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01-05-2019, 08:42 AM
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#5236
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: eastern pennsylvania
Posts: 882
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I didn't see you posted it but I had it because I downloaded the entire card.
Anyway it was a terrific hit and I'm glad you shared it. I on the other hand
kept it to my selfish self
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01-05-2019, 04:04 PM
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#5237
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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SA EXOTIC BETS! TIP SHEET 01-05
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 01-05-2019 at 04:07 PM.
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01-06-2019, 04:46 AM
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#5238
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Greg, Nobody can say that you don't show any of your picks for your systems before the race. Been at this a long time, and haven't seen anyone else ever do that, well except maybe that kid from Canada. Happy New Year.
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Never really thought about it, Trace. I'm fairly certain Platinum, Exotic, and Best-Five can improve a fair to struggling horse player's bottom line-- with some effort on his part. So I post picks in advance to prove it.
It's slightly embarrassing when I whiff for the day...but that happens to every handicapper. Luckily it's not often.
Thanks Trace
-NCG
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01-07-2019, 03:58 AM
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#5239
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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MVR 01-07
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MVR SELECTIONS
3RD- SEEING'N'BELIEVING 3-1
4TH- TOMATOE BISQUE 5-1
5TH- PURPLE FLOWERS 3-1
6TH- ARAZI LIKE MOVE 4-1
7TH- TERREL'S PEN PAL 8-1
Maybe mix in some of your own picks with some of these--NCG
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01-07-2019, 08:12 PM
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#5240
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Mannnnnnnnn....didn't come close to anything today. I think 4 of 5 picks were top Platinum Power.....and Top Prime Power as well. Usually horses with top power on both win 50-60%, but at very short unprofitable odds.
I have no explanation for Radar Vision or some of the others winning today. Wasn't that long ago we were killing this track with the HOT LIST. Don't know what changed--but something did.
It's not the muddy or dry track, either.
20cent pick-6:
$6.80
$6.20
$4.20
$9.00
$6.20
$7.60
-paid $521.58 --not a winner in double figures. I'm either gonna give up on MVR--or join them in the pick-6
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01-08-2019, 12:21 AM
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#5241
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Tue MVR
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Okay...I'll give it a whirl til I get bored. Using EXOTIC BETS and other tools---we'll see what happens:
$0.20 Pick-6: 3,5,6 / 2,3,9 / 9 / 4,10 / 8,10 / 3,9
Bets: 72 Total: $14.40
...and a $1 pick-3 start r-7
$1 Pick-3:
10 / 1,10,12 / 3,9,10
Bets: 9 Total: $9
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01-08-2019, 04:04 PM
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#5242
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Just received this email from a Platinum user:
Greg,
Don’t know if you have stats for this, but your top power number @ 8-1 ML or more has shown a profit for me for over 2 years. If I could just wait for those I’d be set!
All the best,
Steve
I've mentioned previously I personally use 10-1 without handicapping--NCG
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01-08-2019, 07:26 PM
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#5243
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Just received this email from a Platinum user:
Greg,
Don’t know if you have stats for this, but your top power number @ 8-1 ML or more has shown a profit for me for over 2 years. If I could just wait for those I’d be set!
All the best,
Steve
I've mentioned previously I personally use 10-1 without handicapping--NCG
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And I use 6/1 and get more plays but a lower ROI, make it up on volume
hate to miss one of those $15 horses
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01-08-2019, 08:52 PM
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#5244
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Portland Meadows
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You can begin online wagering here on the west coast @ 3AM--that's what I usually do. This morning forgot all about it--and by noon it's too late for any early wagers. I missed playing my exotics @ MVR, but happened to notice Portland Meadows was running.
Best-Five usually does really well there (strangely--it generally sucks @ Emerald). Decided to get a data file for Portland, and play the late Pick-3 for $1. I usually use the consensus 3 picks per race.
Wish I had played the pick-5--20cents using all 3 consensus picks per race. It costs less than $50. As it was I played 3x3x3 pick-3 straight out of the consensus-- for a buck.
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*not bad for a $39.99 program...just find out where it works best--test it on paper for awhile--NCG
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01-09-2019, 02:48 AM
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#5245
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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These exactas are from a program that was never released. I just played them on paper as 3-horse $2 exacta boxes. It showed a nice profit for 6 out of the 7 days I tested it.
So naturally when I post them, they'll most likely bomb--that's the way it seems to go, usually. This is before scratches and there's bound to be some. I'll post results for your perusal afterward sometime.
There is also a spot play that looks decent--we'll see:
MVR EXACTAS
1ST - 1- 5- 7
2ND- 1- 2- 6
3RD- 1- 5- 7
4TH- 2- 6-10
5TH- 2- 6- 8
6TH- 1- 6- 11
7TH- 1-10-11
8TH- 1- 7- 10
9TH- 7- 8- 12
MVR SPOT PLAYS
1ST- FILLY RIDE 9/2
4TH- EIGHTH COMMANDMENT 7/2
7TH- ARATHORN 2-1
8TH- CANYON CREED 7/2
8TH- STU MO 4-1
9TH- RACY EMBRACE 3-1
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01-09-2019, 12:59 PM
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#5246
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: eastern pennsylvania
Posts: 882
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Greg,
I see you hit the first exacta but my question is Where or what are you using
to get these plays. I'm always tinkering and juggling things so are these plays
coming from one of your pace methods?
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01-09-2019, 07:09 PM
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#5247
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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10-1 shot TUP
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Just received this email from a Platinum user:
Greg,
Don’t know if you have stats for this, but your top power number @ 8-1 ML or more has shown a profit for me for over 2 years. If I could just wait for those I’d be set!
All the best,
Steve
I've mentioned previously I personally use 10-1 without handicapping--NCG
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Today I nailed one @ TUP. "Longshot 2" is any top power horse @ 10-1 or better. You don't have to look for one--click that button and if there is one, it's right there.
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01-09-2019, 08:01 PM
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#5248
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by timtam
Greg,
I see you hit the first exacta but my question is Where or what are you using
to get these plays. I'm always tinkering and juggling things so are these plays
coming from one of your pace methods?
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No...this is the first time I posted anything from that method--It was never completed due to financial disagreement with the programmer. I had everything else completed -- except the main spot play/method. I'm always looking for different methods that I can change up and improve....and sometimes I get lucky. Other times whatever it was ends up being a big waste of time.
-NCG
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01-11-2019, 04:16 AM
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#5249
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Santa Anita 4th MSW
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Two interesting maidens running @ SA 4th race MSW. They both are PLATINUM Top Power Longshot picks. It's rare to ever see two Longshot (top power & 10-1 +) picks from the same race.
The thing is how similar they are: Carla Gaines is trainer for JOURNAL ENTRY--while Leonard Powell trains WAZE READY. Both trainers have a dirt-to-turf positive ROI, both horses came out of the same race 4 weeks ago @ Los Al.
The running lines there are almost exactly the same. When I see even calls like that--often the following race is a strong effort. Especially going longer.
Also for you Pops/Tips fans out there...BOTH show a 4-race ODDS POP...odds dropping 4 races in a row. Look for yourself--you don't often see that pattern.
It's a good sign neither is dropping in class, as well. This one is tough to figure--If you put a gun to my head, I would have to take the Carla Gaines horse Journal Entry.
Still... I'll put down an identical win wager on both--and make a small exacta box on them.
-NCG
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01-11-2019, 08:32 PM
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#5250
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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SA 1-11
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Carla Gaines scratched all 3 of her entries today--AFTER wagering opened. Hope she had a good reason--I didn't hear why.
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