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04-16-2010, 01:50 PM
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#1
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,278
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speed duels
I constantly hear the theoretical about two pacestters going at one another that BOTH are going to run themselves ragged ,,,,,,,That is not reality and more than often ONE comes out the victor and runs away...
Each race with two earlier horses has to be evaluated independently.
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"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
Last edited by 46zilzal; 04-16-2010 at 02:04 PM.
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04-16-2010, 02:56 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,411
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we're not going to get another discussion going about class are we? why? because classy speed always leaves cheap speed in its wake? now if cheap speed suddenly jumps up and looks like classy speed after 2 years of being a cheapy. how would you try to reconcile this. track bias? magic shoes? something a little extra in the oats every day?
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04-16-2010, 03:06 PM
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#3
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,278
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bisket
we're not going to get another discussion going about class are we? why? because classy speed always leaves cheap speed in its wake? now if cheap speed suddenly jumps up and looks like classy speed after 2 years of being a cheapy. how would you try to reconcile this. track bias? magic shoes? something a little extra in the oats every day?
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Strange that word does not appear once in my post...Sure you are responding to the correct one?
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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04-16-2010, 05:33 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: MILWAUKEE
Posts: 5,285
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WOULDN'T the difference be noticed in the final time or pace time? The one that can carry the speed farther will have the better numbers, won't they?
JMHO
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Have you ever noticed that those who do not have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of always seem to know how to handle the money of those who do.
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04-16-2010, 05:34 PM
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#5
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,278
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HUSKER55
WOULDN'T the difference be noticed in the final time or pace time? The one that can carry the speed farther will have the better numbers, won't they?
JMHO
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No often the difference does not show until 3 or 4 furlongs into a race...and unless you consider pace of the race the line came from. POSITION alone will not elucidate which one will triumph from there on.
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
Last edited by 46zilzal; 04-16-2010 at 05:35 PM.
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04-16-2010, 06:46 PM
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#6
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,787
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I always look at the margins of the two I expect to be on the lead. A horse that can overcome margins of a hd or nk area better bets, generally, than one who needs to be clear by 1,2 lengths or he folds. This has been working for me since the 70's. To be going at it, they have to be next to each other.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-17-2010, 08:16 AM
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#7
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Location: massapequa park ny
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one of the two speed horses will usually have run consistently faster and further than the other and usually gets my money if the odds are not too low.
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04-17-2010, 09:33 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,411
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a horse that needs to be clear is the cheapy imop. class overcomes tough situations during a race. a cheapy looks great when things go his way, but when it doesn't they fold.
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04-17-2010, 09:44 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
I constantly hear the theoretical about two pacestters going at one another that BOTH are going to run themselves ragged ,,,,,,,That is not reality and more than often ONE comes out the victor and runs away...
Each race with two earlier horses has to be evaluated independently.
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I agree 100%. When there's 3 definitive early speed types, then you may see a duel, but it seems like with 2, one of them either rates, or breaks a step or two slow, allowing the other to clear.
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04-17-2010, 10:41 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
I constantly hear the theoretical about two pacestters going at one another that BOTH are going to run themselves ragged ,,,,,,,That is not reality and more than often ONE comes out the victor and runs away...
Each race with two earlier horses has to be evaluated independently.
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How many times do we go over the exact same territory here? Not picking on you in particular, but I see this all the time. The discussions seem to recycle themselves with an alarming regularity.
The answer to the question is that horses run better when they can relax and it's very difficult for a competitive animal to relax when another horse is running right next to him. This is the definition of "duelling," or as you put it, "two pacesetters going at one another."
Some on the forum have taken the position that it has no impact whatsoever; that the animal who is superior will put away the inferior one without any harmful effect to his performance whatsoever. On the other hand, we might take a poll of the most accomplished and experienced jockies in racing and ask them the following: You are on a speed-type animal who likes to race near or preferably, on the front. In the early go, another horse duels with you, head and head for the lead. Which of the following best describes your opinion of the effects of this scenario versus running without such duelling competition: (a) Helps my horse's chances to eventually win the race; (b) Has absolutely no effect on where my horse will finish in the race; or (c) Will hurt my horse's chances to finish well in the event.
Were such an unbiased, fair, and above-board poll to be taken, I would bet $50,000 right this minute at even odds that answer "C" will out-poll both of the other two answers.
PS. I mean both of the other two answers COMBINED>
Last edited by markgoldie; 04-17-2010 at 10:43 AM.
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04-17-2010, 11:10 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markgoldie
Were such an unbiased, fair, and above-board poll to be taken, I would bet $50,000 right this minute at even odds that answer "C" will out-poll both of the other two answers.
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I'll take that bet....but we have to use the jockeys I've lined up.
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04-17-2010, 11:17 AM
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#12
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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The predicting of speed duels is a very hard thing to do. They often don't materialize or happen when they are not suppose to. JMO
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04-17-2010, 11:40 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyfox
I'll take that bet....but we have to use the jockeys I've lined up.
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Reminds me of the old joke which goes something like this: Research scientists in a major conference have decided to replace all their laboratory rats with jockies... Seems there are some things that rat simply WON'T do.
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04-17-2010, 12:21 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markgoldie
How many times do we go over the exact same territory here? Not picking on you in particular, but I see this all the time. The discussions seem to recycle themselves with an alarming regularity.
The answer to the question is that horses run better when they can relax and it's very difficult for a competitive animal to relax when another horse is running right next to him. This is the definition of "duelling," or as you put it, "two pacesetters going at one another."
Some on the forum have taken the position that it has no impact whatsoever; that the animal who is superior will put away the inferior one without any harmful effect to his performance whatsoever. On the other hand, we might take a poll of the most accomplished and experienced jockies in racing and ask them the following: You are on a speed-type animal who likes to race near or preferably, on the front. In the early go, another horse duels with you, head and head for the lead. Which of the following best describes your opinion of the effects of this scenario versus running without such duelling competition: (a) Helps my horse's chances to eventually win the race; (b) Has absolutely no effect on where my horse will finish in the race; or (c) Will hurt my horse's chances to finish well in the event.
Were such an unbiased, fair, and above-board poll to be taken, I would bet $50,000 right this minute at even odds that answer "C" will out-poll both of the other two answers.
PS. I mean both of the other two answers COMBINED>
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well of course the winner of the dual will be weakened, but i thought this example basically meant that the two pacesetters were the only two to battle for the lead the entire race.
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04-17-2010, 12:23 PM
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#15
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,278
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There is no situation that repeats all the time only the perception that it does.
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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