Churchill Downs. Are you listening? Tapeta!

[mountainman]

Racing on all-weather tracks may be thrilling, competitive, and, for all I know, supremely decipherable to some. But horse racing it is not. At least in my book.

Whatever it is, I do not consider it "horse racing."

That opinion years ago cost me the friendship of a certain mad genius/surface-scientist.

Do not hesitate to brand me a dinosaur. I take that as a compliment. Maybe I just lack the discipline and imagination to adapt, but synthetics get no play from this stegosaurus. Ever. Not one dollar.

Nor will I even watch a synthetic contest if there is paint drying close by to train my vision on.

[Robert Fischer]

Churchill as synthetic would be ridiculous.

The CEO of Woodbine who oversaw and for all I know made a deal to switch Woodbine from 'Polytrack' to 'Tapeta' in 2015, the year he became Chairman of Woodbine... advocating a Churchill switch... is ridiculous.

I sprinkled some Ol' Jay seasoning on a Coddie today and it made my day.

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by Augenj

Churchill Downs. Are you listening? Tapeta!

ROFL

Must we again recite the age old question:

When was the last time a North American track switched from a dirt surface to a synthetic surface?

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

we definitely need more Tapeta, and Woodbine is a success story which more need to listen to and absorb

but not at CD

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

CEO of Woodbine making a tapeta 'pitch'...

Jim Lawson became CEO of Woodbine in 2015. Shortly after, Woodbine switched from 'Polytrack' to 'Tapeta' in 2015 (I believe 2016 may have been the first Woodbine Tapeta race).

The biases of promoting the Woodbine 'brand', as well as his role of chairman, with associations of success and horse safety, pose a significant conflict of interest..
A red flag that compromises the integrity of this promotion.��

That alone is enough to take these promotions with a grain of salt.

I have no information regarding whether or not he also has any stake in Tapeta the company, or in construction processes such as overseeing installation of Tapeta, maintenance of Tapeta etc...

ROFL - in what way is Woodbine "a success story" ???

The clown who stepped in there, and quickly made the clueless move to continue on with synthetic, used absurd data and hoodwinked people on a board who were dumber than he is into committing to that pathetic surface for another wasted chunk of time.

Go back and look at his statistics:

When wanting to fool his constituents into committing to another round of synthetic surfaces, Lawson cited field sizes which had increased since 2008... thinking nobody would notice that a giant recession had bottomed-out many things at that point. He inspired those clowns to glad-hand everyone and congratulate one another on increased field sizes.

Of course, as anyone with half a brain can understand, the only proper comparison at the time was pre-synthetic (2006) with post-synthetic... where his field sizes took it on the chin. Furthermore, while turf field sizes at Woodbine were up during that same period, synthetic field sizes were markedly down.

Handle? The only appropriate comparison would be between handle such as it is presently mired at Woodbine, vs. that which would be current had they retained a dirt surface.

Lawson wouldn't know true "success" if it hit him between the eyes.

Originally Posted by Augenj

Interesting that the opinions here don't mention the statistical differences among dirt, turf, and synthetic surfaces. It's pretty black and white.

"In the Jockey Club Equine Injury Database (EID) for the year 2022, injuries on dirt were 1.44 per 1,000 horse starts. Turf injuries were 0.99 per 1,000. Injuries on synthetic were vastly diminished with 0.41 per 1000. This data shows that synthetic surfaces are 3.5 times safer than dirt and 2.2 times safer than turf. These statistics are compelling in showing the exponential safety of today's synthetic surfaces over dirt and turf."

https://paulickreport.com/news/ray-s...%20than%20turf.

Yeah, the only thing "black and white" about those and most all synthetic track stats is that the crappiest tracks with the crappiest horses are always on the side of the "dirt" tracks. You keep forgetting that synthetic surfaces are only available to the tracks with the higher revenue and the better horses. When horses break down at some county fair meeting that nobody has ever heard of, they always land on the side of "dirt", and that renders the long-trumpeted statistics about horse safety related to synthetic surfaces almost meaningless.

Originally Posted by Profesor

Gulfstream installed Tapeta 2 years ago and it’s run into the ground their handle has been down 25% or more,since then,NYRA is installing Tapeta at Belmont hopefully they will use it in the winter and only for off the turf races during turf season spring,summer,fall if they start to card races on Tapeta during the turf season they will have the same faith as the dummy Gulfstream operators same goes for CD if they go that route

You make no mention of the lack of turf racing at GP this summer as being at least a chunk of the cause of handle decline. Of course Gulfstream should only use their crappy synthetic surface to hedge against the once semi-common 3-horse fields in off-the-turf situations.

