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Old 04-22-2018, 03:10 PM   #1
TheOracle
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Charting The Morning Line Favorites — creating an index!!!

Started charting the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 by number of daily wins for each month since February



Getting interested in patterns that look like an upside down v or /\

Seems whenever there are less than 4 wins on a particular day from this group you get a spike on the next racing day in some instances

Will start checking the chart on a daily basis following the MLFI or Morning Line Favorite Index for each of the N.Y. tracks
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Old 04-22-2018, 03:33 PM   #2
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Will check the Index just for Dirt since Morning Line Favorites do horribly on the Turf at least so far at Aqueduct!!!
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Old 04-22-2018, 04:56 PM   #3
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I forgot today was the last day of racing at Aqueduct!!!

On to Belmont!!!
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Old 04-22-2018, 09:13 PM   #4
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We got a nice spike today as 6 of 11 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were winners today at Aqueduct!!!

Aqueduct gave Chalk players a nice send off but that won’t continue at Belmont!!!

Chart Index for April will be in another post!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 04-22-2018 at 09:16 PM.
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Old 04-23-2018, 12:41 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
We got a nice spike today as 6 of 11 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were winners today at Aqueduct!!!

Aqueduct gave Chalk players a nice send off but that won’t continue at Belmont!!!

Chart Index for April will be in another post!!!
Will create the same type of index for Belmont I'm doubtful if there will be the same type of upward spikes like it was for Aqueduct!!!
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Old 04-23-2018, 01:47 PM   #6
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We got a nice spike today as 6 of 11 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were winners today at Aqueduct!!!

Aqueduct gave Chalk players a nice send off but that won’t continue at Belmont!!!

Chart Index for April will be in another post!!!
The final month at Aqueduct for Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 saw a nice spike on the last day of the season!!!



It was the only time there was a spike after a day with 4 wins!!!

Belmont's Index should be interesting!!!
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Old 04-23-2018, 02:15 PM   #7
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The % hit rate for that range will maintain it's rate sporadically. Like flipping a coin will ultimately produce a .5 rate with frequent streaks on either side. I wouldn't put any faith in this endeavor, it is similar to betting when a win is perceived to be "due".

I created a system based on this principle for craps; wait for a 7 to roll then place the 6 and 8, remove both when either 6 or 8 hits and then wait for 7 again and start over. Eventually a streak of 7's occurs, which is infrequent but will happen at some point, and destroys everything.
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Old 04-23-2018, 02:35 PM   #8
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The % hit rate for that range will maintain it's rate sporadically. Like flipping a coin will ultimately produce a .5 rate with frequent streaks on either side. I wouldn't put any faith in this endeavor, it is similar to betting when a win is perceived to be "due".

I created a system based on this principle for craps; wait for a 7 to roll then place the 6 and 8, remove both when either 6 or 8 hits and then wait for 7 again and start over. Eventually a streak of 7's occurs, which is infrequent but will happen at some point, and destroys everything.
Hey JJ

Yeah, it makes me want to go back to prior months and get the hit rates for each month for previous years and compare

It could be some months are just better than others for whatever reason but it would be interesting to see the prior hit rates over the course of time
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Old 04-26-2018, 10:05 AM   #9
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The final month at Aqueduct for Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 saw a nice spike on the last day of the season!!!



It was the only time there was a spike after a day with 4 wins!!!

Belmont's Index should be interesting!!!
The Belmont Index for Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as a group was not what I was expecting



There are not as many spikes as I would have hoped.

I guess since Aqueduct was only running 3 times a week at, one point, the spikes from 3 wins to 5 or 6 wins were more emphatic

However, since Belmont runs more often and with more races, the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as a group were winning at a rate of about 3 to 4 per day which didn't yield as much of a spike as I was initially hoping

I suspect it will be much the same this year but I will continue to track it for this season
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Old 04-29-2018, 11:39 AM   #10
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Started charting the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont for 2018



There were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 yesterday I suspect that number will drop significantly today!!!

I should get the upside down v shape today /\ will have to wait until Wednesday to see if there is a spike after today!!!

