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03-05-2016, 02:42 AM
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#76
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 807
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Current Bankroll: $275.90 (+$75.90 - 31 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP
Today's Selections:
CTX-7 Awake The Day (5/2)
DED-10 Wetlands (12/1)
DED-11 Brypooter (4/1)
FGX-11 Rebel Heart (5/1)
GGX-9 Diablos Angel (12/1)
HOU-1 Memeyer (2/1)
HOU-5 Threpeat (6/1)
MVR-6 Devil N Lace (9/2) & Up and Away (7/2) - Dutch & Exacta Box
MVR-7 Cinco Smiles (30/1)
RIL-5 Peppery (12/1)
SAX-8 Texas Two Step (12/1)
TAM-1 Play Seleil (10/1) & LaFanciulladelwest (12/1) - Dutch & Exacta Box
TAM-3 Thunder Harbor (8/5)
TAM-8 Big Awesome (8/1)
TPX-2 Takidom (9/2)
TUP-8 Silvertron (7/2)
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03-05-2016, 09:55 AM
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#77
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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03-05-2016, 01:44 PM
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#78
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
*LUCKY TO STAY HOME did not win
Bankroll currently $450...$50 Win-todays Prime Play:
--GULFSTREAM
11TH RACE TWIST 'N BAKE 15-1 ML
🎲NCG
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*SCRATCHED*
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03-05-2016, 01:55 PM
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#79
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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spot play
AQ 5TH 6 WILLIAM'S LUCKY GREY 12-1
DD 9TH 7 GREEN JUICE 6-1
FG 2ND 6 CITY SAGE 9/2
GPX 1ST 1 DANGEROUS BREW 6-1
PENN 7TH 7 TAPESPRIT 9/2
SUN 7TH 2 LEE'S GOLD 5-1
have a good day
🎲NCG
*Wasn't much to see, here---2 2nds, no wins
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03-05-2016, 03:57 PM
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#80
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 2,053
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gp r#9 W/P/S IM SHITTING MY PANTS OVER THIS ONE CURRENTLY 40-1
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03-06-2016, 03:30 AM
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#81
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 807
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger
Current Bankroll: $275.90 (+$75.90 - 31 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP
Today's Selections:
CTX-7 Awake The Day (5/2)
DED-10 Wetlands (12/1)
DED-11 Brypooter (4/1)
FGX-11 Rebel Heart (5/1)
GGX-9 Diablos Angel (12/1)
HOU-1 Memeyer (2/1)
HOU-5 Threpeat (6/1)
MVR-6 Devil N Lace (9/2) & Up and Away (7/2) - Dutch & Exacta Box
MVR-7 Cinco Smiles (30/1)
RIL-5 Peppery (12/1)
SAX-8 Texas Two Step (12/1)
TAM-1 Play Seleil (10/1) & LaFanciulladelwest (12/1) - Dutch & Exacta Box
TAM-3 Thunder Harbor (8/5)
TAM-8 Big Awesome (8/1)
TPX-2 Takidom (9/2)
TUP-8 Silvertron (7/2)
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CTX-7 Awake The Day (5/2) Didn't meet odds requirement
HOU-1 Memeyer (2/1) Didn't meet odds requirement
RIL-5 Peppery (12/1) 1st... 10.00 (30.00)
TAM-3 Thunder Harbor (8/5) Didn't meet odds requirement
TPX-2 Takidom (9/2) 1st... 10.00 (30.00)
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03-06-2016, 03:55 AM
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#82
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 807
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Current Bankroll: $245.90 (+$45.90 - 46 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP
Today's Selections:
GGX-4 Maximum Maximum (5/2)
GGX-6 Aalsmeer (10/1)
LAX-1 Lana Caprina (9/5)
OPX-2 Time Iz Flyin (10/1)
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03-06-2016, 08:47 AM
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#83
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger
Current Bankroll: $245.90 (+$45.90 - 46 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP
Today's Selections:
GGX-4 Maximum Maximum (5/2)
GGX-6 Aalsmeer (10/1)
LAX-1 Lana Caprina (9/5)
OPX-2 Time Iz Flyin (10/1)
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I like that AALSMEER pick @ GGF
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03-06-2016, 09:04 AM
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#84
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Spot Plays/Angles
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03-06-2016, 10:26 AM
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#85
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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*Wins like Favorites--Payoffs Higher
Gonna try something here...these are software selections--but they actually win. How much and how often--I don't know. I'm positive they win AT LEAST as often as Favorites (say 33% or 1/3rd)---but the mutuals are higher.
There are 30 picks here--so if they win like favorites--as I believe they do---we should win around 10 races. Just a guess--I'm gonna say the avg mutual for winning post-time favorites, would be around $4.80
So 10 wins @ avg $4.80--should return us $48.00, on the 30 wagers @ $2.00 per.
So roughly, betting favorites only--you would lose appx .20 cents on every dollar bet...or a $-1.60 ROI.
I think these 30 picks can do better. I didn't include ML odds--more fun to find out later--because these ARE NOT NECESSARILY ALL LOW ODDS SELECTIONS.
