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Old 03-12-2016, 03:16 AM   #136
NorCalGreg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
We've all seen horses entered back within 10 days---The fewest days I think I've seen has been three.
Some of them win--at huge prices. Being back to the races quickly can be a sign a trainer has a horse ready to win--and wants to get him out on the track as soon as possible.

Or--it could just be another trainer willing to try anything to get his horse to run, or to confuse bettors--who knows? I do know they can't be bet blind, that's for sure.

I came up with a way to screen these horses--at least for competent connections: By requiring either TRAINER OR JOCKEY win at least 20%--one or the other. That HAS to cut down on the dreamers--and leave more serious contenders.

At least it sounds good. I didn't require any odds at all--just the horse must be back in 9 days or less--and Trainer or Jockey win 20+%.

These are what I found today---we'll see how they do.

AQ
2ND- SWEET PURSUIT.... TR-23%
4TH- FRATELLO DEL NORD... TR-23%
9TH- JEREMY'S SONG....... TR-23%

GPX
1ST- AMBERJACK.......J-20%

LAUREL
8TH- ACADEMIC AFFAIR........TR-24%

PENN
5TH- POISED FOR ACTION......TR-22% -SCRATCHED-

TAMPA
5TH- MS SHORT FUSE......J-21%
6TH- THUNDERINWILLIE......J-24% $40.60 $21.20 $13.60

-NCG
Didn't have any big winners to report yesterday--so here's an update on the "HURRY BACK" spot play:

7 PLAYS and looky-here, a $40 winner! Wish I had bet!

That calls for more study--be back in a few with todays HURRY BACK qualifiers.
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Old 03-12-2016, 04:33 AM   #137
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"HURRY BACK" METHOD DAY-2

We've all seen horses entered back within 10 days---The fewest days I think I've seen has been three.
Some of them win--at huge prices. Being back to the races quickly can be a sign a trainer has a horse ready to win--and wants to get him out on the track as soon as possible.

Or--it could just be another trainer willing to try anything to get his horse to run, or to confuse bettors--who knows? I do know they can't be bet blind, that's for sure.

I came up with a way to screen these horses--at least for competent connections: By requiring either TRAINER OR JOCKEY win at least 20%--one or the other. That HAS to cut down on the dreamers--and leave more serious contenders.

At least it sounds good. I didn't require any odds at all--just the horse must be back in 9 days or less--and Trainer or Jockey win 20+%.

-AQ
4TH FIELDING GOLD TR-20%
7TH FLASH PAWS TR-29% J-20%

-CTX
3RD FLYING AGAIN T-26%

-FG
9TH CHIDING T-33%
9TH RAPID RHYTHM J-26%

-OP
9TH HOLLYWOOD ICE T-20% J-23%

-PARX
9TH HEKLA J-23%

-TPX
10TH DUKE OF VISEU J-24%

*couple notes...Wonder if having BOTH trainer & jockey 20%+ increases the "power" of this method? There are 2 horses listed, with both.

**the OP horse HOLLYWOOD ICE--is one of them with both--and that name seems very familiar--he may have stood out previously as a pace-play--he's 20-1 today

***A horse that didn't make the list--Parx 7th race Wils Reward--his trainer wins only 3%--but his jockey wins 17%--and the horse is 20-1 ML.
I always look twice when I see a top jockey riding for a trainer that rarely wins--this horse is back in 7 days--and since the ML Maker has him at 20-1 (I don't think the Parx ML Maker goes any higher than 20-1, usually)---this horse must not APPEAR very enticing--but with a top rider, and back so quickly--might be more to WILS REWARD than meets the eye.



🎲NCG
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:40 PM   #138
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Yesterday tanked. I'm going to play these out through the weekend then reevaluate.

Current Bankroll: $159.10 (-$40.90 - 64 Races)
Wager = $5 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: Minimum Odds condition removed.

