WHAT HAS CHANGED???

[PIC6SIX]

I started handicapping seriously in 1978 and read all the books I could. Gambler's Book Club was my best friend. I used tools like, Goldstein Report (Trainer Jockey stats), TSN Sire Stats, Trainer Angles, Speed Pace and just common sense and handicapping intuition. Now all this information is readily available for the public to see in the PPs. So i ask, what else in your opinion has changed in this game besides shorter fields that has damaged win odds?

[sonnyp]

it's not even the same game. the size of fields. the take out. the computer guys. drugs which have contributed to super trainers. owners that believe if they don't have their horses with a super trainer they cant win. the vets that treat the horses. over exposure with too many tracks racing too many races. it goes on and on and on.

[ReplayRandall]

The only good thing I can see is the advent of online horse tourneys, with a reduced vig of 10-12%, versus the track takeout.....

[GaryG]

I suppose I sound like a Luddite, but I liked it better when you found profitable angles by yourself, then kept them jealously. As Joe Takach said many years ago, physicality is the only new frontier because it is subjective.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by PIC6SIX

I started handicapping seriously in 1978 and read all the books I could. Gambler's Book Club was my best friend. I used tools like, Goldstein Report (Trainer Jockey stats), TSN Sire Stats, Trainer Angles, Speed Pace and just common sense and handicapping intuition. Now all this information is readily available for the public to see in the PPs. So i ask, what else in your opinion has changed in this game besides shorter fields that has damaged win odds?

1) Players are much smarter and/or casual players are largely gone from the game except for a few big events each year
2) Much more turf racing in an event to fill fields
3) Supertrainers, though that's not exactly a new development but you said since 1978
4) Computer players gobble up a lot of the value on anything "obvious" in the pools, and although people were talking about that 15 years ago too, it's much more blatant now with the lack of casual money to bloat the pools
5) Higher percentage of favorites winning for all the reasons listed

On the plus side:
1) Widespread simulcasting of virtually every track means you don't have to sit around waiting for one decent race but can bet everywhere
2) To a certain extent, every horseplayer has access to tools that can sharpen their handicapping and help them pick out those rare overlays
3) Horseplayers have more ways to voice complaints and help each other, to work together, or just to talk over picks and races with people all over the world, thanks to sites like this, Twitter, etc.
4) Many more betting options, ways to play, tournaments, etc.

[CheckMark]

In the world of a 16 year old handicapper I notice some things about the thoroughbred world that was different not like in 2012 when i started......

1) form prices when up high, in Canada my local racetrack (grand river raceway) the price was at in 2012 like $6.00 or $5.75. Now it’s like $8.00 or $9.00.

2) breeders cup locations: I was 12 and it didn’t hit me until 15 when I realized that the same location was happening each year (Santa Anita, Churchill, Del Mar, Keeneland)

3) Favourites: Loosing more. Winning less

4) Handicapping methods: mine have changed over the years.

That’s all I can think of. 2,4 are not really answers.

[GMB@BP]

well the price of the Canadian dollar might have something to do with the form price, and just general inflation.

[chadk66]

One thing I've come to realize over this past summer is that with the current mind set of not running for at least three weeks, horses conditioning comes into play much more than when horses were ran every 12-14 days. So that's an angle I think needs to be looked at. Some trainers obviously have no issue with this but there are certainly some that struggle with their program and keeping horses dead ass fit with three weeks or more between races.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by chadk66

One thing I've come to realize over this past summer is that with the current mind set of not running for at least three weeks, horses conditioning comes into play much more than when horses were ran every 12-14 days. So that's an angle I think needs to be looked at. Some trainers obviously have no issue with this but there are certainly some that struggle with their program and keeping horses dead ass fit with three weeks or more between races.

This is imo one of the biggest changes in the game itself, that I grew up with.
Many races seem to come down to who will fire biggest off a layoff...maybe even more so at some of the major tracks.
I would rather bet boondock downs where the horses actually run,and I can make my decisions based on their races rather than try to speculate on whats happening behind the scenes.

