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05-08-2018, 11:26 AM
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#16
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SG4
Fusaichi Pegasus was also 1-5.
I think it's almost certain Justify will be 1-5 or 2-5, if Good Magic doesn't come back to try him again I think the former is guaranteed
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I'm pretty sure a lot of those would be souvenir Win tickets.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-09-2018, 10:03 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,404
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bennie
I would bet the NO side and if he loses the Preakness you win the bet. If he wins the Preakness you can hedge the Belmont if you fear he will win.
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How are you going to hedge the Belmont if he wins the Preakness? Correct me if I am wrong, but considering how the Derby was run with closers not making up much ground a forwardly placed horse on a controlled pace will have a huge edge in the Belmont. If Justify wins the Preakness he is going to be 3-5 or less on Belmont day.
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05-09-2018, 10:26 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,655
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first things first---JUSTIFY is probably something like 1/5 to run in all 3 races now.
if no competition shows up to the Preakness he will be in the 1/9-1/5 range. if TENFOLD and or GREAT MAGIC show he will be anywhere from 3/5 - even money.
go to the Belmont where the race will have more factors in it, JUSTIFY will be in the 3/5- 6/5 range depending on how he performs in The Preakness and who shows up in the Belmont,
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05-09-2018, 10:31 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 360
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
first things first---JUSTIFY is probably something like 1/5 to run in all 3 races now.
if no competition shows up to the Preakness he will be in the 1/9-1/5 range. if TENFOLD and or GREAT MAGIC show he will be anywhere from 3/5 - even money.
go to the Belmont where the race will have more factors in it, JUSTIFY will be in the 3/5- 6/5 range depending on how he performs in The Preakness and who shows up in the Belmont,
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I have a hard time believing Chad Brown puts Good Magic out there for the Preakness, unless he’s facing ownership pressure. That horse was geared for Derby- just my thought
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05-09-2018, 11:04 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,456
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SG4
Fusaichi Pegasus was also 1-5.
I think it's almost certain Justify will be 1-5 or 2-5, if Good Magic doesn't come back to try him again I think the former is guaranteed
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will you be all over him at 3/5?
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05-09-2018, 01:02 PM
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#21
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hanger
I have a hard time believing Chad Brown puts Good Magic out there for the Preakness, unless he’s facing ownership pressure. That horse was geared for Derby- just my thought
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If he was geared for the Derby, then he'll still be geared two weeks later.
He never has been intended for the Belmont and won't run there and will wait for later.
So why not take a shot at the Preakness. The shorter distance is better for him.
At least that's what COULD be Chad's thinking - to me.
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05-09-2018, 01:04 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 360
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
If he was geared for the Derby, then he'll still be geared two weeks later.
He never has been intended for the Belmont and won't run there and will wait for later.
So why not take a shot at the Preakness. The shorter distance is better for him.
At least that's what could be Chad's thinking.
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True, definitely not good for Belmont, I just thought it was interesting Saturday he said probably no Preakness, then Sunday it was we will see how the next couple days go. Which led me to think owners wanna run it. Sorry didn't intend to hijack the thread.
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05-10-2018, 12:43 PM
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#23
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,816
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As we seem to discuss every year, and even more so this year with the hoof bruise or "scratches" or whatever is going on with Justify, there's almost no way this horse is a good bet at 1-5.
He'll probably still be 1-2 or less. Doesn't make it a good bet.
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05-10-2018, 12:53 PM
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#24
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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On Byk's show today, they said he went around the track fine this morning.
Everybody watching, and no one saw anything out of the ordinary.
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05-12-2018, 09:23 AM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 915
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davew
will you be all over him at 3/5?
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If Good Magic doesn't run I would absolutely be all over him at 3/5, but that would be dreaming. Good Magic going in the Preakness makes me hesitant to trust the race in general.
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05-21-2018, 01:56 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,456
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
When you parlay a 1/9 and a 1/5, and they both win...what's the "fair" payoff?
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Justify was 2/5 in Preakness, but many concerned about Preakness race....
will Justify be less than 1/2 in Belmont (if runs)?
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05-21-2018, 08:25 AM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davew
Justify was 2/5 in Preakness, but many concerned about Preakness race....
will Justify be less than 1/2 in Belmont (if runs)?
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I think he will be 1/2 in the Belmont, not less.
California Chrome was 4/5. American Pharoah was 3/4. Heck he may approach even money looking at how dominant those two were in Baltimore.
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