Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapping Library


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 3 votes, 4.67 average.
Old 03-26-2016, 10:33 AM   #46
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
It's not a question of agreeing or disagreeing with any of the items mentioned (above), because a true tote analysis measures intentions based on the overall well being and condition of the horse (or horses). Nothing you will find in any traditional handicapping methodology will provide that information. That’s because all that printed information is based on the PAST. Anything derived from it is pure unadulterated subjective conjecture!
I don’t go against the grain of modern handicapping: I completely IGNORE it!

Every post/comment on this thread related to using the tote board is really a ridiculously over-simplification. Probably because no one realizes that the analysis I use goes well beyond looking at just the odds (which is simply a reflection of the Win pool ONLY!)

Listen, you guys. Believe what you want.
I don’t look for Winners. I look for Winning plays!
When ANY of you can duplicate post selections like this let me know:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=10&pp=15
Post #138
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=11&pp=15
Post #156 & #162
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=12&pp=15
Post #171
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...5&page=3&pp=15
Post #35 & #38
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...5&page=4&pp=15
Post #58

You can still pat each other on the back and all agree to besmirch a method that is obviously beyond your grasp. But just because the majority of players can’t do it, doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
As my tote mentor always reminds me, “You can’t argue with ignorance”. So I’ll leave it at that, and let those doubters and cynics continue to struggle trying to make ends meet.
.
.
Not getting the self congratulatory behavior here. You do things differently and it works for you. That's awesome! Isn't that and the $ satisfaction enough? I think this is the wrong crowd to be putting out the above blanket criticism simply because there is more variety of styles of play here than anywhere I've read or seen. I do pretty solid and my approach is the polar opposite of yours. I don't think trainers are complete orchestrators of outcomes, nor are jockeys, and the crowd following them around as if they were does not spell I have a good thing going. In fact using this to validate your opinion makes you more of a sheep than anybody. There are 2 things I trust:the horse and myself. Both perform in ways that are understandable and I can create a game around. All the rest are for opportunities for me to bet against. Anywhere in the country.
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-26-2016, 10:44 AM   #47
Hoofless_Wonder
broken-down horseplayer
 
Hoofless_Wonder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
It's not a question of agreeing or disagreeing with any of the items mentioned (above), because a true tote analysis measures intentions based on the overall well being and condition of the horse (or horses). Nothing you will find in any traditional handicapping methodology will provide that information. That’s because all that printed information is based on the PAST. Anything derived from it is pure unadulterated subjective conjecture!
I don’t go against the grain of modern handicapping: I completely IGNORE it!

Every post/comment on this thread related to using the tote board is really a ridiculously over-simplification. Probably because no one realizes that the analysis I use goes well beyond looking at just the odds (which is simply a reflection of the Win pool ONLY!)

Listen, you guys. Believe what you want.
I don’t look for Winners. I look for Winning plays!
When ANY of you can duplicate post selections like this let me know:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=10&pp=15
Post #138
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=11&pp=15
Post #156 & #162
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&page=12&pp=15
Post #171
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...5&page=3&pp=15
Post #35 & #38
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...5&page=4&pp=15
Post #58

You can still pat each other on the back and all agree to besmirch a method that is obviously beyond your grasp. But just because the majority of players can’t do it, doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
As my tote mentor always reminds me, “You can’t argue with ignorance”. So I’ll leave it at that, and let those doubters and cynics continue to struggle trying to make ends meet.
.
.
Nitro claims he makes a 40% ROI and his goal is to bet $200 Qs, yet his five horse keys at Sha Tin almost always include the 3-4 of the lowest priced horses. $3.40 to win and $9 Qs aren't gonna get it done, even with the formful runners of Sha Tin.

Nitro's posts often contain overtones that "most horseplayers think tote handicapping doesn't work" and/or "I win with tote handicapping, so it must be the ONLY way to handicap" - when in fact neither of these views are true. Ironically, the "besmirching" is done by Nitro himself as he poo poos traditional methods of playing the ponies.

Nitro's method of only using the tote ensure he's always betting underlays. That's okay if the goal is to win, and you still win, but perhaps combining another method or two in the mix might avoid those "no clue on that longshot placer" posts when a bomb blows up the keys.

Nitro's posts often conclude the rest of us are ignorant, and he'll leave it at that - yet he cannot resist returning to post about his triumphs, and is back posting his selections when he declared he was "taking his ball and going home" - calling into question his motives and maturity.

