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Old 04-23-2010, 03:13 AM   #16
Tex9Down
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Do you mean to say that you don't consider what the trainer's assistant is wearing? WOW, that is odd.
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Old 04-23-2010, 08:27 AM   #17
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Of course you have to take that in to account . You have to know if they think they're getting their picture taken. Works better with the owners though.
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Old 04-23-2010, 08:52 AM   #18
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Reminds me of a story I heard of 2 young guys at the track using complicated calculations and consistently losing. They notice an old timer cashing tickets after every race so they ask him his secret. He said I don't get all hung up on those figures. If I see the 2 horse shake his head I check it off. If the 3 horse shakes his head I check him off then I add 2 & 3 together and I play the 4 horse. They said you idiot 2 & 3 are 5! He said there you go with them figures again.
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Old 04-23-2010, 04:50 PM   #19
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Touche' shouldacoulda good one and that line speaks volumes.
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Old 04-23-2010, 04:56 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upset
Of course you have to take that in to account . You have to know if they think they're getting their picture taken. Works better with the owners though.
SOME trainers dress up all the time, OTHERS never do....I am in the winner's circle often enough to know that.
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Old 04-24-2010, 02:06 AM   #21
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I don't think complicated stats should just be discounted so easily
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Old 04-24-2010, 02:09 AM   #22
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I mean if someone showed me a stat where a trainer has pulled off 3 wins in the last 5 times he has entered a horse trying synthetics for the first time, I would have to take a closer look wouldn't I?
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Old 04-24-2010, 04:59 AM   #23
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K I S S

Here's a method that worked at MTH about 10 years ago.

My wife and I are at the paddock, its one of the early cheap claiming races
and a horse named (I believe) Onedayvincentj walks by us with his handler and winks at my wife.

The horse's iodds are 99-1 ,has awful form, virtually 0
speed, no sign of life and this is a 6fg race.

I'm forced to buy a $2.00 win ticket, and the horse comes off the pace and pays about 130.00

I guess my 2.00 destroyed the odds.

Moral.. if you do go to the paddock, don't use any sophisticated info
when one of these rare events happens.

Good ending is when the horse loses you truly have an excuse
as it came from the horse's eye...
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Old 04-24-2010, 09:03 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GARY Z
Here's a method that worked at MTH about 10 years ago.

My wife and I are at the paddock, its one of the early cheap claiming races
and a horse named (I believe) Onedayvincentj walks by us with his handler and winks at my wife.

The horse's iodds are 99-1 ,has awful form, virtually 0
speed, no sign of life and this is a 6fg race.

I'm forced to buy a $2.00 win ticket, and the horse comes off the pace and pays about 130.00

I guess my 2.00 destroyed the odds.

Moral.. if you do go to the paddock, don't use any sophisticated info
when one of these rare events happens.

Good ending is when the horse loses you truly have an excuse
as it came from the horse's eye...
that is a nice story....K.I.S.S. was a favorite saying of mine when i was coaching the j.v hockey team in my town...not sure how it pertains to handicapping.Handicapping to me is trying to decide which info is relevant and which is not.Sometimes pace might be most important...other times final speed might be better served.....sometimes trainer intent is more important than all other things....wagering is another story and i do keep it simple finding my best value is usually in the win or exacta pools with the occasional place bet....and very occasional dd
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Old 04-24-2010, 09:29 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
I mean if someone showed me a stat where a trainer has pulled off 3 wins in the last 5 times he has entered a horse trying synthetics for the first time, I would have to take a closer look wouldn't I?
Dams straight.
Short term stats pay off all the time.
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Old 04-24-2010, 11:18 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal
SOME trainers dress up all the time, OTHERS never do....I am in the winner's circle often enough to know that.
So, KISS only works when it is your KISS?

Some only dress up for a picture. Some don't even show up except for a picture. I've found that when they have 30 drunk friends near the winner's circle, they often win.

Using different information from yours isn't necessarily wrong.
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Old 04-24-2010, 04:17 PM   #27
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We used to have a trainer at FL who owed two sets of clothes - coveralls and a suit coat. We had an idea what he thought about his horse....
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Old 04-24-2010, 04:26 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
So, KISS only works when it is your KISS?

Some only dress up for a picture. Some don't even show up except for a picture. I've found that when they have 30 drunk friends near the winner's circle, they often win.

Using different information from yours isn't necessarily wrong.
Zilly has made thousands and thousands of posts where he argues otherwise.

Honestly, keeping it simple isn't bad advice...it's just that his argument is always to "keep it simple" IN ONE VERY NARROW EXACT WAY THAT I FOLLOW, WHICH IS THE ONLY WAY THAT WORKS, YOU IDIOT.

That's bad advice.

Overall though, learning to specialize on one thing and learning that facet of the game is probably the best way to go about being somewhat successful with the shortest learning curve. If that's simple, then I guess it's good.

Last edited by castaway01; 04-24-2010 at 04:29 PM.
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