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    04-29-2018    1st race    1    Mar Vista Miguel (NY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    R Crichton    6/5#    Turf
2    04-29-2018    1st race    6    Shiraz (NY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    M J Maker    9/5#    Turf
3    04-29-2018    2nd race    1    Operator (KY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    W I Mott    6/5#    Dirt
4    04-29-2018    2nd race    1A    Maimo (KY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    C Summers    6/5#    Dirt
5    04-29-2018    2nd race    6    Champagne Papi (KY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    A C Adsit    5/2#    Dirt
6    04-29-2018    3rd race    1    Crimson Frost (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    L Rice    2/1#    Dirt
7    04-29-2018    3rd race    3    Caledonia Road (FL)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    R E Nicks    1/2#    Dirt
8    04-29-2018    4th race    2    Catch a Cab (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M E Casse    6/5#    Turf
9    04-29-2018    5th race    1    Consensus Thinking (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    C C Brown    9/5#    Dirt
10    04-29-2018    5th race    3    Ajnadeen (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    K P McLaughlin    2/1#    Dirt
11    04-29-2018    6th race    4    Eloweasel (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    D G Donk    9/5#    Turf
12    04-29-2018    6th race    7    First Appeal (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    L Rice    7/5#    Turf
13    04-29-2018    7th race    3    Straightaway May (FL)    Claiming    Seven Furlongs    W A Ward    2/1#    Dirt
14    04-29-2018    8th race    1    Stormy Victoria (FR)    Stakes    Six Furlongs    C Clement    7/5#    Turf
15    04-29-2018    9th race    4    La Manche (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    W I Mott    8/5#    Turf
16    04-29-2018    9th race    7    Run for Boston (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    J T Ryerson    5/2#    Turf
Let's see what this group does today!!!
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Old 05-01-2018, 11:39 AM   #11
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There is one use for this chart I can see.

Would there be a better chance for a track bias on days when few ML faves won? When form is losing, a bias could be one reason why.

At least we can investigate those days when ML faves win 0-2 races.
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Old 05-01-2018, 06:25 PM   #12
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There is one use for this chart I can see.

Would there be a better chance for a track bias on days when few ML faves won? When form is losing, a bias could be one reason why.

At least we can investigate those days when ML faves win 0-2 races.
Hey Andi

Yeah I’m just trying to see if there is a spike on a day where the Morning Line Favorites as a group had a bad day or two previously at Belmont

So I’m looking to see if I get that upside down v /\ shape for a spike or some shape close to it in a graph

On Sunday, I was thinking there would be a sharp decline since there were 6 that won from this group the day before which was Saturday

However, I was wrong, there were 5 winners from this group on Sunday so the decline from 6 was only -1 in this case 5 which is not as sharp of a decline as I expected

So I’m trying to see if there is some consistency in either going with the Morning Line Favorites or in going against them as a group based on what happened on previous racing days

Last edited by TheOracle; 05-01-2018 at 06:28 PM.
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Old 05-03-2018, 04:35 PM   #13
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Started charting the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont for 2018



There were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 yesterday I suspect that number will drop significantly today!!!

I should get the upside down v shape today /\ will have to wait until Wednesday to see if there is a spike after today!!!

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    04-29-2018    1st race    1    Mar Vista Miguel (NY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    R Crichton    6/5#    Turf
2    04-29-2018    1st race    6    Shiraz (NY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    M J Maker    9/5#    Turf
3    04-29-2018    2nd race    1    Operator (KY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    W I Mott    6/5#    Dirt
4    04-29-2018    2nd race    1A    Maimo (KY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    C Summers    6/5#    Dirt
5    04-29-2018    2nd race    6    Champagne Papi (KY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    A C Adsit    5/2#    Dirt
6    04-29-2018    3rd race    1    Crimson Frost (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    L Rice    2/1#    Dirt
7    04-29-2018    3rd race    3    Caledonia Road (FL)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    R E Nicks    1/2#    Dirt
8    04-29-2018    4th race    2    Catch a Cab (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M E Casse    6/5#    Turf
9    04-29-2018    5th race    1    Consensus Thinking (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    C C Brown    9/5#    Dirt
10    04-29-2018    5th race    3    Ajnadeen (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    K P McLaughlin    2/1#    Dirt
11    04-29-2018    6th race    4    Eloweasel (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    D G Donk    9/5#    Turf
12    04-29-2018    6th race    7    First Appeal (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    L Rice    7/5#    Turf
13    04-29-2018    7th race    3    Straightaway May (FL)    Claiming    Seven Furlongs    W A Ward    2/1#    Dirt
14    04-29-2018    8th race    1    Stormy Victoria (FR)    Stakes    Six Furlongs    C Clement    7/5#    Turf
15    04-29-2018    9th race    4    La Manche (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    W I Mott    8/5#    Turf
16    04-29-2018    9th race    7    Run for Boston (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    J T Ryerson    5/2#    Turf
Let's see what this group does today!!!