By restricting himself to tote "handicapping", he's not maximizing his return. Nitro should be trading bonds or blue chip stocks, as an equal amount of effort in those markets would return much more profit.....and save the rest of us his tiresome repetition about how great his method is, and how misguided the rest of us must be.....
__________________
Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
Hoofless_Wonder is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-26-2016, 11:21 AM   #48
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Kinda chuckled @ that "my tote mentor" line---

I have a "bankroll mentor"....my wife.
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-26-2016, 12:17 PM   #49
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Not getting the self congratulatory behavior here. You do things differently and it works for you. That's awesome! Isn't that and the $ satisfaction enough? I think this is the wrong crowd to be putting out the above blanket criticism simply because there is more variety of styles of play here than anywhere I've read or seen. I do pretty solid and my approach is the polar opposite of yours. I don't think trainers are complete orchestrators of outcomes, nor are jockeys, and the crowd following them around as if they were does not spell I have a good thing going. In fact using this to validate your opinion makes you more of a sheep than anybody. There are 2 things I trust:the horse and myself. Both perform in ways that are understandable and I can create a game around. All the rest are for opportunities for me to bet against. Anywhere in the country.
Hey look when those who don’t have a clue about using the tote board stop their incessant ridicule of something they know nothing about, then I will also refrain from posting comments that support my game. It’s unfortunate that so many like yourself don’t see the forest from the trees when it comes to those who are in control every aspect of the horses under their care.
Surely you don’t believe
A) The horses put themselves into various racing events.
B) Search for food and water themselves when its time to eat
C) Decide on when its time to get some exercise in preparation for the next race
D) The horses know how to administer therapeutic treatment for any ailment they might have.
E) That they bet on themselves because they know they’re in top condition.
Etc., Etc....
My posted opinions are based on facts and actual results (some that I’ve posted). If that seems sheepish in your eyes then I’m afraid you probably also believe that the betting population is composed of everyone except the connections. I know differently.
.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-26-2016, 01:12 PM   #50
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder
Nitro claims he makes a 40% ROI and his goal is to bet $200 Qs, yet his five horse keys at Sha Tin almost always include the 3-4 of the lowest priced horses. $3.40 to win and $9 Qs aren't gonna get it done, even with the formful runners of Sha Tin.
Funny how things are taken out of context, but I’ll just say that if your making plays that double and triple your investment then I would say its not only “gonna to get it done”, its going to allow for a few losses along the way too. (By the way apparently you haven’t been following Sha Tin very much, but I don’t blame you for wanting to sleep)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder
Nitro's posts often contain overtones that "most horseplayers think tote handicapping doesn't work" and/or "I win with tote handicapping, so it must be the ONLY way to handicap" - when in fact neither of these views are true. Ironically, the "besmirching" is done by Nitro himself as he poo poos traditional methods of playing the ponies.
Generally the only time I’ll convey that message is when I feel its high time to offer a second opinion. It’s unfortunate that I step on so many toes when doing it. I guess it’s because I know their game inside and out, but they know very little about mine.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder
Nitro's method of only using the tote ensure he's always betting underlays. That's okay if the goal is to win, and you still win, but perhaps combining another method or two in the mix might avoid those "no clue on that longshot placer" posts when a bomb blows up the keys.
Where do you come up with this stuff? Yes, of course the GOAL is to win, and occasionally a long shot off the radar will spoil things, but it’s only because the long shot among my selections didn’t fire.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder
Nitro's posts often conclude the rest of us are ignorant, and he'll leave it at that - yet he cannot resist returning to post about his triumphs, and is back posting his selections when he declared he was "taking his ball and going home" - calling into question his motives and maturity.
Again taking things out of context! I used the term “ignorant” as it pertains to tote board utilization. If you take it personally to mean more then that then what can I say?
I might also ask you sir your motive for even questioning me about returning to PA. I’m here to have some fun and spending most of my time sharing information in the Selection forum. It’s funny how few of the detractors show up over there. It might be interesting to see them back up their claims.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder
By restricting himself to tote "handicapping", he's not maximizing his return. Nitro should be trading bonds or blue chip stocks, as an equal amount of effort in those markets would return much more profit.....and save the rest of us his tiresome repetition about how great his method is, and how misguided the rest of us must be......
Friend, take it for whatever its worth. I didn’t start this thread, and I’m not going to sit idly by while some try to discuss something they know absolutely nothing about. Using the tote analysis is the EXACT OPPOSITE of being restricted. In fact, not only does it provide excellent results, but it takes me all of about 10 minutes to determine if a race is playable and which entries to play. I call that dam efficient.
.
.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-26-2016, 02:05 PM   #51
Hoofless_Wonder
broken-down horseplayer
 
