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Old 07-06-2018, 09:50 PM   #1
highnote
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Dr. Z's Beat The Racetrack -- republished

The classic "Dr. Z's Beat The Racetrack" has been reprinted. It is only $25 plus shipping for the hardcover book on Amazon.

https://www.amazon.com/Beat-Racetrac...the+race+track
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Old 07-07-2018, 02:22 AM   #2
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If only that toteboard would hold still.
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Old 07-07-2018, 04:06 AM   #3
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If only that toteboard would hold still.
I still use the Dr. Z system. Sorry for red-boarding, but I really did have a big place bet on Justify in this year's Belmont Stakes. In fact, I told anyone that I discussed the race with after the Preakness that the bet to make was going to be Justify to place and show.

I don't remember what the expected value was to place and show, but it was definitely about the 1.14 cutoff. That means this type of bet has an expected ROI of greater than 14% over the long run. It is probably 50% or more.

Belmont Stakes Payouts

Based on a $2 bet:

Horse Odds Win Place Show

Justify 4-5 $3.60 $3.50 $2.80
Gronkowski 24-1 $13.80 $7.00
Hofburg 5-1 $3.70

Afleet Alex's 2005 Belmont Stakes comes to mind. There have been others, too. It happens regularly in the Belmont.


Afleet Alex $4.30 $3.60 $3.00
Andromeda's Hero - $8.20 $5.80
Nolan's Cat - - $7.20

Critics of the Dr. Z system often say, "Big deal. It paid $3.60 to show. There isn't much excitement in that." I say in response: If you don't find it exciting it's because you didn't bet enough. Try betting $500 or maybe $5,000 to place. You can get away with that size bet in the Belmont Stakes.

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Old 07-09-2018, 12:13 AM   #4
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It's exciting just to imagine you betting 5000 to place on a 4/5 shot.



Now I have to lie down and catch my breath
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Old 07-09-2018, 12:37 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by highnote View Post
I still use the Dr. Z system. Sorry for red-boarding, but I really did have a big place bet on Justify in this year's Belmont Stakes. In fact, I told anyone that I discussed the race with after the Preakness that the bet to make was going to be Justify to place and show.

I don't remember what the expected value was to place and show, but it was definitely about the 1.14 cutoff. That means this type of bet has an expected ROI of greater than 14% over the long run. It is probably 50% or more.

Belmont Stakes Payouts

Based on a $2 bet:

Horse Odds Win Place Show

Justify 4-5 $3.60 $3.50 $2.80
Gronkowski 24-1 $13.80 $7.00
Hofburg 5-1 $3.70

Afleet Alex's 2005 Belmont Stakes comes to mind. There have been others, too. It happens regularly in the Belmont.


Afleet Alex $4.30 $3.60 $3.00
Andromeda's Hero - $8.20 $5.80
Nolan's Cat - - $7.20

Critics of the Dr. Z system often say, "Big deal. It paid $3.60 to show. There isn't much excitement in that." I say in response: If you don't find it exciting it's because you didn't bet enough. Try betting $500 or maybe $5,000 to place. You can get away with that size bet in the Belmont Stakes.
No one laughs at a $3.60 show payoff. What the critics of the Dr. Z system REALLY say is..."How can we make meaningful pool size-driven calculations when so much of the mutuel pool money gets wagered during the last seconds of the betting period?" But if you use the system only for the super-elite races a few times a year...then I guess this issue can be sidestepped somewhat.
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Old 07-09-2018, 12:48 AM   #6
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No one laughs at a $3.60 show payoff. What the critics of the Dr. Z system REALLY say is..."How can we make meaningful pool size-driven calculations when so much of the mutuel pool money gets wagered during the last seconds of the betting period?" But if you use the system only for the super-elite races a few times a year...then I guess this issue can be sidestepped somewhat.
I seem to recall Dr. Z writing in this book or one of his other books that he is does not claim you can make a living from his system. The system is mathematically sound as far as I can tell. I have used it to turn a profit on place and show wagering. It's harder now than it used to be.

I remember going to a KY Derby back around 1994 (Sea Hero?) and there were absolutely no lines at the betting windows at 5 minutes to post. Everyone was getting set to watch the race. There was hardly any late money. You could bet with 5 minutes before the start and the pools would barely change. That all went away when companies like Youbet, Brisbet, and others came online on the internet. The money poured in at the last minute. It was hard to know what the final odds would be at the smaller tracks. The larger tracks were a little better.

Now, the late money removes any inefficiencies from the place and show pools.

However, if you get a rebate and factor that in along with some good handicapping, you can still find value in the place and show pools.

The book is written to help people understand market inefficiencies. Even back in 1984 the Dr. Z system did not work at all times at every track.

To this day it is classic book filled with terrific information. If you haven't read it you can learn a lot about racing markets and how to exploit them. This was never an easy game to beat.
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Old 07-09-2018, 01:01 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
It's exciting just to imagine you betting 5000 to place on a 4/5 shot.



Now I have to lie down and catch my breath
5000 is nothing. Hell, back in the 1890s (130 years ago) wealthy individuals were betting 200,000 per race. I don't know how much that is in today's dollars, but it would have been a lot more than 200,000 dollars is today.

