"Smart money" at Gulfstream

[thaskalos]

In today's 7th race at Gulfstream, the Summer Mischief comfortably wired the field at odds of 3-1...and left me wondering: Is there anyone here who had this horse pegged as a 3-1 probability in that race? What sort of "algorithm" might have led someone to deduce that this horse was worth that short a price?

[lamboguy]

to make a long story short. i had that horse at least 20-1. but that is why i had to give up this game

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

In today's 7th race at Gulfstream, the Summer Mischief comfortably wired the field at odds of 3-1...and left me wondering: Is there anyone here who had this horse pegged as a 3-1 probability in that race? What sort of "algorithm" might have led someone to deduce that this horse was worth that short a price?

Assuming there weren't significant scratches, that's pretty remarkable. Were the pools especially small with so few places even open due to Easter?

I see the horse shows a strong recent work, and especially given it was a layoff, I wonder if there was a big workout report on him. Still, pretty surprising.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Assuming there weren't significant scratches, that's pretty remarkable. Were the pools especially small with so few places even open due to Easter?

I see the horse shows a strong recent work, and especially given it was a layoff, I wonder if there was a big workout report on him. Still, pretty surprising.

There were no scratches in the race...and $137,233 were wagered in the win-pool.

[deelo]

Roulette paid over $20 on an $8 winner. Strange overlay.

I would imagine Paco riding probably brought his odds down as well. Tryna make that money to supplement his 4-month vacation coming up.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There were no scratches in the race...and $137,233 were wagered in the win-pool.

Thanks. I'll see if I can find out what the story was. Maybe he was a big CAW play, as their money REALLY dominates those pools, but on the surface of things that seems surprising. Clocker report is still the favorite but it's intriguing.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Thanks. I'll see if I can find out what the story was. Maybe he was a big CAW play, as their money REALLY dominates those pools, but on the surface of things that seems surprising. Clocker report is still the favorite but it's intriguing.

That was my initial reaction too...but it seems odd to me that this sort of horse would generate this level of betting interest merely on the strength of a lone workout. I could be wrong though...because workout analysis isn't a strong-suit of mine. And I also can't understand how such a horse could appeal to the algorithm-driven computer groups. Intriguing, indeed...

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

That was my initial reaction too...but it seems odd to me that this sort of horse would generate this level of betting interest merely on the strength of a lone workout. I could be wrong though...because workout analysis isn't a strong-suit of mine. And I also can't understand how such a horse could appeal to the algorithm-driven computer groups. Intriguing, indeed...

Those guys certainly use workout reports.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

Those guys certainly use workout reports.

Sure they do...but it's still a shock that this horse would go off at such a short price, IMO. This isn't the profile of the typical computer-group betdown selection...from what I have seen.

[linrom1]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

In today's 7th race at Gulfstream, the Summer Mischief comfortably wired the field at odds of 3-1...and left me wondering: Is there anyone here who had this horse pegged as a 3-1 probability in that race? What sort of "algorithm" might have led someone to deduce that this horse was worth that short a price?

That was a straightforward calculated choice.

The breeding(Into Mischief) on this horse was only second to suspect Maker's (9) horse and they paid $60k which is a fortune when compared to these types of horses running at GP now.

The KEY was Cibelli, I am not a big follower of what goes on at GP but Irad was a regular rider for this outfit, which to me was very telling. And I remember that she did very well at GP in cheap claiming races in past years on turf. I suspected her to be less than honest, but, then you look at Irad and whom does he ride for?

Lynch who was the originally scheduled to ride the horse also excels on turf compared to most jocks at GP.

Early speed, knew that jock switch to Paco would excel at.

* BULLET WORK 4/14 4f :47-2 1/18

The M/L favorite was a 3-year old vs older?

The only other horse in the race was the Get Stormy horse, but, I always think of Spatz as a Calder trainer, but he did train what used to be my favorite horse----CARTERISTA.

[Teentrifecta]

Didn't bet the race but did look at it today and he was definitely on the radar with the change to Paco.

The bullet work and class jump angle (I love) aside, it seems to me that lately whenever a jockey at Gulfstream (maybe its everywhere, don't really follow US racing) have 2 wins on the card they go into overdrive to get the third win as if their life depended on it, almost to the point I wonder if the jockeys bet amongst themselves or have some sort of pool incentive to get a triple. Was it worth 3-1? You guys (blows my mind reading through this site the advanced level of handicapping some of you operate at) would know better than I would.

Another thing I've noticed lately at Gulfstream is how underrated this Batista is on long shots to get a piece. Does anyone know if he use to ride at Charlestown or am I thinking of someone else?

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

In today's 7th race at Gulfstream, the Summer Mischief comfortably wired the field at odds of 3-1...and left me wondering: Is there anyone here who had this horse pegged as a 3-1 probability in that race? What sort of "algorithm" might have led someone to deduce that this horse was worth that short a price?

Hi Thask,

Seems a little weird to be posting in a handicapping thread, but FWIW, when I played GP and GPW turf courses in recent years, I found them to be far more speed-favoring than all but a few others. Why is this so? I'm not really sure, but their relatively fast 3F times suggested to me that that part of the track is built like a highway off-ramp. That seems to me the most persuasive reason for this horse's win. Horse's running style was E6, the others all EP, P, or S. Put it together with that workout -- maybe explains the price. Still, I would only have put this horse in gimmicks and bet the 9 to win.

Cheers,

lansdale

[deelo]

Originally Posted by Teentrifecta

Didn't bet the race but did look at it today and he was definitely on the radar with the change to Paco.

The bullet work and class jump angle (I love) aside, it seems to me that lately whenever a jockey at Gulfstream (maybe its everywhere, don't really follow US racing) have 2 wins on the card they go into overdrive to get the third win as if their life depended on it, almost to the point I wonder if the jockeys bet amongst themselves or have some sort of pool incentive to get a triple. Was it worth 3-1? You guys (blows my mind reading through this site the advanced level of handicapping some of you operate at) would know better than I would.

Another thing I've noticed lately at Gulfstream is how underrated this Batista is on long shots to get a piece. Does anyone know if he use to ride at Charlestown or am I thinking of someone else?

Different Batistas

Luis at CT, Jose at GP

Related? I have no idea

[jay68802]

Ran the race through my computer, and he does figure here. Has a win at $18,000 at this distance on the turf. Good trainer, and is the lone E running style. The other 2 that might challenge for the lead are the and . The regressed since being claimed from Drawing Away Stables and was off for a year after being claimed from Steven Miyadi. (OUCH) The has never really been fast enough early to go with him anyway. So seeing this horse go wire to wire is not a stretch.

I would not want 3-1 however, horses like this on the turf at this distance need to be at 9-2 or higher for me to play them.

[Half Smoke]

when insiders bet down an unlikely contender and the horse does well there is often a lot of talk

but the insiders lose a lot to the time too - but when they lose there isn't much talk

then there are the wannabee insiders - for example they see a loser claimed by a trainer they suspect of drug violations and then think the trainer is a miracle worker

I once saw a horse who lost his last race by 35 lengths, the previous race by 27 lengths and did not finish the race before that get claimed by one of these suspicious trainers and get bet down to 7/2

ridiculous