There was only a slight tick downward from last Sunday's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 but you did get 5 winners from the group



I suspect that today the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will take another step in the downward direction from among these today:

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-03-2018    1st race    5    Mae Never No (IRE)    Maiden Special Weight    Five Furlongs    W A Ward    5/2#    Dirt
2    05-03-2018    1st race    6    Give Me a Hug (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    Five Furlongs    T A Pletcher    6/5#    Dirt
3    05-03-2018    2nd race    2    Change of Venue (KY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    C C Brown    8/5#    Dirt
4    05-03-2018    2nd race    5    Brideys Kitten (KY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    T Albertrani    5/2#    Dirt
5    05-03-2018    3rd race    5    Almithmaar (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    K P McLaughlin    8/5#    Dirt
6    05-03-2018    3rd race    6    Earned Success (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    C C Brown    9/5#    Dirt
7    05-03-2018    4th race    4    No Limit Babe (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Five Furlongs    K P McLaughlin    2/1#    Turf
8    05-03-2018    5th race    1    The Cake Is a Lie (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    A Arriaga    5/2#    Dirt
9    05-03-2018    5th race    5    Loose (FL)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    2/1#    Dirt
10    05-03-2018    6th race    5    Magari (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    H J Bond    2/1#    Dirt
11    05-03-2018    6th race    6    Bowl of Kisses (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    5/2#    Dirt
12    05-03-2018    7th race    6    Conquest Bigluck E (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    G P Gullo    6/5#    Dirt
13    05-03-2018    8th race    1    Vortex Road (NY)    Allowance    One And One Eighth Miles    B N Levine    8/5#    Turf
14    05-03-2018    8th race    1A    Unbridledadventure (NY)    Allowance    One And One Eighth Miles    B N Levine    8/5#    Turf
15    05-03-2018    8th race    2    Talkn Til Midnight (NY)    Allowance    One And One Eighth Miles    L Rice    2/1#    Turf
16    05-03-2018    9th race    11    Fact Check (KY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    J Servis    2/1#    Turf
17    05-03-2018    9th race    5    Go Big Or Go Home (KY) (MTO)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    R Diodoro    8/5#    Turf
I haven't been checking today but let's see how they do!!!
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Old 05-04-2018, 08:57 AM   #14
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Once again, there were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 at Belmont yesterday so I am expecting a significant drop today!!!



I should get that downward slope today \ which might complete the upside down v shape or /\ and we look for the possible spike tomorrow!!!

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was up +1 from yesterday but I was looking for the big crash although it could come today!!!

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-04-2018    1st race    1    Social Fan (WV)    Maiden Special Weight    Five Furlongs    T A Pletcher    1/2#    Dirt
2    05-04-2018    1st race    1A    Flat Rate (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Five Furlongs    T A Pletcher    1/2#    Dirt
3    05-04-2018    2nd race    1    Regal Dame (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M J Maker    2/1#    Turf
4    05-04-2018    2nd race    4    La Piu Bella (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    D Gargan    7/5#    Turf
5    05-04-2018    2nd race    3    Salty Smile (NY) (MTO)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    R R Rodriguez    9/5#    Turf
6    05-04-2018    3rd race    6    Hyndford (KY)    Starter Allowance     One And One Sixteenth Miles    T A Pletcher    2/5#    Dirt
7    05-04-2018    4th race    1    Miko (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    L Rice    5/2#    Turf
8    05-04-2018    4th race    3    Hardly Mate (NY)    Claiming    One Mile    M J Maker    2/1#    Turf
9    05-04-2018    5th race    2    Sower (KY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    L Rice    6/5#    Dirt
10    05-04-2018    5th race    5    Posse Needed (KY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    M A Hennig    5/2#    Dirt
11    05-04-2018    6th race    7    Fiduciary Values (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    C C Brown    5/2#    Dirt
12    05-04-2018    7th race    4    Benefactor (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    M J Maker    5/2#    Turf
13    05-04-2018    8th race    1    Hard Study (KY)    Stakes    One And Three Eighth Miles    T A Pletcher    8/5#    Dirt
14    05-04-2018    9th race    4    Curtis (KY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    G P Gullo    8/5#    Dirt
15    05-04-2018    9th race    8    Toohottoevenspeak (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    R Diodoro    2/1#    Dirt
Let's see what this group does today!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 05-04-2018 at 08:59 AM.
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Old 05-05-2018, 10:26 AM   #15
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Once again, there were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 at Belmont yesterday so I am expecting a significant drop today!!!