Today's Selections:
CTX-4 Hugh and Me (5/1)
MVR-6 :2B: Hotspur Harriet (10/1)
GPX-2 Miss Dejavu (4/1)
GPX-3 Midterm Exam (3/1)
GPX-5 Elsenordelosciel (3/1)
LRL-3 Jacoby J (6/1)
LRL-4 Georges Folly (6/1)
LRL-5 Tracys Turn (10/1)
PEN-6 Adrift (6/1)

==================================================
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.

Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
MVR-2 With Gratitude (2/1)
PRX-9 Win Wish (6/1)

1st or 2nd with new trainer, with recent activity and a recent strong speed figure. 3/2 Min Odds Condition
AQU-1 Possetano Prince (8/1)
AQU-2 Great Lou (4/1)
AQU-3 Power Nap (6/1)
AQU-9 Gentrify (8/1)
GGX-5 Blu Jon (9/2)
GPX-7 Star Contender (15/1)
HAW-2 Striving (15/1)
LRL-5 Around We Go (8/1)
OPX-2 Mooch (3/1)
PEN-3 Start Again (9/2)
PEN-5 Gansett Bay (3/1)
PRX-7 My Son Ernie (5/2)
SAX-2 Revenue Virginius (15/1)
SUN-6 Golden Celestial (4/1)
TUP-7 Citron Kid (3/1)

Inspired by Greg, these picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.
AQU-1 Possetano Prince (8/1)
AQU-3 Power Nap (6/1)
AQU-7 Pin And Win (6/1)
AQU-8 Mewannarose (10/1)
AQU-9 Gentrify (8/1)
DED-7 Shobiz Or Bust (4/1)
FGX-8 Dukati (12/1)
GPX-2 Candys Lady (3/1)
GPX-3 Midterm Exam (3/1)
LRL-1 Ransom Paid (4/1) & Scattered Dreams (3/1)
LRL-4 Thats Cool Man (4/1)
MVR-1 Mr Sox (3/1)
MVR-8 Flashy Storm (8/1)
OPX-8 Dorodansa (6/1)
PEN-3 Start Again (9/2)
PEN-5 Gansett Bay (3/1)
SUN-9 Bouyance (6/1)
TAM-11 Destin (9/2)
TPX-5 Dave Got Even (5/1)
TPX-6 Whatawonderfulworld (7/2)
TPX-10 Jarboe (8/1)
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Old 03-12-2016, 02:16 PM   #139
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The Bris Summary---the best value in Racing---and it's free.
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Old 03-13-2016, 05:33 AM   #140
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BEST BETS

STARTING BANKROLL $1000 -AMERICAN

❇ $100 BASE BET---SQUARE ROOT OF PROFIT ADDED EACH DAY ❇

O3/12/16

LAUREL RACE 9 ROARING TIDE 6-1 ML *RAN OUT*



-$100 --CURRENT BANKROLL =$800
---------------------------------------------------------------
O3/13/16

TODAYS WAGER = $100 TO WIN




*GULFSTREAM RACE 7 ⭐ CORINTHIAN SUMMER ⭐ 20-1



NCG




*keep in mind--I'm just some guy on the internet that you don't know----watch but please DON'T BET
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Old 03-13-2016, 05:46 AM   #141
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HURRY BACK METHOD

-AQ
4TH FIELDING GOLD TR-20%
7TH FLASH PAWS TR-29% J-20%

-CTX
3RD FLYING AGAIN T-26%

-FG
9TH CHIDING T-33%
9TH RAPID RHYTHM J-26%

-OP
9TH HOLLYWOOD ICE T-20% J-23%

-PARX
9TH HEKLA J-23%

-TPX
10TH DUKE OF VISEU J-24%


--A COUPLE CLOSE--BUT NO WINNERS YESTERDAY WITH THE "HURRY BACK" METHOD--I'LL LOOK UP TODAY'S PLAYS, AND POST THEM IN A FEW MINUTES.

--SO FAR, 1 OUT OF 15--NOT LOOKING GOOD

🎲NCG[/QUOTE]
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Old 03-13-2016, 11:53 AM   #142
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Revised the Bris Summary method. Dropping the 1st or 2nd with new trainer method.