Originally Posted by mountainman

Racing on all-weather tracks may be thrilling, competitive, and, for all I know, supremely decipherable to some. But horse racing it is not. At least in my book.

Whatever it is, I do not consider it "horse racing."

That opinion years ago cost me the friendship of a certain mad genius/surface-scientist.

Do not hesitate to brand me a dinosaur. I take that as a compliment. Maybe I just lack the discipline and imagination to adapt, but synthetics get no play from this stegosaurus. Ever. Not one dollar.

Nor will I even watch a synthetic contest if there is paint drying close by to train my vision on.

The mad genius leans more and more toward "mad", and less and less toward "genius" with every year that passes in the quarter century since 1998.


Synthetic-track racing is akin to that stupid little horse game you had when you were a kid, where magnets lurked below a race course and four horses you held in your hand: The field would start side-by-side, and then take single file order around each turn, and somehow, some way, they would all land together side-by-side upon reaching the wire, with a photo finish required for almost every contest.


So lets end where we started:

When was the last time a North American horse racing track removed a dirt racing surface and installed a synthetic racing surface in its place?


Hell, why don't we bring back the magic Tartan surface from the 1960's??

(does anyone even know whether horse safety statistics were better for Tartan than they are for all of these other pathetic surfaces which have been shoved down the throats of horseplayers?)

Surely they must've been - maybe Jim Lawson can finesse some data to prove as much for his next silly endeavor?

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

ROFL

Must we again recite the age old question:

When was the last time a North American track switched from a dirt surface to a synthetic surface?






ROFL - in what way is Woodbine "a success story" ???

The clown who stepped in there, and quickly made the clueless move to continue on with synthetic, used absurd data and hoodwinked people on a board who were dumber than he is into committing to that pathetic surface for another wasted chunk of time.

Go back and look at his statistics:

When wanting to fool his constituents into committing to another round of synthetic surfaces, Lawson cited field sizes which had increased since 2008... thinking nobody would notice that a giant recession had bottomed-out many things at that point. He inspired those clowns to glad-hand everyone and congratulate one another on increased field sizes.

Of course, as anyone with half a brain can understand, the only proper comparison at the time was pre-synthetic (2006) with post-synthetic... where his field sizes took it on the chin. Furthermore, while turf field sizes at Woodbine were up during that same period, synthetic field sizes were markedly down.

Handle? The only appropriate comparison would be between handle such as it is presently mired at Woodbine, vs. that which would be current had they retained a dirt surface.

Lawson wouldn't know true "success" if it hit him between the eyes.



Yeah, the only thing "black and white" about those and most all synthetic track stats is that the crappiest tracks with the crappiest horses are always on the side of the "dirt" tracks. You keep forgetting that synthetic surfaces are only available to the tracks with the higher revenue and the better horses. When horses break down at some county fair meeting that nobody has ever heard of, they always land on the side of "dirt", and that renders the long-trumpeted statistics about horse safety related to synthetic surfaces almost meaningless.



You make no mention of the lack of turf racing at GP this summer as being at least a chunk of the cause of handle decline. Of course Gulfstream should only use their crappy synthetic surface to hedge against the once semi-common 3-horse fields in off-the-turf situations.



The mad genius leans more and more toward "mad", and less and less toward "genius" with every year that passes in the quarter century since 1998.


Synthetic-track racing is akin to that stupid little horse game you had when you were a kid, where magnets lurked below a race course and four horses you held in your hand: The field would start side-by-side, and then take single file order around each turn, and somehow, some way, they would all land together side-by-side upon reaching the wire, with a photo finish required for almost every contest.


So lets end where we started:

When was the last time a North American horse racing track removed a dirt racing surface and installed a synthetic racing surface in its place?


Hell, why don't we bring back the magic Tartan surface from the 1960's??

(does anyone even know whether horse safety statistics were better for Tartan than they are for all of these other pathetic surfaces which have been shoved down the throats of horseplayers?)

Surely they must've been - maybe Jim Lawson can finesse some data to prove as much for his next silly endeavor?

I'm definitely not an all weather all the time guy, but this is a success story

https://woodbine.com/woodbine-news/w...ndle-for-2022/

The fact that Woodbine had record handle last year, especially on the Thoroughbred side, means that synthetic was not a barrier to their success, plus they have fewer fatalities on average, helps with longer term license to operate, which isn't going away as an issue

The most important thing of all, is we have WEG promoting this fact eagerly, which is good for their long term support of the industry in Ontario and Canada and North America if they ever choose to branch out

Nice to have an organization actually promoting the wagering side of the sport, and the thoroughbred industry in general

There are three surface categories - dirt, turf and synthetic - some like one, some like all, its kind of like music

Find me a musician who everyone likes - Van Morrison maybe, anyone else?

