Can You Still Make Money In This Game?

[TexasDolly]

Hi Dave, The numbers you posted add up to about 66 % for the first three choices if I
understand it correctly . In your earlier post your comment said the top 3 public choices won at about a 76 % rate. Is this just a typo ? And are the last set the more accurate ones ?
Thank you,
TD

[Charlie D]

You'll probably wish you'd not posted that data Dave

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Sounds like William Scott's Investing at the Racetrack. He reasoned that since one of the first three public choices wins two-thirds of all races (at the time that he was writing), if you could pick the winner out of those three in two races out of every three (without even having to consider value), you'd be assured of picking four winners out of every nine races, which (he said) would guarantee profitability.

Scott later abandoned the top three public choices requirement. See his book Total Victory at the Track. His methodology usually landed on the top three anyway, so when he found a horse outside the top three it was an overlay.

[jamey1977]

William Scott is correct. But I find these bet-down underlays losing and losing for some reason and if the horse is at overlay, for some reason, they are stronger. I can not explain it. So I always agreed with the coin flip theory. Get the odds in your favor so you will have an edge every time you play. You want to be able to get 65 to 35 on the coin-flip. Not 50-50. The crowd just bets the heck out of underlays and if one focuses on overlays only from the first 3 picks. I mean live overlays., you have to make your own line. Profits are guaranteed. Just like Dick Mitchell wrote.

[ranchwest]

To me, it seems that selecting from only the top 3 public picks is letting someone else do your handicapping.

Sunday I got on a horse that almost nobody was on. I couldn't bet it to win because there was a legit favorite in the race, so I bet it to place. Even with the odds-on favorite on top, my horse paid over $20 to place and came within a closing neck of the win.

Yeah, I know that most winners are from the top 3 or 4, but selective picks on other horses can provide a big day even if a lot of your bets are on the top 3 or 4.

Odds don't drive my selections other than from a value perspective.

[miesque]

Originally Posted by Passthehat

I dont know -- I've always found it tough to win at West Virginia's Mountaineer. Maybe it's because the indigenous bettor over there is related to the horses that are running.

So, in WVA, it's all in the family.

I just saw this post, thanks I needed a chuckle this morning as I have been stressed totally out with April 15 deadline crap fast approaching and leaving for Lexington tomorrow.

[upset]

[QUOTE=Passthehat]I dont know -- I've always found it tough to win at West Virginia's Mountaineer. Maybe it's because the indigenous bettor over there is related to the horses that are running.

So, in WVA, it's all in the family.

[/QUOTEWell then the only time the family gets togther is when theres 10 guys standing in the paddock with claiming slips in thier hand. You know theu only test the winner there. Its so cut thought if you ship in its wise to gaurd your horse in the recieving barn

[upset]

I think the best way to win is with pic 4s and pic 6. espeically all stakes and big racing days. BC superfectas derby supers and so on

[Dave Schwartz]

Someone asked for MORNING LINES.

That was morning line, not final odds.

[Dave Schwartz]

Still wrong. Only 72.6% last year across all races. (I forget hat I spend most of my time looking at non-maiden dirt which is 76%.)

2009.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st            44,392 16,036   36.1  $1.69   2.85   1.03   1.35
2nd            43,626  9,269   21.2  $1.65   1.68   0.99   1.15
3rd            43,340  6,305   14.5  $1.60   1.15   0.95   1.02
FH             83,905  7,104    8.5  $1.55   0.76   0.94   0.91
RH            147,580  4,898    3.3  $1.31   0.28   0.88   0.65

Total         362,843 43,612   12.0  $1.49   1.00   0.98