Current Bankroll: $145.50 (-$54.50 - 73 Races)
Wager = $4 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: Minimum Odds condition removed.

Today's Selections:
FGX-10 Minister of War (6/1)
GGX-7 Grand Palais (7/2)
RIL-6 At Last A Wildcat (5/1)
TAM-9 Carmens Secret (8/1)
TUP-8 Moon Crek (12/1)

==================================================
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.

Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
LAX-6 Eternity (10/1)


Inspired by Greg, these picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.


GGX-5 Wahine (10/1)
GGX-7 Grand Palais (7/2)
RIL-6 At Last A Wildcat (5/1)
SAX-5 Back Beauty (4/1)
SAX-6 Oil (8/1)
TPX-4 Sweeble (20/1)
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Old 03-14-2016, 12:16 AM   #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger
Revised the Bris Summary method. Dropping the 1st or 2nd with new trainer method.

Current Bankroll: $145.50 (-$54.50 - 73 Races)
Wager = $4 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: Minimum Odds condition removed.

Today's Selections:
FGX-10 Minister of War (6/1)
GGX-7 Grand Palais (7/2)
RIL-6 At Last A Wildcat (5/1)
TAM-9 Carmens Secret (8/1)
TUP-8 Moon Crek (12/1)

==================================================
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.

Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
LAX-6 Eternity (10/1)


Inspired by Greg, these picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.


GGX-5 Wahine (10/1)
GGX-7 Grand Palais (7/2)
RIL-6 At Last A Wildcat (5/1)
SAX-5 Back Beauty (4/1)
SAX-6 Oil (8/1)
TPX-4 Sweeble (20/1)

Maybe I should stick to the quarters. I'm now 2 for 2.
LAX-6 Eternity (10/1) 1st... 66.20

And also
FGX-10 Minister of War (6/1) 1st... 23.60
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Old 03-14-2016, 02:03 AM   #144
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Current Bankroll: $172.70 (-$27.3 - 78 Races)
Wager = $4 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: Minimum Odds condition removed.

Today's Selections:
MVR-3 Shades of Light (3/1)
WRD-9 Jonesboro Polly (6/1)

==================================================
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.

Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
MVR-2 After The Bell (9/2)


Inspired by Greg, these picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.


FGX-1 Ty Diesel (6/1)
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Old 03-14-2016, 10:17 AM   #145
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**50% Method

***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:TURF PARADISE~Race-7 -->> 1-3-4-10

The "HURRY BACK" method, horses coming back in under 10 days..is officially a bust. Started off well, with a $40 winner the first day--but that was it, really.

So it's on to another method---I run my TIPS program--then run my PACE program---when they both select the same horse, it's a play. I noticed these winning an awful lot.
These horses have multi-angles going for them, and my initial tests showed a +50% Strike Rate. Don't hold your breath waiting for big prices--these picks are obvious to most.
I'm hoping to separate the solid plays from the weaker.
That's been the pursuit of handicapper's from day one. I'm sure many have succeeded--with all the data available to programmers today--it should be doable.

This is my primitive attempt:

--FGS

2ND DEALER'S ETBAUER 7/2

8TH OVER YONDER 3-1

--MVR

1ST JOHANNA JO 4/5

8TH SAINT ARBOR 3-1

--PARX

3RD MASON'S DREAM 2-1

9TH SARATOGA ANGEL 7/2

--TUP

2ND TUCK 7/2

6TH NAOMI'S GIFT 5/2

--WRO

5TH 5 U'LL LOVE THIS CAT 7/2


🎲NCG
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Old 03-14-2016, 11:42 AM   #146
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Pace Play Best Bets 3/14