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by GaryG

I suppose I sound like a Luddite, but I liked it better when you found profitable angles by yourself, then kept them jealously. As Joe Takach said many years ago, physicality is the only new frontier because it is subjective.

That angle will always be profitable for those that choose to excel at it.

The only downfall... Action bets. Each card might have one (2 at the most) bets on a card with this angle. Some times you go two days with out a bet, per card. Not many have the constitution for that. Takes unreal patience.

If you have it (supreme patience) you make a profit. Period.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

That angle will always be profitable for those that choose to excel at it.

The only downfall... Action bets. Each card might have one (2 at the most) bets on a card with this angle. Some times you go two days with out a bet, per card. Not many have the constitution for that. Takes unreal patience.

If you have it (supreme patience) you make a profit. Period.

I can see some things regarding physicality, but I'm not an expert. For me, it's maybe once a week, or once every two weeks that I see something significant. I only remember two from the Saratoga meet at this moment.

Another thing that has changed is the multi-race wagers.

[metro]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

That angle will always be profitable for those that choose to excel at it.

The only downfall... Action bets. Each card might have one (2 at the most) bets on a card with this angle. Some times you go two days with out a bet, per card. Not many have the constitution for that. Takes unreal patience.

If you have it (supreme patience) you make a profit. Period.

Focusing on action bets are a good way of playing the game, problem is is all the other factors that come together when your action play comes up.....weather, post position, surface type and condition, jockey, break, trip.....etc...

Had a action bet yesterday in Saratoga's 6th, built the whole day around it....P3s, DDs, ex, tri and super. Then one of the Ortiz brothers got Pagliacci buried behind a wall of horses in the stretch.

yes, patience is a key but you better have a good temperament as well, otherwise this game will eat you alive.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I can see some things regarding physicality, but I'm not an expert. For me, it's maybe once a week, or once every two weeks that I see something significant. I only remember two from the Saratoga meet at this moment.

Another thing that has changed is the multi-race wagers.

part of the reason (other than multis being relatively new, and taking a bunch of pool action) multis came to mind from the physicality stuff, is the fact that unless you/your's are on the grounds and/or watching workouts, your physicality insight has to take place in the 1st leg of a multi race wager. The 1 significant 'negative' physicality observation of a low-priced horse that I had at Saratoga, was on A HORSE I BET! after I was two legs deep into a Pick-3


On form he was a play for me even if co-favored, and his ml was a little higher than he was likely to be, and the third betting-choice was an underlay, so I 'singled' my angle in a Pick-3. Still alive after two legs -When we get to the paddock/parade the horse looks underweight. Unusually skinny behind the saddle. His stablemate (the other favorite in the betting) looked like he had bullied my horse for the feed-tub for the past month (obv. not the case, just how striking the difference in health and muscle mass).

Probably should have adapted and thrown a few bucks keying the other chalk in something, but I had committed to singling the horse, and let it ride. You know the rest.

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I can see some things regarding physicality, but I'm not an expert. For me, it's maybe once a week, or once every two weeks that I see something significant. I only remember two from the Saratoga meet at this moment.

There was one yesterday, Rudy Rod's claimer on turf. Second off the claim IIRC, looked head and shoulders above the field on camera from paddock to gate, paid $14

He had another 2 weeks ago off the claim paid 5.70. Not a huge price, but the horse had no competition physically.

I've had 9 bets at Saratoga so far, four wins. $13.60, $5.70, $7.00 (Queen Anne, in a state bred stake eight days ago) and yesterday's $14.00. One loss was by a nose. This is the fourth week of betting Saratoga four days a week. Can't make Thursdays or Sundays. My hit rate at LA downs is similar, mostly ultra ultra ultra chalk other than one $27 winner.

This style works best where you have a lot of sore legged / bodied horses.

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Another thing that has changed is the multi-race wagers.

The downfall of many a good player. The saving grace for a few others. I never could make it work.

Just an opinion... If you can make a profit betting to win , or win- place, there's no need to jump to other pools. Winning at the Windows is hard. Greed usually punishes.

For most people this is supposed to be a fun endeavor, so nothing wrong with having fun (gimmicks) if that's the goal