Viva la difference!

And long live Royal Mountaineer

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

ROFL - in what way is Woodbine "a success story" ???

It's about the brand, not any metrics of success. Just the Brand.

If you want to associate your Brand with a good story, then others should take your 'pitch' with a grain of salt.

Handle was good this year. Raw handle. I don't know how factors like inflation and volume(number of races), or other possibly significant factors would measure last year's record handle.
Regardless, Woodbine has shown to have competent management.

Anyway, that's not the point.

it's just about having a Brand and then promoting it with your chosen statistics and good story ( and promoting a HUGE industry project and radical change, which may well also involve your kickbacks!! lol).

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

It's about the brand, not any metrics of success. Just the Brand.

If you want to associate your Brand with a good story, then others should take your 'pitch' with a grain of salt.

Handle was good this year. Raw handle. I don't know how factors like inflation and volume(number of races), or other possibly significant factors would measure last year's record handle.
Regardless, Woodbine has shown to have competent management.

Anyway, that's not the point.

it's just about having a Brand and then promoting it with your chosen statistics and good story ( and promoting a HUGE industry project and radical change, which may well also involve your kickbacks!! lol).

Woodbine all sources handle 2015 $438M

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...odbine-in-2015

Woodbine all sources handle 2022 $621M (+41.8% + an all time high)

https://paulickreport.com/news/the-b...track-history/

+ Record Kings Plate handle in 2023

https://www.drf.com/news/record-hand...-card-woodbine

NYRA all sources handle 2015 $2.24B
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...s_Increase_123

NYRA all sources handle 2022 $2.32B (+3.6%, and Saratoga down 8.8% in 2023)
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...0Race%20Course.

https://www.drf.com/news/saratoga-ha...ared-last-year

(not sure where the Jim Lawson, potential conflict of interest thing comes into this, if it does, who cares if its working?)

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

Woodbine all sources handle 2015 $438M

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...odbine-in-2015

Woodbine all sources handle 2022 $621M (+41.8% + an all time high)

https://paulickreport.com/news/the-b...track-history/

+ Record Kings Plate handle in 2023

https://www.drf.com/news/record-hand...-card-woodbine

NYRA all sources handle 2015 $2.24B
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...s_Increase_123

NYRA all sources handle 2022 $2.32B (+3.6%, and Saratoga down 8.8% in 2023)
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...0Race%20Course.

https://www.drf.com/news/saratoga-ha...ared-last-year

(not sure where the Jim Lawson, potential conflict of interest thing comes into this, if it does, who cares if its working?)

NYRA ran 237 racing days in 2015 and 196 in 2022. That would be an average of $9,451,477 per racing day in 2015 and $11,836,735 in 2022...or an increase of over 25% for each racing day.

[Robert Fischer]

I do not know the accuracy of this internet inflation calculator;

supposedly 438 in 2015 is worth 540 in 2022

Twitter

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

---

Last edited by Robert Fischer; 09-25-2023 at 06:40 PM. Reason: 2022 not 2023

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

Woodbine all sources handle 2015 $438M

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...odbine-in-2015

Woodbine all sources handle 2022 $621M (+41.8% + an all time high)

https://paulickreport.com/news/the-b...track-history/[/url]

(not sure where the Jim Lawson, potential conflict of interest thing comes into this, if it does, who cares if its working?)

so allowing for a large error and the sake of conversation;

438 =540

540 ---> 621 That would then be a 15% increase.

That is excellent. That's before allowing for the amount of racing days. The weather. Competion in the industry. Etc. etc...

any way you crunch it, I'd say that Woodbine seems to have competent management.
good.

Yet, a proposal of converting Churchill Downs to Tapeta is ridiculous.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I do not know the accuracy of this internet inflation calculator;

supposedly 438 in 2015 is worth 540 in 2022

You are correct in noting that you have to adjust for inflation when evaluating handle because incomes and expenses are rising but at times people are getting squeezed (like now).

Personally I think you should throw out the entire pandemic period (good and bad). The entire gambling industry was in turmoil and the government was handing out free money for quite awhile. So things got wiped out for awhile, but then there was pent up demand and extra free cash.

I'm not sure why 2015 should be the starting point.

I'm not even sure things like number of races or race days present a truly accurate picture of handle health. If people have X disposable income to gamble with, to at least some extent they will gamble more or less per day depending on how many days their favorite track is racing.

I think you have look at the long term trends in all the factors so the weather, recessions, inflation and other high variance shorter term stuff gets normalized out of the data.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I do not know the accuracy of this internet inflation calculator;

supposedly 438 in 2015 is worth 540 in 2022

https://twitter.com/jason_kassa/stat...38176372408683

That is either wrong or you put the numbers in the wrong boxes. The value of the dollar has definitely not gone up.

