Quirin figures

[bill evans]

How do you users of Quirin pace and speed figures calculate them for sprinters stretching out to a route distance with no prior route PP's ?

[cj]

Originally Posted by bill evans

How do you users of Quirin pace and speed figures calculate them for sprinters stretching out to a route distance with no prior route PP's ?

Mine aren't Quirin per se, but I based a lot of my early stuff on his work. Aren't figures made on races that have been run? So, a horse's speed and pace figures would be from that route.

If you mean is there a way to predict a horse's route speed figure based on prior sprints, I would say there is no secret formula. If there were I'd be rich by now. Figures help, as does breeding and trainer data, and a host of other things. The shape of the figures (slow early, fast late, etc.) can provide a clue. You have to be comprehensive IMO.

I lost plenty of dollars in my younger days betting big figure stretch outs and against low figure ones.

[PhantomOnTour]

The pace/speed dynamic is very important to me.
Assuming you make a 1/4m fig and you had the following horses stretching out from 6f to 1m1/16 (figs are for the 1/4m-1/2m-final)...who looks best?

a) 101-99-94
b) 94-99-101
c) 98-98-98

It depends on many things...what track we're racing on, who's riding and training these runners, their pedigree, post position, and today's expected race shape.
In other words, a case can be made for all three of them under the right circumstances.
All other things being equal, I would prefer c) 98-98-98....I like the even runner stretching out...the longer the better, actually.
But (as CJ basically stated) we don't handicap in a vacuum.
All variables must be considered.

[detective]

I made the figures for years and what I did was subtract the par time of today's race from the 6 furlong race and make a adjustment. For example in the 8th at Santa Anita Today look at # 4 Tap It in. the race on 2/4/11 he ran a 155.60 subtract that from the mile par time and adjust. His fig for that race was a 106 at pace and 98 final time. The par for his next race was 102 final time so if he can slow down a bit, the mile should be no problem. He ran third in the mile race on 3/26/11 he was competitive in the mile but still ran to fast, early. The trainer is best to look at and see what their record is with the stretch out if they show a positive ROI that helps.