---So here they are--we'll see if they perform better than post-time favorites. I wouldn't honestly be a little surprised if they showed a profit. remember they have to return more than $60.00
AQUEDUCT-- R1-5 DUCASAS/ R2-1 VOIDED CONTRACT/R6-2 JAI ALAI/R7-4 IMASLOWPOKERODRIGUEZ
FGS --R1-6 GARRISON COMMANDER/R-4 2 MALACHITE/R-8 9 SAMANTHA'S PRIZE
GGF --R1 4 APERFECTDAYTOFLY/R-6 4 TRIBAL DUDE/R-7 4 IMPERIAL BADGER/ R-9 6 PRINCE CHARMANT
GPX --R-5 3 CLEAR STATUS/ R-6 4 BODACIOUS BABE
OP-- R-1 3 RULES OF WAR/ R-4 10 LAWYER DAGGETT/R-8 5 BOOTSY'S GIRL
PARX--R-2 2 CHANGE OF SEASONS/ R-3 3 THEN AND NOW/ R-7 1 DRUMROLL/ R-8 1 CASH IS PRIME
SA--R-1 5 JUST ONE MORE THING/ R-6 7 OPPORTUNISTIC
SUN-- R-8 8 STORM DUST
TAMPA-- R-1 3 MOUNT MERU/ R-7 4 TORAZO/ R-10 10 HOON
TPX-- R-6 FANCY HAT
TUP-- R-3 3 MASTERFUL STRIDE/R-4 7 SORULLO/ R-8 5 G T EL GATO
have a good day
🎲NCG
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03-06-2016, 11:29 AM
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#86
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Deftly Rated
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 1,103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
First, a thank you to Ellis Starr--mentioned to him a thread I had going, about 6.5F races....he said he would find the thread and weigh in--which he did. One thing I learned from Ellis a long time ago--he probably doesn't even remember this:
It was about maiden races---he said in racing, horses go up and down in class--depending on their current form.
But with maidens....the elevator only goes one way--DOWN. Once maidens drop in class--there is no going back up.
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Ellis Starr is a fine handicapper. I know this because we used to spend hours together wagering at the Lancaster, CA satellite wagering facility before he moved to Lexington, and the one thing I noticed is that we rarely agreed on our selections.
Not to disparage Ellis, because neither of us were always right, and at the same time, neither of us were always wrong, but I disagree with his assessment that maidens can only drop.
One of my favorite longshot angles refutes this philosophy. The simple premise of the angle is this: When a horse drops in class in his last race, finishes out-of-the-money, and then steps back up in class today, makes him a contender to be wary of.
I once caught an 0 for 32 maiden that utilized this angle, and went off 12-1 & won. Take a look at these contenders, and let me know what you think. The hit-rate isn't a high number, but the high odds make the angle a profitable one. It is an awesome way to find contenders at high odds to be utilized in your wagering strategy (i.e. Pik4/6 contender spreads)
Carry on, carry on,
Hajck
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03-06-2016, 11:59 AM
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#87
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hajck Hillstrom
Ellis Starr is a fine handicapper. I know this because we used to spend hours together wagering at the Lancaster, CA satellite wagering facility before he moved to Lexington, and the one thing I noticed is that we rarely agreed on our selections.
Not to disparage Ellis, because neither of us were always right, and at the same time, neither of us were always wrong, but I disagree with his assessment that maidens can only drop.
One of my favorite longshot angles refutes this philosophy. The simple premise of the angle is this: When a horse drops in class in his last race, finishes out-of-the-money, and then steps back up in class today, makes him a contender to be wary of.
I once caught an 0 for 32 maiden that utilized this angle, and went off 12-1 & won. Take a look at these contenders, and let me know what you think. The hit-rate isn't a high number, but the high odds make the angle a profitable one. It is an awesome way to find contenders at high odds to be utilized in your wagering strategy (i.e. Pik4/6 contender spreads)
Carry on, carry on,
Hajck
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Who runs 0-32 maidens? If you win, where are you going to go with it then?
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03-06-2016, 12:30 PM
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#88
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Deftly Rated
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 1,103
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Here are a 6 examples of horses stepping back up in class today (3/6/16) after a drop and an out-of-money finish
AQU4 (30-1)
AQU6 (10-1)
GP8 (15-1)
SA2 (8-1)
SA2 (6-1)
SA2 (12-1)
Best bet, IMHO, is the JAI ALAI (10-1) in AQU's 6th.
Live first time starter
GP9 (15-1) Dam has thrown 2 first time outing winners of the 3 that have raced. Allbetrani/Caraballo show a 450% profit with their turf sprinters.
Last edited by Hajck Hillstrom; 03-06-2016 at 12:31 PM.
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03-06-2016, 12:47 PM
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#89
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Deftly Rated
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 1,103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
Who runs 0-32 maidens? If you win, where are you going to go with it then?
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It was @ Woodbine ..... `nuff said.
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03-06-2016, 06:29 PM
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#90
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Greg, that was a hell of a tough beat in the 6th at SA. That Baffert ran a monster race to deny you in there.
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