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Old 05-10-2010, 06:15 PM   #31
ClassTrumpsSpeed
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal
Pace, once understood, is the KEY to understanding over 80% of all the races once standards for the particular race track have been established.
A key factor or a key HANDICAPPING factor? Most take such a one-dimensional approach to it anyway.
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Old 05-10-2010, 06:19 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClassTrumpsSpeed
A key factor or a key HANDICAPPING factor? Most take such a one-dimensional approach to it anyway.
a process that easily differentiates the true contenders: PACE.
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Old 05-10-2010, 07:37 PM   #33
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46 says pace is 80% once you have the key is what it is all about, yet I think that is a one dimensional quote, handicapping is multi-dimensional and does not warrant that statement. Pace and speed are brother and sister period.
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Old 05-10-2010, 07:43 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClassTrumpsSpeed
If he has 200 clients at $99.95 a month that's $20k a month, or almost a quarter-mil a year, all made with the approval of "everyone" on a forum where almost every other commercial venture is viewed with suspicion or skepticism. It's as if the normal internet rules or even human-behavior rules don't apply. My question is why.

Let me guess: this time (with CJ) it's different.
First off, I already said it was 150, not 200. Secondly, $99.99 a month? You are living in dreamland. I don't charge that, or even close.

As I mentioned way back in this thread, I do it because I like doing it and for the interaction. I don't doubt it causes a small decrease in payoffs when a very long priced horse with a good figure wins, but I don't think it is enough to change the big picture very much.

I put out a good product, I'm reliable, and I charge a fair price. I don't make any wild and crazy claims. I do say blindly betting my top figure with some qualifications (which I define clearly) will cut the takeout in half with no other handicapping. That also means with no handicapping you will lose and my customers know that. That really is the end of story.
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Old 05-10-2010, 08:01 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by cj
First off, I already said it was 150, not 200. Secondly, $99.99 a month? You are living in dreamland. I don't charge that, or even close.

As I mentioned way back in this thread, I do it because I like doing it and for the interaction. I don't doubt it causes a small decrease in payoffs when a very long priced horse with a good figure wins, but I don't think it is enough to change the big picture very much.

I put out a good product, I'm reliable, and I charge a fair price. I don't make any wild and crazy claims. I do say blindly betting my top figure with some qualifications (which I define clearly) will cut the takeout in half with no other handicapping. That also means with no handicapping you will lose and my customers know that. That really is the end of story.
good answer, it does take alot more than numbers to win. i saw those figures when they were on premier turf and they were pretty accurate.
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Old 05-10-2010, 08:33 PM   #36
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all made with the approval of "everyone" on a forum where almost every other commercial venture is viewed with suspicion or skepticism. It's as if the normal internet rules or even human-behavior rules don't apply. My question is why.
You might also check your premise, there are many commercial ventures that are not viewed with suspicion and skepticism by many.most.all. here. A very large number of people use some form of commercial SW or Handicapping product, be it HTR, JCapper, HSH, Equisim, a Sartin program or speed figures such as Beyer, Thorograph, Rags, CJs, BRIS, or Trainer Stats, Workout reports, Formulator, etc, Or several to many of the above. Or some of the above combined with some homebrew. Tools are tools and tools are used widely. Customers either find something useful or they don't.
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Old 05-10-2010, 09:29 PM   #37
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i personally don't care for pace figures. i think the best way to analyze pace is to get acquainted with the norms for the track you play. take into consideration the condition of the track that pace times were earned, and analyze this with times that are in the form. if you do this on a regular basis and use common handicapping sense you will get a feel for what time is fast or slow. pace has much to do with how horses interact with each other and what the jock does while riding the horse. by analyzing times and the position of the horse in relation to the leader you will get a feel if the horse will rate, always want the lead, take back etc. by doing this you may get some insight as to how a race will be run, and who may get into a suicide pace scenario etc. by looking at times instead of symbols such as e or e1 etc. you will also be able to spot horses that respond to certain pace times favorably or unfavorably. in some cases time can be predicted at a good a good enough percentage to spot a pretty good longshot. i just pace has many more aspects that a figure won't due justice to.
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Old 05-10-2010, 10:58 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by bisket
i personally don't care for pace figures. i think the best way to analyze pace is to get acquainted with the norms for the track you play. take into consideration the condition of the track that pace times were earned, and analyze this with times that are in the form. if you do this on a regular basis and use common handicapping sense you will get a feel for what time is fast or slow. .
There's nothing wrong with what you are doing.
But I'd say that pace times are pace figures.
People who make pace figures start with what you are looking at.
You've done it long enough to have an "intuitive feel" for the time data.