Bridge jumpers bet a lot more than 5000 into minus pools.

I can vividly recall making a $2,000 show bet. It lost. My computer was sending in automatic wagers. I saw the 2,000 bet get sent in and I thought about canceling it, but I had been having a great run. It was only about 1/10 of what I had won over the previous 6 months from place and show betting. So I let go. Had I known more about what had taken place with the horse in the prior 24 hours I would not have made the bet.

The bet was on Sweet Catomine in the Santa Anita Derby. Look up the race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweet_Catomine

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ner-van-driver

She was running against colts. The night before the race she was removed from the racetrack. The van driver told the gatekeeper she was a pony. Her owner claims he did not know about it. I seem to recall she was placed in a hyperbaric chamber. It's possible the owner didn't know about it. Trainers sometimes go to great lengths to keep the owners in the dark.

I guess the bottom line is that losing a bet only hurts if you can't afford it.

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Old 07-09-2018, 01:12 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
It's exciting just to imagine you betting 5000 to place on a 4/5 shot.



Now I have to lie down and catch my breath
A laugh riot you are.
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Old 07-09-2018, 01:32 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by highnote View Post
I seem to recall Dr. Z writing in this book or one of his other books that he is does not claim you can make a living from his system. The system is mathematically sound as far as I can tell. I have used it to turn a profit on place and show wagering. It's harder now than it used to be.

I remember going to a KY Derby back around 1994 (Sea Hero?) and there were absolutely no lines at the betting windows at 5 minutes to post. Everyone was getting set to watch the race. There was hardly any late money. You could bet with 5 minutes before the start and the pools would barely change. That all went away when companies like Youbet, Brisbet, and others came online on the internet. The money poured in at the last minute. It was hard to know what the final odds would be at the smaller tracks. The larger tracks were a little better.

Now, the late money removes any inefficiencies from the place and show pools.

However, if you get a rebate and factor that in along with some good handicapping, you can still find value in the place and show pools.

The book is written to help people understand market inefficiencies. Even back in 1984 the Dr. Z system did not work at all times at every track.

To this day it is classic book filled with terrific information. If you haven't read it you can learn a lot about racing markets and how to exploit them. This was never an easy game to beat.
I've read it...and I wish it was applicable to today's game. But, since it isn't...it now sits on my bookshelf right next to Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing...where it belongs.
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Old 07-09-2018, 01:51 AM   #10
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I've read it...and I wish it was applicable to today's game. But, since it isn't...it now sits on my bookshelf right next to Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing...where it belongs.
Young people who are serious students of the game should still read it. The mathematics are timeless. There is much to be learned from the book.

Old people who have read it have probably moved on, but that doesn't mean there is nothing of value in it for young people.

Where else can you find the Generalized Reduced Gradient equations for finding the optimal place and show bets when there are more than one possible place and show bet in the same race?

If what you say is correct that the pools change too much at the last minute then how can you make a wager into any pool? They all change. Doesn't matter if you're talking win, place, show or exotics. Hell, people bet trifectas and they don't even know what the payoffs are going to be.

In my experience the late money is a factor, but it can be accounted for. There are patterns. Study the data. Find a rule or law that applies. Then test it to see if it holds.

Just because a system doesn't work for some people, doesn't mean it doesn't work. Likewise, just because something works for one person doesn't mean it will work for someone else. A person has to believe in the system and have the temperament to use it.
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Old 07-09-2018, 02:11 AM   #11
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Young people who are serious students of the game should still read it. The mathematics are timeless. There is much to be learned from the book.

Old people who have read it have probably moved on, but that doesn't mean there is nothing of value in it for young people.

Where else can you find the Generalized Reduced Gradient equations for finding the optimal place and show bets when there are more than one possible place and show bet in the same race?

If what you say is correct that the pools change too much at the last minute then how can you make a wager into any pool? They all change. Doesn't matter if you're talking win, place, show or exotics. Hell, people bet trifectas and they don't even know what the payoffs are going to be.

In my experience the late money is a factor, but it can be accounted for. There are patterns. Study the data. Find a rule or law that applies. Then test it to see if it holds.

Just because a system doesn't work for some people, doesn't mean it doesn't work. Likewise, just because something works for one person doesn't mean it will work for someone else. A person has to believe in the system and have the temperament to use it.
Look...we are all allowed to voice our opinions here...and my opinion is that Dr. Ziemba's book is a gigantic waste of time for a young player interested in today's game. And, to prove to you that I'm not "Mr. Negativity" around here...I will suggest a book that I think is a MUCH better reading choice for the interested "young person". Here it is...and it's available at a much cheaper price than "Dr. Z's" dated tome:

https://www.amazon.com/Blinkers-off-...40_&dpSrc=srch

Yes...this book has gotten negative feedback by some Amazon readers who considered it a "sales pitch" for the author's commercial speed/pace figures. But I assure all interested bystanders that the handicapping principles addressed in the book could be put to effective use with ANY type of speed/pace figures that the horseplayer chooses to use.

