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Old 12-05-2018, 02:29 PM   #1
usfgeology
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Synthetic shippers

With the new season at Tampa Bay Downs getting into the swing of things, we're obviously getting a lot of summer shippers down to Florida for the winter meet.

We've got a lot of young horses shipping in and many of them have never run in Tampa. I've noticed there are quite a few horses that are coming down from Presque which have never raced on turf or dirt.

I've found a decent amount of research from a few years back when poly tracks were just getting installed discussing the merits of various dirt-to-poly or turf-to-poly angles, but very little regarding the opposite.

I'm keeping an eye on it this meet to formulate my own opinion regarding "poly only"-to-Tampa shippers, but is there any consensus regarding evaluating past performances on poly to a race being run on dirt/turf for the first time for a particular horse?
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Old 12-05-2018, 02:57 PM   #2
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Shippers

Hey there

I still researching Synth and Dirt and the results still remain unbiased and still the horse has to be in form to understand how we able are to understand.
Sure your going to have your odd few win on the new surface. But has the horse been in steady form or action up to this race. 1,2,3rd.
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Old 12-05-2018, 04:13 PM   #3
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One of the reasons I like betting the NoCal fairs is the abundance of horses that ship in from Golden Gate which has the Tapeta poly. Really is a horse by horse preference but using DRF it will tell you the histories the horses had on different surfaces which is valuable in these cases.
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Old 12-05-2018, 05:57 PM   #4
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I have no numbers to back this up, but anecdotally, turf to poly seems to be better than poly to turf.
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Old 12-05-2018, 06:05 PM   #5
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I agree with that assessment.
I also think poly to dirt is generally OK, but can be explosively better.
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Old 12-06-2018, 02:27 AM   #6
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IMO, in general poly and turf races have more runners that win from off the pace. When a horse switches to dirt, I look at the running style. Look for the E horses that always seem to get ran down in the stretch. A lot of people will see the form and assume that he "can't get the distance". The switch to dirt just might help carry his speed.
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Old 12-06-2018, 06:12 AM   #7
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For first time on dirt:

If a synthetic shipper's numbers are in line with today's race on the dirt, I'm most eager to wager if the shipper is not bred well for the turf. I use BRIS data, for me that's turf breeding rated less than (100).
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Old 12-06-2018, 06:15 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
IMO, in general poly and turf races have more runners that win from off the pace. When a horse switches to dirt, I look at the running style. Look for the E horses that always seem to get ran down in the stretch. A lot of people will see the form and assume that he "can't get the distance". The switch to dirt just might help carry his speed.
Agree 100%.
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Old 12-06-2018, 09:12 AM   #9
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Thanks for the thoughtful replies. I'll keep a close eye on the trends at Tampa and report back with any observations.
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Old 12-06-2018, 10:36 AM   #10
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So far at Tam, it is pretty clear surface changes mean nothing.
What counts is low speed figures, poor form, and suspiciously low odds on horses who look impossible.
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Old 12-06-2018, 01:42 PM   #11
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So far at Tam, it is pretty clear surface changes mean nothing.
What counts is low speed figures, poor form, and suspiciously low odds on horses who look impossible.
"They knew!"
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Old 12-06-2018, 02:40 PM   #12
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As both synthetic /turf surfaces don't favor front runners etc. , racing on them is somewhat similar therefore I would look for big odds on a synthetic shipper going first time on turf especially if horse has done well on synthetic.
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Old 12-06-2018, 03:40 PM   #13
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Bill or Scott Finley wrote a book about synthetic tracks. He concluded after analyzing all the types of synthetic--Tapeta, Polytrack, and Pro ride and various mixtures of them, that they are more similar to dirt than turf.

Every synthetic is different in how they run pace wise.


Turfway is faster early, and Woodbine is slower early as examples, just liked some dirt tracks are speed favoring.


So with my own experience I treat synthetic tracks like dirt tracks comparing them from my par chart.


Woodbine $10k claiming sprints 90 routes 78


Belmont $10k claiming sprints 90 routes 90


Oaklawn 90 and 78
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Old 12-06-2018, 05:03 PM   #14
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The way I understood it was the artificial surfaces theoretically would have minimum variances. I swear there are days when it seems like Golden Gate is souped up. I didn't think they could effect it much via the daily maintenance procedures, but it seems to me that GG can play awfully fast certain days, particularly at the top of the stretch.

When GG horses ship to SoCal for dirt races, I look at their races at GG just as if they were run on real dirt.
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Old 12-07-2018, 08:54 AM   #15
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So far at Tam, it is pretty clear surface changes mean nothing.
What counts is low speed figures, poor form, and suspiciously low odds on horses who look impossible.
So pretty much the usual here in Oldsmar.

Got a Presque Shipper, Diamond Lucky (4), in Race 3 today. Fits your angle of low speed and variable form. Couple that with an 11% trainer, up a couple classes, and 2 bad public workouts, and I think we've got a surefire winner.

The above was tongue in cheek. In truth - I'm including this horse in my P3's because of his consistency on the Tampa turf before shipping up to Ohio for the summer/fall and a sneaky quick workout 3 back.
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