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04-18-2013, 09:10 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 1,467
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How would you pick a winner if your life depended on it?
This could be a fun and interesting post and I look forward to the replies. Assume your life was threatened (or even an extraterrestrial being promised to destroy planet earth) if we didn’t pick the winner in a particular upcoming race. Doesn’t matter what race or what track etc and assume it was a perfect world with no cheating, race fixing etc. The only stipulation is the winner had to be picked a day before the race.
How would we collectively use our minds to pick the winner;what things would we need to do? Would we elect the best speed guys, breeding guys, pace guys etc to come up with the winner? We may even all handicap our own winner and put them into a box andcount the ‘votes’ to get the collective winner. Or we could hire the best handicappers in the world (remember, we need to save the planet from gettingdestroyed) and just use their input. Personally,I would let the best known handicappers in the world handicap the race and submit their chosen winner. Do you think the speed guys would win out, or the pace guys, etc if certain factors were used to select this winner?? Feel free to provide any input.
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04-18-2013, 09:19 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,626
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longshot6977
This could be a fun and interesting post and I look forward to the replies. Assume your life was threatened (or even an extraterrestrial being promised to destroy planet earth) if we didn’t pick the winner in a particular upcoming race. Doesn’t matter what race or what track etc and assume it was a perfect world with no cheating, race fixing etc. The only stipulation is the winner had to be picked a day before the race.
How would we collectively use our minds to pick the winner;what things would we need to do? Would we elect the best speed guys, breeding guys, pace guys etc to come up with the winner? We may even all handicap our own winner and put them into a box andcount the ‘votes’ to get the collective winner. Or we could hire the best handicappers in the world (remember, we need to save the planet from gettingdestroyed) and just use their input. Personally,I would let the best known handicappers in the world handicap the race and submit their chosen winner. Do you think the speed guys would win out, or the pace guys, etc if certain factors were used to select this winner?? Feel free to provide any input.
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Fix the race.
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04-18-2013, 09:20 AM
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#3
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,270
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I'm sorry, but this is a ridiculous waste of time in my opinion
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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04-18-2013, 09:45 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 441
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The "best known handicappers in the world" pick overlays - not winners. Bet on the favorite. Betting pools are good at picking winners but terrible at picking overlays.
An alternative is to buy several large win tickets on the horse that you want to win, one for each jockey in the race. You can figure out the rest. Have you ever seen a boat race?
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04-18-2013, 09:51 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 297
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[QUOTE=Magister Ludi] The "best known handicappers in the world" pick overlays - not winners. Bet on the favorite. Betting pools are good at picking winners but terrible at picking overlays. [QUOTE]
Damn you think well. Seriously.
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04-18-2013, 10:29 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
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Easy. Buy a ticket on every horse in a race and hope the race isn't cancelled.
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04-18-2013, 11:45 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Actually this is not too farfetched. Expressbet is running a promotion with the lottery type winner (picked by random amongst the participants) getting to bet $50,000 to win in the Preakness.
You can't pocket the $50,000. You must bet it on one horse to win. Talk about pressure. I've never made a bet over $100 in my life. Should I win the contest to pick, I'm only looking at the first 3 favorites to make my selection.
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04-18-2013, 11:59 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: 1 hr away from Belmont
Posts: 890
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I would start with making funeral arrangements first.
__________________
This is not gambling. This is just taking advantage of an extraordinary business opportunity. Jay Trotter
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04-18-2013, 12:04 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 729
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If the world were going to be destroyed unless I picked a winner, I'd go to Calder and talk to the jockeys there. They're good at making sure a horse wins.
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04-18-2013, 12:40 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Lecanto, Florida
Posts: 740
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Once you have your race tickets hold them in one hand
and in the other, hold on to your plane tickets.
__________________
If at first you don't succeed....don't go Sky diving!
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04-18-2013, 12:47 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 1,467
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Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor
Fix the race.
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No race fixing is allowed. Just handicapping.
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04-18-2013, 01:01 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 1,467
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyfox
Easy. Buy a ticket on every horse in a race and hope the race isn't cancelled.
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You have to submit the winner's name the day before; nothing to do with a ticket for every horse, just one winner to avoid being killed.
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04-18-2013, 01:06 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 1,467
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Magister Ludi
The "best known handicappers in the world" pick overlays - not winners. Bet on the favorite. Betting pools are good at picking winners but terrible at picking overlays.
An alternative is to buy several large win tickets on the horse that you want to win, one for each jockey in the race. You can figure out the rest. Have you ever seen a boat race?
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I agree about the best handicappers picking overlays, but the winner has to be selected the day before the race, therefore eliminating betting pools and overlay info. What would we do to actually handicap a winner the day before?
I was thinking we look at all betting angles and factors that have shown to select winners(regardless of value) that helped pick a winner.
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04-18-2013, 01:09 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Last One Standing in MI
Posts: 1,177
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I would put $2 on the horse I like the most to win and $10 to win on the rest of the field
the number of the beast
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Pace Engineer
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04-18-2013, 01:14 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Covington, Wa
Posts: 2,198
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longshot6977
I agree about the best handicappers picking overlays, but the winner has to be selected the day before the race, therefore eliminating betting pools and overlay info. What would we do to actually handicap a winner the day before?
I was thinking we look at all betting angles and factors that have shown to select winners(regardless of value) that helped pick a winner.
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IMHO your question covers too many angles. If I were you and you are serious then I would go back and check earlier PA threads. Tons of useful and not so useful information buried there. The forum "Handicappers Corner" is a good place to start. Still not sure if this is a legit quesiton. There are no "magic bullets" in handicapping regardless of your stated outcome as you proposed.
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