And...you'll be glad to know that "Dr. Z" wrote the foreword to this book...in which he gave it his highest endorsement.
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Old 07-09-2018, 02:23 AM   #12
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5000 is nothing...
Okay...
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Old 07-09-2018, 02:38 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Look...we are all allowed to voice our opinions here...and my opinion is that Dr. Ziemba's book is a gigantic waste of time for a young player interested in today's game. And, to prove to you that I'm not "Mr. Negativity" around here...I will suggest a book that I think is a MUCH better reading choice for the interested "young person". Here it is...and it's available at a much cheaper price than "Dr. Z's" dated tome:

https://www.amazon.com/Blinkers-off-...40_&dpSrc=srch

Yes...this book has gotten negative feedback by some Amazon readers who considered it a "sales pitch" for the author's commercial speed/pace figures. But I assure all interested bystanders that the handicapping principles addressed in the book could be put to effective use with ANY type of speed/pace figures that the horseplayer chooses to use.

And...you'll be glad to know that "Dr. Z" wrote the foreword to this book...in which he gave it his highest endorsement.
"Blinkers Off" is another classic. The wisdom in the book probably has not been spread widely enough in the U.S. to have a great effect on the odds. In fact, it might never be. Fotias' angles are revolutionary, but he developed them on his own speed figures. Sadly, he passed away and no one can make speed figures like he could. He spent 12-16 hours per day making those figures. Some of his angles might work on some speed figures, but I have not been able to make them work on other's figures like I could on his. Turf Decline Line (R) for example is impossible to do with Beyer speed figures.

Fotias pushed the limits of speed figure handicapping. He was a terrific person and outstanding bettor. He was the last of his kind.

However, when it comes to mathematics of gambling Dr. Z is in a league of his own -- he actually wrote the GRG formula in "Beat the Racetrack".

It would be much easier for most young people to apply the knowledge from "Blinkers Off" simply because most people are not mathematically inclined. There is value in Fotias' ideas for people who are not mathematicians. I have read both books and both have value. If you don't get math then "Dr. Z's Beat The Racetrack" is probably of little value. But to say his system does not work anymore is just plain wrong.

It would be wrong to say Fotias' system doesn't work anymore because his speed figures are no longer available.

Depending on the person, perhaps neither system works as well as they once did. Or perhaps each system still works well but it depends on the individual? In my opinion, both books contain tremendous amounts of wisdom. It is up to each individual to determine which one works best for them.

My intention was just to let people know that "Dr. Z's Beat the Racetrack" has been reprinted. The reprint is a hardback book. It is half the price of buying a used copy. The math is timeless. The nature of the betting markets may have changed, but one thing we know about markets is that inefficiencies can exist. The sharp handicapper will find the inefficiency, late money or not, because if late money was such a big deal then people would stop betting. They don't.

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Old 07-09-2018, 02:46 AM   #14
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Okay...
Relatively speaking, $5,000 is nothing. It is not even a rounding error on the national debt.

Relatively speaking, $5,000 is a lot. It is 689 hours of labor for a person making minimum wage.

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Old 07-09-2018, 02:56 AM   #15
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"Blinkers Off" is another classic. The wisdom in the book probably has not been spread widely enough in the U.S. to have a great effect on the odds. In fact, it might never be. Fotias' angles are revolutionary, but he developed them on his own speed figures. Sadly, he passed away and no one can make speed figures like he could. He spent 12-16 hours per day making those figures. Some of his angles might work on some speed figures, but I have not been able to make them work on other's figures like I could on his. Turf Decline Line (R) for example is impossible to do with Beyer speed figures.

Fotias pushed the limits of speed figure handicapping. He was a terrific person and outstanding bettor. He was the last of his kind.

However, when it comes to mathematics of gambling Dr. Z is in a league of his own -- he actually wrote the GRG formula in "Beat the Racetrack".

It would be much easier for most young people to apply the knowledge from "Blinkers Off" simply because most people are not mathematically inclined. There is value in Fotias' ideas for people who are not mathematicians. I have read both books and both have value. If you don't get math then "Dr. Z's Beat The Racetrack" is probably of little value. But to say his system does not work anymore is just plain wrong.

It would be wrong to say Fotias' system doesn't work anymore because his speed figures are no longer available.

Depending on the person, perhaps neither system works as well as they once did. Or perhaps each system still works well but it depends on the individual? In my opinion, both books contain tremendous amounts of wisdom. It is up to each individual to determine which one works best for them.

My intention was just to let people know that "Dr. Z's Beat the Racetrack" has been reprinted. The reprint is a hardback book. It is half the price of buying a used copy. The math is timeless. The nature of the betting markets may have changed, but one thing we know about markets is that inefficiencies can exist. The sharp handicapper will find the inefficiency, late money or not, because if late money was such a big deal then people would stop betting. They don't.
I think we'll have to politely agree to disagree on this one. IMO...when the wager depends entirely upon the spotting of "inefficiencies" in the mutuel pools, and the majority of the mutuel pool is comprised of money that is wagered AFTER any meaningful "investigative" calculations could possibly be made...then this is a "big deal" indeed.

People haven't stopped betting the lotto either. Can we draw a meaningful conclusion from THAT?
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