Last edited by Greyfox; 05-10-2010 at 11:00 PM.
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Old 05-11-2010, 12:21 AM   #39
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when i made pace numbers there were 2 ways they paid off #1 when you could predict when the pace would collapse with favorites stopping and slam the longshot plodders #2 when you could predict a horse getting a 6 or so lenth lead and the jock was smart enough to give the horse a breather the field catches up and the leader pulls away again
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Old 05-11-2010, 12:48 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by upset
when i made pace numbers there were 2 ways they paid off #1 when you could predict when the pace would collapse with favorites stopping and slam the longshot plodders #2 when you could predict a horse getting a 6 or so lenth lead and the jock was smart enough to give the horse a breather the field catches up and the leader pulls away again
Anyone who has bet more than say ten nights at Yonkers could figure out scenario #1, and scenario #2 indicates a vastly superior horse toying with its rivvals. This also shows why I said that CJ selling his numbers would kill his prices much the way Beyer's readers doing their own figures had begun to do by 1989, which is why Beyer "sold out."

Are the pools big enough to support two hundred whales using essentially the same information? That's the basic question. I'm sure if CJ used his numbers all by himself, his ROI with them would be higher. The question is by how much. One can also assume that if they weren't at least somewhat useful as a tool, he wouldn't bother making them, and few would bother buying them, let alone month after month.
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Old 05-11-2010, 01:38 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by ClassTrumpsSpeed
You're saying that the public's ROI wouldn't drag with public knowledge but it's obvious from Beyer that they did, and would with any method, beginning with the most obvious, most profitable scenarios and working their way down.
No, I'm acknowledging that the return on horses with high Beyers did go down, and saying that the way to address that is to not view the Beyers (or any other individual element) as a stand-alone tool for picking the one horse most likely to win to the exclusion of all other horses and factors.

Instead, consider a variety of weighted factors encompassing the whole race field, in order to detect and capitalize on instances where, as a result of the disproportionate wagering activity on entrants with high figures (or whatever other factor or angle may be getting excessive attention), other horses have become undervalued.

Last edited by Overlay; 05-11-2010 at 01:45 AM.
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Old 05-11-2010, 02:03 AM   #42
thaskalos
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Originally Posted by Trotman
46 says pace is 80% once you have the key is what it is all about, yet I think that is a one dimensional quote, handicapping is multi-dimensional and does not warrant that statement. Pace and speed are brother and sister period.
Pace and speed are distant cousins at best...
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Old 05-11-2010, 11:29 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClassTrumpsSpeed
Anyone who has bet more than say ten nights at Yonkers could figure out scenario #1, and scenario #2 indicates a vastly superior horse toying with its rivvals. This also shows why I said that CJ selling his numbers would kill his prices much the way Beyer's readers doing their own figures had begun to do by 1989, which is why Beyer "sold out."

Are the pools big enough to support two hundred whales using essentially the same information? That's the basic question. I'm sure if CJ used his numbers all by himself, his ROI with them would be higher. The question is by how much. One can also assume that if they weren't at least somewhat useful as a tool, he wouldn't bother making them, and few would bother buying them, let alone month after month.
Now, you are just being an ass with an obvious hidden agenda. I've already said twice it is 150, and not 200, but you keep saying the latter. You ignore the comment I had to the ridiculous price you said I charge. And now, you say all the customers I have are whales. Since I know many personally, I can assure you it is far, far less than most.

Comparing 150 mostly weekend players to Beyers in wide circulation in the DRF is probably as dumb as it gets.

Last edited by cj; 05-11-2010 at 11:30 AM.
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Old 05-11-2010, 11:53 AM   #44
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I am not a whale.
I am a little bitty fishy in a biiiiiiiiig ocean.
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Old 05-11-2010, 12:24 PM   #45
46zilzal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Pace and speed are distant cousins at best...
they are one and the same in Sartin country
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