I should get that downward slope today \ which might complete the upside down v shape or /\ and we look for the possible spike tomorrow!!!

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was up +1 from yesterday but I was looking for the big crash although it could come today!!!

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-04-2018    1st race    1    Social Fan (WV)    Maiden Special Weight    Five Furlongs    T A Pletcher    1/2#    Dirt
2    05-04-2018    1st race    1A    Flat Rate (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Five Furlongs    T A Pletcher    1/2#    Dirt
3    05-04-2018    2nd race    1    Regal Dame (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M J Maker    2/1#    Turf
4    05-04-2018    2nd race    4    La Piu Bella (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    D Gargan    7/5#    Turf
5    05-04-2018    2nd race    3    Salty Smile (NY) (MTO)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    R R Rodriguez    9/5#    Turf
6    05-04-2018    3rd race    6    Hyndford (KY)    Starter Allowance     One And One Sixteenth Miles    T A Pletcher    2/5#    Dirt
7    05-04-2018    4th race    1    Miko (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    L Rice    5/2#    Turf
8    05-04-2018    4th race    3    Hardly Mate (NY)    Claiming    One Mile    M J Maker    2/1#    Turf
9    05-04-2018    5th race    2    Sower (KY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    L Rice    6/5#    Dirt
10    05-04-2018    5th race    5    Posse Needed (KY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    M A Hennig    5/2#    Dirt
11    05-04-2018    6th race    7    Fiduciary Values (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    C C Brown    5/2#    Dirt
12    05-04-2018    7th race    4    Benefactor (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    M J Maker    5/2#    Turf
13    05-04-2018    8th race    1    Hard Study (KY)    Stakes    One And Three Eighth Miles    T A Pletcher    8/5#    Dirt
14    05-04-2018    9th race    4    Curtis (KY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    G P Gullo    8/5#    Dirt
15    05-04-2018    9th race    8    Toohottoevenspeak (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    R Diodoro    2/1#    Dirt
Let's see what this group does today!!!
There were only 3 winners yesterday from this group which is what we suspected



The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -3 from yesterday as there were only 3 winners from this group which we suspected and we now have the upside down v shape /\

5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) beat other MLFI's 2 to 1




There are 16 horses today with Morning Lines less than 3-1 there could be a spike today of 5 or more since there are 12 races and I would suspect that most if not all of the 5 would be on the Dirt from today's group:

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-05-2018    1st race    4    Summer Punch (KY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    R Diodoro    1/1#    Dirt
2    05-05-2018    1st race    5    Jump for Joy (PA)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    C Baker    8/5#    Dirt
3    05-05-2018    2nd race    5    Grand Valour (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Seven Furlongs    L Rice    2/1#    Turf
4    05-05-2018    3rd race    1    Mister Hayes (FL)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M Nevin    2/1#    Dirt
5    05-05-2018    4th race    7    Guerriere (IRE)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    C C Brown    5/2#    Turf
6    05-05-2018    4th race    8    Misericordia (GB)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    A E Goldberg    2/1#    Turf
7    05-05-2018    5th race    1    Fast Getaway (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    Six Furlongs    L Rice    5/2#    Dirt
8    05-05-2018    6th race    3    Holy Helena (ON)    Stakes    One And Three Eighth Miles    J A Jerkens    7/5#    Turf
9    05-05-2018    6th race    6    Santa Monica (GB)    Stakes    One And Three Eighth Miles    C C Brown    5/2#    Turf
10    05-05-2018    7th race    3    Big Guy Ian (KY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    8/5#    Dirt
11    05-05-2018    9th race    3    Patternrecognition (FL)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    C C Brown    8/5#    Dirt
12    05-05-2018    9th race    6    Wonderful Light (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    M Nevin    5/2#    Dirt
13    05-05-2018    10th race    8    Silverwave (FR)    Stakes    One And One Eighth Miles    C C Brown    2/1#    Turf
14    05-05-2018    11th race    2    Cloud Computing (KY)    Stakes    One Mile    C C Brown    1/1#    Dirt
15    05-05-2018    11th race    5    Tommy Macho (KY)    Stakes    One Mile    T A Pletcher    5/2#    Dirt
16    05-05-2018    12th race    11    Pence (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Seven Furlongs    L Rice    2/1#    Turf
17    05-05-2018    12th race    13    Playwright (NY) (MTO)    Maiden Claiming    Seven Furlongs    D Gargan    9/5#    Turf
Let's see what happens!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 05-05-2018 at 10:37 AM.
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