MY BIGGEST HANDICAPPING QUESTION...

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Each race, no matter if it is a maiden claimer to a grade on stake is the result of the interaction of horses, those in form, on ONE specific circumstance and a single point in their careers. Often the pace pressures of one contest do not repeat ever again.

A race is the result of that day's pace pressures and is mutually exclusive of all others. pure and simple.

Find out how the HORSE handles the pace pressure(s) and you understand how to evaluate it when the next match up confronts him/her. Each race is made of pressures that may or may not ever happen the same way again.

I'm afraid that it is just too simple to be grasped. Each result is a product of that gathering. There just isn't anything to add and subtract there.

jdl

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by Tom

I know Hastings has no jockeys, but don't they still have claimers? Class is NOT man made - classes pretty much define themselves. Overall, horses progress like a MSW-NW!,NW2......better ones can jump past a lever, slower ones drop into claimers. Generally speaking, you can bet a NW2 is better than a NW1 race and a $20k race is better than a $10K race.

Is this speed determining where horse fit in the Class structure Tom???

[upset]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

The question posed by the original poster here was WHY? While the answer is not nearly important as the acceptance of the basic principle, I do have a theory. It involves the internal speed dynamics of races. Another way of putting it might be that all 1:10 clockings for 6f are not created equal. The better the horse, the greater likelihood that he will be able to speed up and slow down during the course of the event as tactical concerns of the jockey dictate. And so an animal who can go 1:10 while loose on the lead and in his preferred stride pattern may be buried in a 1:10 event by horses who out-sprint him early and never allow him to get into a comfort zone. A middle-move horse who can blow by weaker competition when he's in a lower class, may be totally thwarted when he meets stiff resistance when attempting such move. Is this a description of the greater GAMENESS of better-classed animals? Yes and no. Gameness is clearly a genuine phenomenon. However, without physical capability, it means little. And so a very in-form animal may appear to be game, while the same animal when out of form may appear a coward or a quitter.

I vote for this answer

[JustRalph]

DeanT

good stuff. pretty much what I find too.

I think the human connection, i.e. placing the horse in the right race speaks volumes when it comes to horses moving up in class.........enough said.

[upset]

That whole bounce theory has some merit but not as much as some delude themselves to believe. You can tell how much a race took out of the horse by how long it takes to cool out and by how much water it drinks(sometimes). A good horseman knows when to race back. It gets tough when the race you're looking for isn't in the book where you you want it to be. Once you have the horse fit its less likely to be sore after a race. First couple after a layoff or first couple of the season, yeah your horse is gonna be sore for 3-4 days maybe a week. Whenever I hear those "Ragozen Bounce Lovers" i think of Conquistador Cielo winning the Met in track record time than Woody brings him back 6 days later to win 12 furlong Belmont. I guess those Mr.Prospector colts don't bounce

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by upset

That whole bounce theory has some merit but not as much as some delude themselves to believe. You can tell how much a race took out of the horse by how long it takes to cool out and by how much water it drinks(sometimes). A good horseman knows when to race back. It gets tough when the race you're looking for isn't in the book where you you want it to be. Once you have the horse fit its less likely to be sore after a race. First couple after a layoff or first couple of the season, yeah your horse is gonna be sore for 3-4 days maybe a week. Whenever I hear those "Ragozen Bounce Lovers" i think of Conquistador Cielo winning the Met in track record time than Woody brings him back 6 days later to win 12 furlong Belmont. I guess those Mr.Prospector colts don't bounce

Sorry for going OT, but I thought it was interesting that Jimmy the Greek guaranteed CC would win the Belmont.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Is this speed determining where horse fit in the Class structure Tom???

That is part of it, but not the whole story.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I am somewhat ashamed to admit, that in almost 30 years of serious handicapping and betting, I have been unable to answer the following question, to my complete satisfaction.

Why do the majority of race horses fail to duplicate their speed and pace figures when they move up in class? I sometimes see horses rising in class, who figure to just dominate their field! They enjoy every possible advantage a horse could have over its competition. Superior early speed AND higher speed figures. And yet, the vast majority of the time, not only do they lose badly...they cannot even take the early lead! Some other, seemingly slower horse hooks them into a speed duel, and runs them into the ground.

What is it that makes even a small rise in class have such a negative impact on a horse's performance? What is it that prevents the cheaper horse from taking the lead and running the same early fractions that it does when it faces slightly inferior competition?

Is it a case of the higher class horses having the ability to intimidate the cheaper one "with a glance", like noted handicapping author Mark Cramer indicated in his book FORM CYCLES, or does it have more to do with trainer intent?

Is it that the trainer, thinking that his horse is outclassed today, and, having found a more suitable race for the horse in the near future, has told the jockey not to push the horse to the limits of its ability, and to save its best effort for the better race "next time"?

Could it be that class exists most prominently...in the trainer's head??

Not a bad question and the answer is as I stated in another post: “Class is a function of speed/pace, weight, distance, and style. As a horse moves up in class, the inherent ability of those factors from the competition gets better.

[shouldacoulda]

I recommend you read the handicappers condition book by James Quinn. Part of the phenomenon with the horse from mountaineer is the jockey. Deshawn Parker is the top jockey at mountaineer. He could get a mount on a goat and probably still get bet down to even money. For a while it seemed every horse Ramone Dominguez was on at aqueduct was starting below even money.

It has been my observation that winners in the last race tend to bounce more so at the lower class levels. How hard the horse was ridden has a lot to do with it also. How many times do you see a jockey whip the living daylights out of a horse when it's obvious he won't/can't win. It's like they think they are stepping on a gas pedal. That's where replays come in very handy. Did he win on a hand ride or was he beaten into winning? Was he backed off on to finish 3rd or 4th or did he fail despite the whipping? You could have this argument forever over which is more important class or speed. My answer is it depends. It depends on the competition and race shape. There is no clear cut answer and usually isn't when it comes to horse racing.