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Old 09-02-2017, 03:41 PM   #1
Hong Kong Turf
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Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 8
9/3 Sha Tin (Saturday Night US) - Analysis and Selections

Hi Everyone.

Starting with tonightís Sha Tin card, I am going to start posting some analysis of Hong Kong races here. Itís a long season, so will inevitably miss a few days here and there, but will aim to post on at least 1 race per card. There will be selections, but my emphasis will more on highlighting different statistics and insights that might be flying under the radar, and engaging with the community around different techniques and angles that work in Hong Kong. As we go, please keep me honest on how my analysis is holding up. Letís become better handicappers and make some money!

Most Likely Winner: Race 9 - #14, Travel Emperor

Letís start off with a horse worth staying up late for on the East Coast of the US. Travel Emperor was bet like a good thing and ran like it first time out in Hong Kong, winning a Class 4 with something left. I assigned him a speed figure of 99 Ė that ought to be competitive against Class 1 types, and here he gets in as the lightweight against a relatively average looking Class 3. Last year, Shum and Moreira won 33% of the races they teamed up on, and word is that heís trained well entering this season.

Moreira will obviously kill some of our value, but as I write this, Travel Emperor is at 4.4-1 (decimal odds) in the early betting. I canít imagine him going off that long, but Iíll be sending it in at 8-5 or better.

Other key contenders in the 9th include Fifty-Fifty (#6) who ran big to miss by a nose first out in HK from an outside draw and could improve, and Chung Wah Spirit, who teased at some big ability last season, but hasn't quite put it all together just yet. A live longshot to consider is Wonderful Fighter (#5), who doesnít run often, but always tends to run an honest race and fits well at the level (currently 70-1),

Feature Race Analysis and Key Trainer Angle: Race 3 Ė the HKSAR Chief Executiveís Cup (Class 1)

This is a tricky race. Blizzard is using this race as a spring board to a more lucrative race in Japan. He has a run a few races that have been top class and that would likely to take this, but is inconsistent and spots a minimum of 15 lbs to his rivals here. Throw in the fact that he may prepping, and I don't love the spot.

There are a number of alternative routes to go here, and it will be interesting to see how the handicaps affect the outcome, but I want to focus on several trainer angles around Southern Legend (#7). Casper Fownes is at his best when managing a developing young horse, hitting at a 30% clip (9/30) with a 47% ROI over the last 2 years moving a horse up in class off a win. He is live at a price (currently 12-1), and I like him to at least hit the board.

One more bold(ish) prediction: Shamal will find this group too tough and have his win streak snapped. He gets in outrageously light (carrying just 106 lbs with the apprentice), but on speed figures, simply doesnít measure up to the quality of this field and will face early pace pressure. Heís currently 5-1, and looks like a fade at that price.

Vulnerable Chalk: Race 5, #8 Yourthewonforme

One of the shortest prices on the card is Yourthewonforme (#8), who represents Frankie Lorís first starter as an independent trainer in Hong Kong. He was 2nd 4 times last season earning a couple of solid speed figures and is good enough to win, but he doesnít have much of an edge on this field, and is coming off a season in which he went 0 for 16.

Instead, I prefer Sakura Fighter (#3) who is dropping from Class 5-toClass 4, a move that Caspar Fownes excels with. Heís currently at 9.6-1. Another somewhat sneaky horse is Telecom Boom (#11). Heís in especially light, and there are a couple of above average trainer angles for the trainer Tsui. He is currently at 9.9-1. Overall, this seems like a decent place to potentially catch a long one.

Who do you all like?
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