*all 1-unit WIN/ 2-units PLACE

--TUP

4TH SUPAH SPIRIT 8-1

5TH IN MOM'S HONOR 6-1

7TH IMPECCABLY 12-1

--MVR

2ND GRAB THE CASH 6-1

6TH WON FAST BULLET 6-1

--PARX

8TH ESCROW KID 10-1

*BONUS PLAY*

--WRO

2ND RACE TRIFECTA BOX , ,

have a good day

🎲NCG
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Old 03-15-2016, 12:49 AM   #147
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RESULTS - 50% METHOD--DAY #1

So it's on to another method---I run my TIPS program--then run my PACE program---when they both select the same horse, it's a play. I noticed these winning an awful lot.
These horses have multi-angles going for them, and my initial tests showed a +50% Strike Rate. Don't hold your breath waiting for big prices--these picks are obvious to most.
I'm hoping to separate the solid plays from the weaker.
That's been the pursuit of handicapper's from day one. I'm sure many have succeeded--with all the data available to programmers today--it should be doable.

This is my primitive attempt:

--FGS

2ND DEALER'S ETBAUER 7/2 XXX

8TH OVER YONDER 3-1 2ND

--MVR

1ST JOHANNA JO 4/5 $2.40

8TH SAINT ARBOR 3-1 $5.40

--PARX

3RD MASON'S DREAM 2-1 $4.80

9TH SARATOGA ANGEL 7/2 $5.60

--TUP

2ND TUCK 7/2 3RD

6TH NAOMI'S GIFT 5/2 XXX

--WRO

5TH 5 U'LL LOVE THIS CAT 7/2 2ND


*Didn't get 50% day 1---won 4 of 9 -bet $18.00 returned $18.20

So there you have it...definitive PROOF this method is PROFITABLE.
You're thinking "the method only showed a .20-CENT profit"

Let me ask you this---DID YOUR BETS MAKE 20CENTS PROFIT TODAY???

be back with tomorrow's 50% method picks

-NCG

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 03-15-2016 at 12:51 AM.
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Old 03-15-2016, 01:05 AM   #148
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*all 1-unit WIN/ 2-units PLACE

--TUP

4TH SUPAH SPIRIT 8-1

5TH IN MOM'S HONOR 6-1 $16.60 $7.00 $3.60
7TH IMPECCABLY 12-1

--MVR

2ND GRAB THE CASH 6-1

6TH WON FAST BULLET 6-1 2ND $4.80

--PARX

8TH ESCROW KID 10-1

*BONUS PLAY*

--WRO

2ND RACE TRIFECTA BOX , , RAN 2-5-3


🎲NCG
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Old 03-15-2016, 01:07 AM   #149
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Nothing from my picks today.

Current Bankroll: $162.70 (-$37.3 - 80 Races)
Wager = $5 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: Minimum Odds condition removed.

Today's Selections:
TUP-5 Northern Contract (6/1)
TUP-8 Lions Prey (15/1) & My Grandson (7/2)

==================================================
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.

Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
PRX-6 Mr. Masterpiece (7/2)


Inspired by Greg, these picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.


MVR-7 Inspired Voyage (3/1)
SUN-8 Cassy Sue (5/1)
WRD-5 Flaming Shadow (6/1)
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Old 03-15-2016, 02:56 AM   #150
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*HTW/READY TO FIRE 03-15

--Watch It Buster

Notes -- Evans 9-1 Sunland *CLAIMED FOR NOTHING ANGLE*
Activity type 7/2 ML
Activity date 03-15-2016
Track Sunland Park
Race number-6 Post position-2
Jockey -Juarez A J Jr

-Chasing Our Dreams

Notes-- 8yo NO LASIX 7-1 another Evans *CLAIMED FOR NOTHING ANGLE*
Activity type 5/2 ML
Activity date 03-15-2016
Track Sunland Park
Race number--7 Post position--5
Jockey -Medina J

--No Brody No

Notes--Serey cl --entered -wrong distance 7f -Bet Next on drop
Activity type 5/2 ML
Activity date 03-15-2016
Track Parx Racing
Race number--5 Post position--1
Jockey -McCarthy T
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