.

Clearly, "Beat The Racetrack" is not for everyone. Some people raved about "Handicapping Magic" by Mike Pizzola. I never found anything useful in it. I liked his idea of fulcrum pace, but that idea appeared in Sartin's "Pace Makes the Race". After having read Quinn, Quirin, Beyer, Ziemba, Mitchell, Sartin, Brohammer, Cramer, and Bradshaw, I didn't find anything revolutionary in "Handicapping Magic".

On the other hand, I think Fotias' book "Blinkers Off" is incredible and revolutionary. However, I don't think it works as well on other people's speed figures as it did on his. Like I said earlier, his concept of Turf Decline Line (R) is impossible to apply using Beyer speed figures.

Fotias' figures were velocity based figures -- a hybrid of Sartin and Beyer.

Applying Fotias' concepts to Craig's figures might work sometimes, for example, but given that Craig's are made using a fundamentally different methodology it is a dubious proposition.

However, maybe you can take Fotias' ideas and expand them or tweak them to fit Craig's figures? You might find some interesting angles. Ideally, you'd have a database of past speed figures on which you can test Fotias' concepts. Fotias developed his concepts by researching his extensive database of figures.

I guess the point is, you have to find what works for you. If you're new to handicapping or have never read "Beat The Racetrack" it is work $25 or $30 to buy it. I've always said that one good idea is worth $50. You can find dozens of ideas in "BTR". That makes it a bargain.

[098poi]

Originally Posted by ARAZI91

Carey's book is available here unabridged as a free download. You only have to register with the site for access http://www.predicteform.com/Form-Cycle-Analysis

Thanks, saved to my computer!

[highnote]

Originally Posted by 098poi

Thanks, saved to my computer!

By the way... Fotias was a poet -- literally, he wrote poetry. He understands how to pack a lot of meaning into a few words.

I have read just about every important handicapping book written in the past 30+ years.

"Blinkers Off" is the most well-written of them all, in my opinion. When I read it I was struck by how beautifully it is written.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by ARAZI91

Carey's book is available here unabridged as a free download. You only have to register with the site for access http://www.predicteform.com/Form-Cycle-Analysis

Ironic that Dr. Z wrote the forward for that book.

[highnote]

One of my favorite quotes about Dr. Z was from his University of British Columbia colleague and friend, Bruce Fauman:

Back home, most of his UBC colleagues are of two types -- the majority, who cannot understand the depth and range of his work, and therefore resent him, and the few who can understand but not match it, and with quiet envy, resent him even more.

Dr. Ziemba is also working on a revised edition of his other classic book, "Dr. Z's Betting at the Racetrack". This book will have updates on exotic wagering, rebates, and betting exchanges.