Hoofless_Wonder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Funny how things are taken out of context, but I’ll just say that if your making plays that double and triple your investment then I would say its not only “gonna to get it done”, its going to allow for a few losses along the way too. (By the way apparently you haven’t been following Sha Tin very much, but I don’t blame you for wanting to sleep)
What's out of context? The results you post often have $4.00 winners, and $12 Qs. Considering you're tossing in $18 minimum to cover your nine bets and sometimes don't cash, a 40% ROI seems to be a stretch. I do stay up and follow Hong Kong closely, and don't recall you posting a summary of your entire evening's balance - not that it's required, of course. I'm not saying you're lying, but the results aren't obvious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Generally the only time I’ll convey that message is when I feel its high time to offer a second opinion. It’s unfortunate that I step on so many toes when doing it. I guess it’s because I know their game inside and out, but they know very little about mine.
Where do you come up with this stuff? Yes, of course the GOAL is to win, and occasionally a long shot off the radar will spoil things, but it’s only because the long shot among my selections didn’t fire.
You're opinion and approach are well known, and I think you're imagining that there's this overwhelming disagreement from other players that using only the tote and analyzing action is ineffective. Your posts come across as "You handicappers are idiots - just use the tote!" whether that's truly your view or not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Again taking things out of context! I used the term “ignorant” as it pertains to tote board utilization. If you take it personally to mean more then that then what can I say? I might also ask you sir your motive for even questioning me about returning to PA. I’m here to have some fun and spending most of my time sharing information in the Selection forum. It’s funny how few of the detractors show up over there. It might be interesting to see them back up their claims.
There's nothing out of context here. Post 44 in this thread was quite clearly your expressed opinion of the ignorance of players who can't win they way you claim to win, and it's a stretch to think that most non-tote players wouldn't find it insulting. My motive for questioning your return to PA is rather simple - pointing out that it's your ego on display here, and not love for educating your fellow players.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Friend, take it for whatever its worth. I didn’t start this thread, and I’m not going to sit idly by while some try to discuss something they know absolutely nothing about. Using the tote analysis is the EXACT OPPOSITE of being restricted. In fact, not only does it provide excellent results, but it takes me all of about 10 minutes to determine if a race is playable and which entries to play. I call that dam efficient.
More bragging, which is another way of saying that ironically it's you doing the back-slapping - to yourself. Again, this persecution of tote analysis doesn't exist, and you're jumping to conclusions thinking that the rest of us "know absolutely nothing" about it. The parallel to technical analysis in the markets is very clear. And if you think about that for a moment, the most successful traders don't restrict themselves to just TA - they also look at fundamentals, news flow, and many other factors when making trades.

Rendering opinions is one thing, but when they are extremely condescending , then it shouldn't surprise you to receive some backlash.
__________________
Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
Hoofless_Wonder is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2016, 04:37 PM   #52
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Instead of being so defensive--couldn't you have maturely, reasonably explained your opinion? The "modern handicapping" term was mine--not the author's.

The wack-jobs (again--my term) that go back and find thread after thread to validate themselves, only proves you care deeply about what others think of you.

Relax, get down off your cosmic handicapping box--and join us.
It's this kind of shit (calling someone a whack job) that results in perceived "defensive" behavior.

Nitro has every right to shoot back at those who have taken shots at him.

I will never understand why people here attack others that claim to be successful, especially when using methods they are unfamiliar with.
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-14-2017, 12:31 PM   #53
Bill Cullen
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
What usually preempts the effectiveness of any tote board strategy these days is that some wise guy can drop $10,000 on a horse just as it's going into the gate.
Bill Cullen is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-15-2017, 04:45 AM   #54
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
It's this kind of shit (calling someone a whack job) that results in perceived "defensive" behavior.

Nitro has every right to shoot back at those who have taken shots at him.

I will never understand why people here attack others that claim to be successful, especially when using methods they are unfamiliar with.
When a poster here claims to be wildly successful as a bettor, it's quite reasonable for us to doubt his claims...especially when he doesn't provide any substantiation for his "success", or any details about the methods that he uses. This doesn't apply just to Nitro...but to all the rest of us as well. To "doubt" isn't to ATTACK.

In Nitro's particular case...he doesn't believe that "modern handicapping" is an effective way of making money in this game...and we "modern handicappers" feel the same about "tote-board analysis". Turnabout is fair play...IMO.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-15-2017, 12:13 PM   #55
soonboomer
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
When a poster here claims to be wildly successful as a bettor, it's quite reasonable for us to doubt his claims...especially when he doesn't provide any substantiation for his "success", or any details about the methods that he uses. This doesn't apply just to Nitro...but to all the rest of us as well. To "doubt" isn't to ATTACK.