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

You are correct in noting that you have to adjust for inflation when evaluating handle because incomes and expenses are rising but at times people are getting squeezed (like now).

Personally I think you should throw out the entire pandemic period (good and bad). The entire gambling industry was in turmoil and the government was handing out free money for quite awhile. So things got wiped out for awhile, but then there was pent up demand and extra free cash.

I'm not sure why 2015 should be the starting point.

I'm not even sure things like number of races or race days present a truly accurate picture of handle health. If people have X disposable income to gamble with, to at least some extent they will gamble more or less per day depending on how many days their favorite track is racing.

I think you have look at the long term trends in all the factors so the weather, recessions, inflation and other high variance shorter term stuff gets normalized out of the data.

Most likely, more widely available sports betting for the past year or so has been eating away at what otherwise would have been larger horse racing handle in the US, and that is not as much of an issue in Canada, where they actually look out for encouraging too much abuse, surely an issue here in the US as well, but we haven't dealt with it (yet)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...ario-1.6950541

Same in the UK where they are (somewhat controversially) looking to institute legislation on affordability checks

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...ing-commission

COVID brought a upsurge of interest in racing in the US of course, for a few months it was all their was from a sports perspective - but rather than capture that opportunity and expand on it, it has largely now been frittered away

I was very much looking forward to Saratoga 2023, and was lucky to attend one of the few nice days (Aug 3) without some form of travesty, had I been there for the Mel or NY Thunder disasters, I may never have wanted to go back, which is hard to imagine, but the shine is off the place now, what a shame and I'm certain it isn't just me

Sure, some will look the other way and continue as if nothing happened or is changing, and I'm often a foolish optimist myself - when I started going to Belmont by myself at age 14 in 1974, all the talk was: the sport is dead or dying, only older people play it, how do we attract younger people, expert writers moaning, blah blah blah - 50 some odd years later and its all pretty much exactly the same

HK and Japan succeed because they offer a quality product, and for all the problems in the UK, Cheltenham is a prime example of a successful, popular festival that isn't going away ever, because it is a quality product that appeals to everyone, same with racing in Australia for the most part, even the Little Brown Jug is a prime example of what racing is and can be on the harness side, coming from the Fairs, harness racing at its roots works, it is in the blood in PEI where the Gold Cup and Saucer is so very cool and underrated/largely unknown here

That's why the disastrous Saratoga meeting was such a problem, like with most things, playing to one's strengths is the best way to build success, and racing isn't doing that here in the US, unlike pretty much everywhere else

The excellent Fox broadcasts are something to build on, that's a well oiled machine which is working, people like Mountainman here also are testaments to what the sport should be and needs to be - he is our Jenny Chapman

But there are many forces now working against racing, breeding for speed and fragility, undetected drugs (one can be fairly sure), CRW eating away at opportunity (or at least the perception), jackpot pick 6 wagers (slowly eating away at average turnover, without which the sport continues to fade away), on and on things posted here repeatedly

What does racing need to do to stop the slippery slide?

Start with what's working, consider all aspects of the impacts of racing and actively make them better - some of that is happening, but we need much more, and it doesn't help to hide from the issues that are obvious also, it just makes people think the sport isn't looking out for them

More Tapeta is needed, but only where it should be, that would help - and that includes Saratoga, with all the rainy summers, you actually would have higher handle if there wasn't half a season with off the turf mud racing, which is a horrible product - but leave CD and Del Mar alone, if it isn't broke, don't fix it - if it isn't raining, run on the turf, but fix the damn Spa surfaces and make them safer, hopefully there's a finding on that soon, no more ostrich like head burying should be tolerated, too much is on the line

Trust is broken, and without trust or integrity what you have is a house of cards, and that's not sustainable, especially when it is also increasingly perceived to be a stacked deck

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

COVID brought a upsurge of interest in racing in the US of course, for a few months it was all their was from a sports perspective - but rather than capture that opportunity and expand on it, it has largely now been frittered away

"Frittered away..."

You mean to say...ALL THE COMPETITION CAME BACK EVENTUALLY

right?

RIGHT?

[bisket]

Question…. HISA has been around 1/2 a year. Churchill moved racing to another track before HISA came down on them. Saratoga was at the brink of having to move their races, and HISA didn’t have the authority at the time to do it. It’s looking like HISA will have the authority to shut a track down in the near future. So if I owned a dirt track I’d plan accordingly. Anyone with a turf or Tapeta surface worried about a date with the henchman? So you can take all those statistics and throw them out the window.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by bisket

Saratoga was at the brink of having to move their races

No they weren't