In Nitro's particular case...he doesn't believe that "modern handicapping" is an effective way of making money in this game...and we "modern handicappers" feel the same about "tote-board analysis". Turnabout is fair play...IMO.
When you list as many as 8 horses in a race and provide absolutely no input as to how you are playing them (or how anyone else should play them), you're going to attract skepticism. I know he's under no obligation to do so, but patting yourself on the back when the 5th or 6th horse you list along with some "tote board watch horse) lands in a superfecta, you are going to be a target for criticism.
soonboomer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-15-2017, 12:17 PM   #56
VigorsTheGrey
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
The only way Nitro can prove his effectiveness is for him to post his actual bets and amounts and then tally for an accurate roi....THIS he refuses to do....his approach can pretty much be duplicated by using the top 2 public choices near post time, along with other contenders as they advance up the odds line....because his method involve at least one the keys hitting the board in conjunction with any of the other top 4 public choices THIS is a common and regular occurrence...

I post alongside of him and do pretty much what he does without his sophisticated software and get much the same results, sometimes better results...At $2 wagers, the total amount to cover the combos implied in his method is $462 per race with an K1K2/ABC format....yet he also suggests that he doesn't bet every race or only when he perceives there is value in the race....and yet without informing us of his actual bets, he will post the extremely annoying "All of that one" as if to imply that he bet and scored on all the exotics.

I offereed a challenge awhile ago for some of us to post our K1K2/ABC selections along side his under his "hit the board" conditions and post the results...you will see that you achieve similar results as well.....but again without recording your actual bets, all this is fantasy....
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-15-2017, 01:52 PM   #57
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
It's this kind of shit (calling someone a whack job) that results in perceived "defensive" behavior.

Nitro has every right to shoot back at those who have taken shots at him.

I will never understand why people here attack others that claim to be successful, especially when using methods they are unfamiliar with.
Damn....I didn't see this--that was pretty rough Mike
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-15-2017, 03:43 PM   #58
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
I have noticed I have a habit on here. 90% of the time when I argue with someone about betting it's because we are polar opposites in approach. But because we are polar opposites I pay attention to what they say and how they bet. Since our clash on this thread I have come to know and like Nitro and have learned more than a few things from him. I don't have his program either but apply his logic to looking at odds and action and have adopted some of the way he bets. My hit % and returns are all up. Includes now that I would have normally been dismissed pop up in exactas all the time, eliminating a lot of frustration. Anyway that's my 2 cents.

I'm not as demanding as some of you are. I don't need to know the exactitude of everything about how a person plays nor be able to add up their ROI to the cent. We all have things we don't want to share. And for me posting up every bet in real time in the midst of a busy play day is quite a task. So I don't bust another player's balls unmercifully about this!

And 1 more thing. I always do a playbook from the previous year in the winter. Usually in the dead of night. Nice to be able to chit chat about the races at 3 am because Nitro is playing Hong Kong!
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-15-2017, 05:28 PM   #59
whodoyoulike
Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
When a poster here claims to be wildly successful as a bettor, it's quite reasonable for us to doubt his claims...especially when he doesn't provide any substantiation for his "success", or any details about the methods that he uses. This doesn't apply just to Nitro...but to all the rest of us as well. To "doubt" isn't to ATTACK.

In Nitro's particular case...he doesn't believe that "modern handicapping" is an effective way of making money in this game...and we "modern handicappers" feel the same about "tote-board analysis". Turnabout is fair play...IMO.
Do you really feel one needs to do this?

It doesn't do anything for the individual unless he wants to do it. Kind of reminds me of when Traynor wanted any of the whales to divulge their algorithms.
whodoyoulike is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-16-2017, 09:39 AM   #60
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
Originally Posted by thaskalos
In Nitro's particular case...he doesn't believe that "modern handicapping" is an effective way of making money in this game...and we "modern handicappers" feel the same about "tote-board analysis". Turnabout is fair play...IMO.


Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike View Post
Do you really feel one needs to do this?

It doesn't do anything for the individual unless he wants to do it. Kind of reminds me of when Traynor wanted any of the whales to divulge their algorithms.
My thinking is that Nitro has used modern handicapping and his method of winning at the races has evolved to another method, that is profitable for him. I think this is true in almost every endeavor, imagine the scorn that Dick Fosbury was experiencing before the '68 Olympics when he shows the world how to high jump head first over the bar and sets a world and Olympic record. The old coaches didn't want to change their ways before that happened.

I remember the early days of televised poker tournaments when the old school players looked down on the 20 year-old players who became very good playing online poker. Chris Moneymaker literally took ol' Sammy Farha to school on national television with his bluffs.

Back to horse racing, I think if you persist at "your" method it can work for you with some degree of success. Whether your method is Speed, Form, Class, PACE, Fractional times, etc, OR Tote Board Analysis.
My only problem with this thread as it applies to me is, it should read: The Illogical Choice-Tote Board Handicapping... I say that because when some horse is getting unusual action and his/her PP's don't appear logical. When the "action" horse wins, it can be a head scratcher.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
FakeNameChanged is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:36 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.